The Chinese Century?
EmailBy Mike Mokrzycki
ABC News Polling Unit
The “American Century” was sooo last century, as many Americans see it.
Around half the public thinks the United States will play a smaller role in world affairs and the world economy in the 21st Century than it did in the 20th. And the public divides about evenly in this ABC News/Washington Post poll on whether the 21st will be more of another American Century – or, rather, a Chinese one.
When it comes to dominance in world affairs, the public divides by a close 43-38 percent on whether it’ll be a Chinese or an American Century ahead. (Fifteen percent volunteer that it’ll be a mix of the two, or someone else’s.) In terms of economic clout it’s an even closer split: 41 percent expect a Chinese Century, 40 percent an American one.
Significant numbers – but not majorities – see a diminished role for the United States in economic and global affairs as a downer; 43 and 39 percent, respectively, say this would be a bad thing. As many, though, say it would be a neutral development, and some – 15 and 19 percent, respectively – even see it as a positive.
Time co-founder Henry Luce is credited with coining the phrase “American Century” in a 1941 essay, shortly before the country entered World War II, as he argued against isolationism. Fast-forward seven decades and tectonic shifts in global economics raise questions about the future of America’s role on the world stage.
Fifty-three percent in this poll foresee a smaller U.S. economic role this century than last, vs. 26 percent larger and 18 percent about the same. In world affairs, 46 percent see a smaller U.S. role, vs. 32 percent larger and 19 percent about the same. (In a Gallup poll a year ago, 40 percent said China already was the world’s leading economic power vs. 33 percent for the United States – a sharp reversal from May 2000, when 65 percent picked the United States and just 10 percent China.)
Among groups, the most consistent differences are by education: College graduates are more apt than those without a degree to see a shrinking U.S. role in world affairs and the global economy, and to view the 21st as more likely a Chinese than American Century in both realms. Men are at least a little more likely than women also to see things that way. And Republicans are more dour in some of these views, perhaps not as much reflecting their views of the entire century ahead, but their lower confidence in the current administration in Washington.
Click here for the poll questions and results.
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Every civilization has an arc, and every arc has an apogee. I’d put the apogee of the United States at August 6th, 1945, the day we bombed Hiroshima.
Downhill since that moment.
Posted by: Nat Ehrlich | February 25, 2010, 12:15 pm 12:15 pm
We may have the culture, the history of freedom and innovation, etc., but they have the numbers.
And, thanks largely to our own corporations’ mindless rush for their own 15 minutes of cheaper manufacturing costs, and the resulting wholesale off-shoring of American jobs and technologies, they now also have a booming economy.
Soon they will have what goes with that, which is a dominating military presence, and highly visible technological feats like a Mars mission.
Our best bet to remain relevant, and perhaps dominant, is to take this as the challenge that it is, by seizing on some worthy goals like addressing climate change and new energy technologies, and throwing our creative might at new industries in those areas.
As for the numbers, it would probably be wise to start working more closely with the EU, which, many Americans will be surprised to learn, is also larger then the US.
Posted by: bco | February 26, 2010, 11:31 am 11:31 am
America’s greater global economic and military influence did not come into existence until after World War 2…
There for to claim the 20th century America’s is misleading and half truth.
Will China eclipse the once American empire built on Coca cola, Marlboro cigarettes and KFC?
Yes it will.
Will america continue to shrink into 3rd world status as it fails to adopt strong education policies and rebuild its aging infrastructure, because of warmongering policies?.. Yes
Do the Chinese yearn to be the #1 military super power? NO. 5000 years of history suggests otherwise.
For American war hawks/ and a thriving right wing media it would be easy to brush paint a new cold war with “middle earth,” and continue the arrogance of spreading a mythical american culture to all four corners of the world solely based on profit.
Warhawks would also want to appease shareholders who have invested in america’s sole manufacturing base. The industrial military complex.
Posted by: steve | March 5, 2010, 9:34 pm 9:34 pm
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Posted by: steve | March 5, 2010, 9:58 pm 9:58 pm
Might be for the better; our leaders are always trying to tell other countries how to run their affairs when we cannot ever handle our own affiars, and we have spent more money and time at war than any other country on the planet. It seems to me that the Chinese and Russians have demonstrated a more mature judgement when it comes to international affairs.
Posted by: Shawn Irwin | March 12, 2010, 5:47 am 5:47 am
The Obama administration is determined to hasten America’s entry to 2nd class status. Rather than boost infrastructure, R&D, math and science, the administration serves the interests of the ABA and AMA and SEIU.
Without a return to the values of hard work, innovation, and responsibility, the U.S. will be working for China, Indonesia, Africa, and Middle Eastern nations in the future.
Posted by: Rick Gordon | March 23, 2010, 6:58 pm 6:58 pm
U.K. consumer confidence fell to a 20-month low in November as the looming government budget squeeze dented Britons’ outlook for 2011, Nationwide Building Society said.
The index of sentiment slipped 7 points from October to 45, the lowest since March 2009, the customer-owned lender said in an e-mailed report today. The gauge has now fallen for three consecutive months. The measure of consumers’ future expectations fell 9 points to 61, also a 20-month low. cheap nike shoes
Prime Minister David Cameron’s drive to tackle the record budget deficit with the deepest spending cuts since World War II threatens to slow economic growth. The squeeze will eliminate 330,000 public-sector jobs and increase sales tax to 20 percent next year from its current level of 17.5 percent.
“The strong rally in sentiment that took place from the middle of 2009 into the first quarter of this year has now been almost completely reversed,” Martin Gahbauer, chief economist at Swindon, England-based Nationwide, said in a statement. “The fall in confidence can largely be attributed to consumers growing increasingly cautious over the outlook.”
Posted by: max-sky | December 17, 2010, 3:46 am 3:46 am