This I Believe
EmailIt’s quickly mushroomed into the summer’s hottest data point: A boatload of Americans believe Barack Obama’s a Muslim.
Except that, maybe, they don’t. Consider this instead: They’re just willing to say it.
This not-so-subtle difference is useful in understanding public opinion and its measurement. Yet the punditry and pronouncements that have followed the Obama/Muslim numbers mainly have missed the point, falling instead into the trap of literalism. They say, so they believe.
Not necessarily so. People in fact may voice an attitude not as an affirmed belief – a statement of perceived factual reality – but rather as what my colleagues and I have taken to calling “expressed belief” – a statement intended to send a message, not claim a known fact.
It’s human nature. Some people who strongly oppose a person or proposition will take virtually any opportunity to express that antipathy. Offer a negative attribute, they’ll grab it – not to express their “belief,” in its conventional meaning, but rather to throw verbal stones at that which they so thoroughly dislike.
There are many celebrated examples. Saying the moon landing was staged is an easy way to express skepticism of the federal government. Opining that Iraq was behind 9/11 is a way to voice generalized views of Saddam Hussein’s villainy. Expressing doubt about global warming telegraphs opposition to the policy changes proposed to address it. And calling Barack Obama a Muslim is – for people who see this as a negative attribute – a handy way to say you don’t like the guy.
This concept not only explains the expressed “belief” that Obama’s a Muslim, but its recent rise. Disapproval of the president has grown, including strong disapproval. The growing roll of strong disapprovers provides a larger pool of individuals looking for opportunities to voice that sentiment. Socialist? Yep. Born in Kenya? Sure. Muslim? You betcha.
Along come the measurements. A Pew poll completed Aug. 5 found 18 percent of Americans saying Obama’s a Muslim, up from 11 percent in March 2009. It’s not much of a surprise, given the notion of expressed belief, that this view rose chiefly among Republicans and conservatives – groups most opposed to Obama, increasingly strongly so, and also most apt to express negative views of Islam.
Pew’s question offers a list of options for Obama’s religion – “is he Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, atheist, agnostic or something else?” It was followed by a Time magazine question that offered only “a Muslim or a Christian”; in that one even more, 24 percent, called Obama a Muslim. (In addition to the more limited set of options, Time's poll was conducted after Obama’s comment on the Cordoba House controversy.)
It’d have been interesting to see if as many people came up with “Muslim” as an answer to an open-ended question rather than a proffered list. And it’d be worthwhile to probe. Back in 2005, for instance, we found that 61 percent of Americans said they thought Iraq had directly backed al Qaeda; but, upon inspection, many fewer, 21 percent, thought there’d been solid evidence of it. The rest called it their “suspicion only,” something well short of the affirmed belief this view was broadly taken to represent.
There are other theories. Political scientist Brendan Nyhan, for one, suggests that people who think Obama’s a Muslim have been led to this view by insinuations in conservative media outlets that they trust. There’s plenty of evidence that people do use trusted sources to mediate their attitudes. But it remains true that an attitude is not necessarily a “belief” in the conventional sense.
For all this, surely there are some people who factually believe Obama is a Muslim. And it’s equally sure that it’s easier for expressed belief to rush in where a factual vacuum exists; had Obama chosen to make a more concrete display of his Christianity, the expressed belief that he’s Muslim would’ve been more difficult for some to enunciate. Indeed, as Pew notes, while few Democrats call him a Muslim, more say they don’t know what his religion is.
Pew’s analysis also makes a point that reflects what I’m proposing here: “Beliefs about Obama’s religion are closely linked to political judgments about him.”
Given that, much of the perturbed commentary that’s followed the Obama/Muslim result is misplaced. When we think of this not as an affirmed belief, but an expression of antipathy, the tortured explanations become unnecessary. The reality is that attitudes, including expressions of “belief,” are influenced by underlying sentiments. With political emotions running high, as they customarily do at times of severe economic stress, it’s a point worth keeping in mind – believe you me.
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For more on this, see a previous post called Understanding Answers, another called Polling on Presidential Pejoratives, and, in most detail, this paper on views on global warming co-written with Patrick J. Moynihan, assistant director of the Program on Survey Research at Harvard University.
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Not one mention of the main stream media’s complicity in educating the public? Not one mention of the media complicity in creating the 9/11-Saddam narrative?
Really?
Instead you dig up some lame excuse? That figures.
Connecting the dots should be simpler for people, but it is not. We can only make claims and opinions based on the information that is given to us or that we find ourselves.
With Aussie and Saudi Arabia owned News Corp having their Fox News and associated networks shouting with their huge amount of power the word liberal in disdain since the networks inception in the 90′s, what would you expect people to think about liberals?
Money does buy anything in the USA, including truth. Money even buys opinions in the WSJ and the NYT. Don’t ever forget it. Somebody with lots of money wants Americans to be ignorant so they make ignorant electoral choices. The media is a major culprit in the numbing of Americas intelligence.
With the truth comes the responsibility of trying to understand. Who wants a world of understanding?
We mustn’t burden ourselves with knowledge of our own complicity in the subverting of truth for profit. We take solace in our right to be ignorant and those that profit from deceit take solace in our desire to be so.
Posted by: ApostasyUSA | August 30, 2010, 10:10 am 10:10 am
What is an “opionion”? Aside from that spelling error in the bio, I agree with your analysis. Personalities in the media have exploited the “literal” interpretation of the data. As I see it, polls are nothing but a propaganda tool anymore.
Posted by: Richaroo | August 30, 2010, 10:24 am 10:24 am
This is speculation. Interesting and informed speculation, but speculation nonetheless. Wish someone would put this to a test. Someone who runs a major media poll, perhaps?
