New Poll: Frustration Index Forecasts GOP House Majority

By Kate McCarthy

Jul 13, 2010 4:54am

When Robert Gibbs said on Sunday that Democrats might lose the House, he must have been reading internal White House polls much like our new poll out this morning.

It shows our "Frustration Index" – the tool we came up with earlier this year to capture the country’s bitter, throw-the-bums-out mood – isn’t getting any better.

Still stuck at 67 (only the "change" elections of 2008 and 1992 took place when the number was higher), it forecasts a political tsunami right now.  Here are the four key factors beneath the top line:

  • 90% of Americans say the economy is in bad shape, and they don’t expect it to get better anytime soon.
  • 62% of registered voters want to replace their member of Congress – a record high – and the number’s been climbing all year.
  • 64% of Americans are dissatisfied with how the government’s working, a little better than earlier this year but still high.
  • 50% approve of President Obama’s job performance, equaling the low of his Presidency.

The silver lining for Democrats in these storm clouds? Lack of confidence in the GOP. Voters still trust President Obama and the Democrats to make the right decisions for the economy and the country’s future more than they trust the Republicans and their leaders.

Will that keep the GOP from taking control of Congress, or will they win anyway?  Is there anything the Democrats can do to reverse this tide?  Watch our dueling strategists – James Carville and Nicolle Wallace – debate it out this morning on “GMA.”

George Stephanopoulos   

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