Presidential Wave: Obama in Spotlight on Year’s Biggest Primary Day

By Rick Klein:

Now we see what the noise is all about. Kingmakers are set to lose some rank on Tuesday, in the single most intense and important day of voting we’re likely to see until November. Four races tell four different stories, all with their own implications. But what unites them is a reaction against the political establishment that will influence campaigns and candidates for the next six months and well beyond. And with the wave coming, President Obama stands on the shore, though well within the splash zone. (How loudly does it speak that the president will be just outside the Pennsylvania border — in Youngstown, Ohio, on Tuesday — while Vice President Joe Biden spent Monday night in Philadelphia, and neither found time to campaign for Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., in the closing days?) A president who isn’t on the ballot is everywhere on this voting day, even as he stays away from places that are actually voting. A candidate who came to office promising to up-end the establishment has established himself just fine, it turns out. In Specter’s primary race against Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Pa., the president and the political movement he leads are being put to the test among core Democrats. In a rural corner of that same state, white, working-class Democrats render judgment on the Democratic agenda, by choosing a successor for the late Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., who embodied and enriched his district for more than three decades. In Arkansas, big labor and the liberal Netroots united behind Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in his primary against Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark. — the candidate with the Obama/establishment backing. In Kentucky, the tea party movement that defines itself so much around what it doesn’t like about Obama seems poised to claim its biggest victory, with Rand Paul, R-Ky., favored over Trey Grayson — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s candidate. (And in Connecticut, some second-guessing — and maybe quite a bit more — Tuesday about Richard Blumenthal’s campaign for Senate. Where does this rank in the oppo hall of fame? What was wrong with Sen. Chris Dodd again? And is it that hard to make clear whether you did or didn’t serve in Vietnam?) In Kentucky, polls opened at 6 a.m. ET and close at 7 p.m. ET. In Pennsylvania, polls are open from 7 a.m. ET to 8 p.m. ET. In Arkansas, polls open at 8:30 a.m. ET and close at 8:30 p.m. ET. In Oregon, all ballots for the state’s mail-in voting must be received by 11 p.m. ET. Your big lessons: “One big question that could be answered is how strong outsiders' appeal is in a year in which dissatisfaction with Washington is broad and deep. Paul's campaign in Kentucky has been grounded in this message, and Sestak, too, has cast Specter as the ultimate insider. In the special election in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District, Burns has done the same to Democrat Critz, although he was only a congressional staffer,” Dan Balz writes in The Washington Post.  “Another answer that might emerge is how enthusiastic voters in the two parties are, measured in part by turnout. Special elections are not always reliable indicators of midterm outcomes, but if Democrats manage to hold onto the Murtha seat in Pennsylvania, strategists in both parties may be forced to recalibrate the GOP's prospects for taking control of the House in November.” That piece that’s on the ballot everywhere: “The Democratic Party also faces a brewing rebellion among the white, working-class voters within its ranks — people it needs to form a national governing majority,” The Wall Street Journal’s Peter Wallsten writes. “Democratic strategists said their party faces great peril if it is unable to find candidates this year who can shore up the connection with white, blue-collar voters who are trending toward the GOP. Mr. Obama won election in 2008 thanks largely to highly energized minority voters and liberal whites, but white voters like these in northeastern Pennsylvania were crucial to building a majority.”  Time’s Jay Newton-Small: “The real story of this week's primaries and special elections may be the Democrats' intraparty war, as groups impatient – or disillusioned – with the Obama Administration take aim at incumbents.” As for the marquee matchup — the one that will draw the biggest headlines on Wednesday: “I'm a lucky guy,” Specter said at a Monday night campaign stop, at a drizzly Phillies game. “I don't predict the weather. I predict the victories.” Said Sestak: “His time truly has come and gone.” Dick Polman, in the Philadelphia Inquirer: “The intangibles would seem to favor Sestak [Tuesday]; the two-term suburban Philadelphia congressman is a relatively fresh face, whereas, given the current environment, Specter may well have worn out his extended welcome. … Word has it that Specter, at age 80, still plays a fiercely competitive game of squash. In the macho environs of The Sporting Club in Philadelphia, facing off against foes decades younger, he grunts and plays the angles, as always. But one gets the sense that, politically at least, the walls may be closing in.”  What else needs to be known about the president’s role? “President Barack Obama says he loves Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) — just not quite enough to hazard an 11th-hour political trip to Pennsylvania for an ally of convenience increasingly viewed as unlikely to win,” Politico’s Jonathan Martin and Glenn Thrush write. “Once thought to be an unalloyed asset for most any Democratic candidate, Obama’s personal involvement is no longer guaranteed – or guaranteed to succeed. … Tuesday’s crop of primaries and special elections vividly illustrate the challenge for Obama: the number of races where he can have a positive impact has been narrowed by 18 months of constant political warfare, Democratic electoral defeats and his own missteps.” “In a race this close the logistics of turnout operations could be pivotal,” Dennis B. Rody and James O'Toole write in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “Mr. Specter, with the support of the state Democratic establishment and most of the state's unions, inherited a ready-made Election Day apparatus. Mr. Sestak had to build one from scratch. Mr. Specter is hoping for a disproportionately heavy turnout from Philadelphia, particularly in the African-American wards where, polls suggest, he had heavy support.”  Would a late Obama visit have mattered? “It might jack up turnout, so it might affect 1 percent of the overall vote, but probably not,” Gov. Ed Rendell, D-Pa., said on ABC/Washington Post’s “Top Line” Monday. “People know where the president stands. I mean guys, you have to be here and watch TV. I love Barack Obama, but I'm sick and tired of seeing him on TV.” In PA-12 — pressure on the other side: “If Republicans can’t win Murtha’s district, Democrats say, then how can they expect to capture the 40 Democratic-held seats they need to win the majority in what GOP officials anticipate will be a great year for the party?” Roll Call’s Greg Giroux reports.  Slate’s John Dickerson: “If Democrats pull out a win, it may signal that an all-out push can save marginal seats in a year that favors Republicans. If they can't, Republicans can feel a little bit better about those 49 districts John McCain won in 2008 that also elected incumbent Democrats.” In Arkansas: “Can a centrist senator survive in this pugilistic day of ‘pick a side’?” asks Suzi Parker, in the Christian Science Monitor. “[Lincoln's] best hope is that she'll live to fight another round. Her worst nightmare: She'll be out early, bested in the Democratic primary by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who is running decidedly to her left.” In Kentucky: “Should Paul pull off a coup in Kentucky, the win will speak volumes not only about the current anti-establishment fervor, but also about the growing disconnect between the Republican Party establishment and grass-roots conservatives,” McClatchy’s William Douglas and Halimah Abdullah report. “For many tea party members, Paul has come to symbolize the anti-incumbent, anti-Washington insurgency. He has the backing of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a tea party favorite, and evangelical leader James Dobson, who's called his earlier support for Grayson ‘an embarrassing mistake.’ ” Walter Shapiro, at Politics Daily: “Rand Paul victory Tuesday night signifies six more months of Kentucky as one of the biggest national playing fields for Tea Party-style politics.” Grayson’s closing argument, argumentative: “I think he’d be more of a grandstander,” Grayson said Monday of Paul, per Politico’s Manu Raju. “I’m running to be a United States senator from Kentucky, I’m not running to be the candidate of the tea party … Listen to his speeches, watch him in our debates. … The guy never talks about our state.” Looking beyond Tuesday — a big blow to a top-tier recruit, in Connecticut. “We have learned something important since the days that I served in Vietnam,” state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal said to a veterans group in March 2008. The New York Times’ Raymond Hernandez: “There was one problem: Mr. Blumenthal, a Democrat now running for the United States Senate, never served in Vietnam. He obtained at least five military deferments from 1965 to 1970 and took repeated steps that enabled him to avoid going to war, according to records.” “The deferments allowed Mr. Blumenthal to complete his studies at Harvard; pursue a graduate fellowship in England; serve as a special assistant to The Washington Post’s publisher, Katharine Graham; and ultimately take a job in the Nixon White House.” “In 1970, with his last deferment in jeopardy, he landed a coveted spot in the Marine Reserve, which virtually guaranteed that he would not be sent to Vietnam. He joined a unit in Washington that conducted drills and other exercises and focused on local projects, like fixing a campground and organizing a Toys for Tots drive.” Statement from Mindy Myers, Blumenthal’s campaign manager, in advance of a campaign event with veterans on Tuesday: “The New York Times story is an outrageous distortion of Dick Blumenthal's record of service. Unlike many of his peers, Dick Blumenthal voluntarily joined the Marine Corps Reserves in 1970 and served for six months in Parris Island, SC and six years in the reserves.  He received no special treatment from anyone.” From Kevin Rennie’s “Daily Ructions” blog — as circulated by the McMahon campaign (!): “The Blumenthal Bombshell comes at the end of more than 2 months of deep, persistent research by Republican Linda McMahon’s Senate campaign. It gave the explosive Norwalk video recording to The Times. This is what comes of $16 million, a crack opposition research operation and an opponent who, in the words of the president Blumenthal worked for on a draft deferment, who gave them the sword.” Also Tuesday — President Obama hits Youngstown, Ohio, talking jobs. ABC’s Sunlen Miller: “While there Mr. Obama will tour the V & M Star facility, a producer of ‘seamless Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG), Line & Standard Pipe, Coupling Stock and Mechanical Tube.’ White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said yesterday the business – through an investment by the Recovery Act – was recently able to hire several hundred new workers.” Stop us if you’ve heard this one before … “Democrats Shifting Focus Back to Jobs Creation,” reads The New York Times headline. “A year that Democrats decreed would be about ‘jobs, jobs, jobs’ has produced a far different check list as its sixth month nears: health care, financial regulation, energy, a nuclear arms treaty and a Supreme Court vacancy, as well as investigations into a mine accident, a calamitous oil spill, a failed terrorist attack in Times Square and alleged Wall Street fraud,” the Times’ Jackie Calmes writes. “That crowded calendar of priorities largely explains why the employment bills have languished, Democrats say. They hope to change that starting this week.” On the Hill — hot lights, in a new direction: “Last week, it was oil executives who faced the wrath of lawmakers eager to find blame for the massive oil spill spreading in the Gulf of Mexico. On Tuesday, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar and other federal officials will come under questioning for what the government did — or did not do — to prevent the oil spill, and how they have responded since oil started streaming into the Gulf last month,” the AP’s Matthew Daly reports. Senate Homeland Security Chairman Joe Lieberman, I-Conn.: “Did our government, through MMS, require an oil spill response plan adequate to the widest range of possible dangers, including the failure of a blowout preventer? … It sure appears that they did not.” Getting in front: “President Obama will sign an executive order to establish a presidential commission to investigate the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico,” ABC’s Jake Tapper and Sunlen Miller report. “Few details were available about the commission, but its announcement comes as the Obama administration faces increased criticism for its handling of the BP oil spill in the Gulf — both for failures by the Department of the Interior's Minerals Management Service (MMS) in adequately regulating offshore drilling, and for questions about whether the administration relied too much on BP for information and response after the April 20 explosion.” “The move follows criticism of the government agency responsible for regulating offshore drilling safety, which Mr. Obama joined last Friday when he denounced the ‘cozy relationship’ between oil companies and federal regulators,” The Wall Street Journal’s Jared Favole and Stephen Power report. First casualty: “Chris Oynes, the Interior Department official in charge of overseeing offshore oil and gas drilling for the Minerals Management Service, will step down in the wake of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill,” ABC’s Sunlen Miller and Karen Travers report. Court-watching, for the big one to come: “The Supreme Court set a potential blueprint Monday for upholding the recently enacted healthcare law and its mandate that all Americans have insurance, saying Congress has a ‘broad authority’ to pass laws that are ‘rationally related’ to its constitutional aims,” David G. Savage reports in the Los Angeles Times. “The Constitution not only gives Congress the power to regulate interstate commerce, the justices said, but the authority to enact all laws that are ‘necessary and proper’ to carrying out this authority.” Checking in on a branch of the family tree: “President Obama’s aunt, Zeituni Polly Onyango, an enigmatic figure who exploded onto the national scene in 2008 while living illegally in Boston, has been granted permission to stay in the United States, the immigration court said yesterday,” The Boston Globe’s Maria Sacchetti reports. “Judge Leonard I. Shapiro granted her asylum Friday in Boston, three months after Onyango’s lawyers said she feared violence and health risks if she were forced to return to her native Kenya. The ruling clears the way for her to apply for legal permanent residency in a year, and US citizenship after five years.” On the circuit: “Bristol Palin is hitting the speakers' circuit and will command between $15,000 and $30,000 for each appearance, Palin family attorney Thomas Van Flein said Monday,” the AP’s Becky Bohrer reports.
The Kicker: “Calbuzz regrets the error.” — Calbuzz.com correction, after California Democratic Party Chairman John Burton complained that he had been misquoted as saying “f— you”; he actually said “go f— yourself.” “I'm not doing a press conference today, but we'll be seeing you guys during the course of this week.” — President Obama, declining to answer questions from the press after signing the Daniel Pearl Freedom of the Press Act into law.
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