Posted by: Mike ONeil | August 30, 2010, 12:20 pm 12:20 pm
With the partition of Palestine and founding of Israel, many Americans called the President “a Jew” but he wasn’t.
Posted by: John Q Public | August 30, 2010, 1:01 pm 1:01 pm
“The rest called it their “suspicion only,” something well short of the affirmed belief this view was broadly taken to represent.”
…
“For all this, surely there are some people who factually believe Obama is a Muslim.”
How, when there are no facts to support that belief? Face it, every single one of the people who believe Obama is a Muslim do so on “suspicion only,” because that’s all there is. There is only one group of believers here, and none of them base their belief on facts. You’re making a distinction that doesn’t exist.
” When we think of this not as an affirmed belief, but an expression of antipathy, the tortured explanations become unnecessary.”
Wrong. Those seeking to explain should be asking why people are willing to believe assertions unsupported by facts about politicians and others they disagree with.
“Pew’s analysis also makes a point that reflects what I’m proposing here: “Beliefs about Obama’s religion are closely linked to political judgments about him.””
Obviously, but the fact remains that many or most of these people truly believe Obama is a Muslim. They create signs proclaiming it, spend hours online debating it, put up websites with all sorts of tortured theories about it. They believe it to be true. The question is not whether, as you assert, but why.
Posted by: mantis | August 30, 2010, 1:27 pm 1:27 pm
“Believe you me.”
Why should we? You simply pontificated. You provided no evidence of your claim.
Posted by: Nathan | August 30, 2010, 2:25 pm 2:25 pm
Mantis
No facts to support that belief?
Barack Hussein Obama has a Muslim name. A Muslim father. A Muslim stepfather (in Islam, paternity determines the religion of the child). He was brought up for four years in an Islamic country (Indonesia) and his school registration there listed his religion as “Islam” (before you assume this is some whacked-out “document”, it was found, and made available, by the Associated Press).
I have no reason to believe he is CURRENTLY a practicing Muslim. But there is plenty of reason to believe he was brought up in Islam.
Posted by: Ken Berwitz | August 30, 2010, 2:35 pm 2:35 pm
I have no reason to believe he is CURRENTLY a practicing Muslim.
Thank you for proving my point.
Posted by: mantis | August 30, 2010, 3:05 pm 3:05 pm
Here is a more apt poll question: How responsible is Fox News in misleading the American people about the President’s religion?
Posted by: Curt | August 30, 2010, 3:52 pm 3:52 pm
Secular humanists are quite willing to use Islam to damage those who hold the Judaeo-Christian ethic, and Muslims are quite willing to use secular humanism to damage those who hold the Judaeo-Christian ethic.
I do not think President Obama is Muslim, but I do think he is a secular humanist. His antipathy towards things Judaeo-Christian (e.g., neglecting the National Day of Prayer, the Prime Minister of Israel, etc.) and his soliticous actions towards Islam (e.g., iftar celebration, support of the controversial mosque) may well cause the number of people who think he is Muslim to increase, even if he is not.
Posted by: MKS | August 30, 2010, 3:59 pm 3:59 pm
Mantis
Er….no. I haven’t “proved” your point. I’ve made a point that you can’t seem to process.
People have different criteria for religious perceptions. One is current status (i.e. what religion, if any, do you practice right now) And another is ancestral (what religion were you born into and/or raised in).
A practicing Muslim believes that Barack Obama is also a Muslim, simply because that is the religion of his father. No need to worry about what his name is, what school he went to or what a school administrator wrote on his registration form.
There’s a billion or so believers right there, who basis for calling him a Muslim is the religion itself.
That’s a tad more than “suspicion only”.
Posted by: Ken Berwitz | August 30, 2010, 4:10 pm 4:10 pm
“Er….no. I haven’t “proved” your point”
Actually, you have. You listed a bunch of half-truths and distortions, displayed a misunderstanding of Islam, and then admitted there is no reason to believe Obama is a Muslim. You couldn’t have reflected my argument better.
“People have different criteria for religious perceptions.”
Correction: people have different criteria for what they believe. Some people base their beliefs on facts and reality, and some are interested in imaginary scenarios in which they are a besieged and righteous few fighting against evil which is threatening their existence, and any and all ideas which support this fantasyland are believed.
“One is current status (i.e. what religion, if any, do you practice right now) And another is ancestral (what religion were you born into and/or raised in).”
Somehow I doubt those who doubt Obama’s Christianity would also doubt someone who converted as an adult from say, Baptist to Episcopalian. Why not? It’s ancestral vs. current status, using your criteria. Hmm, there must be something more to this…
“A practicing Muslim believes that Barack Obama is also a Muslim, simply because that is the religion of his father. ”
It’s cute that you take it upon yourself to speak for Muslims, especially considering how little you seem to know about Islam, but alas, you are wrong.
“No need to worry about what his name is, what school he went to or what a school administrator wrote on his registration form.”
Ah, but what that school administrator wrote on a form is ABSOLUTE PROOF BEYOND A DOUBT that the Kenyan usurper is actually Satan!
“There’s a billion or so believers right there, who basis for calling him a Muslim is the religion itself.”
Wrong. Next time learn something about a religion if you plan to speak for its followers. You’re an ignorant buffoon.
Posted by: mantis | August 30, 2010, 4:45 pm 4:45 pm
“the summer’s hottest data point” I guess that is the criterion for YELLOW RAG JOURNALISM that passes for News today. It is a pity that Journalism is a Lost Art and instead we are re-fed what has been thrown-up before because it is so much easier and cheaper to produce than the kind of real news that was of such great value to our society – a long Time ago in a Galaxy far..far away.
Posted by: oneStarman - Walla Walla, WA | August 30, 2010, 9:30 pm 9:30 pm
Posted by: Ken Berwitz I have no reason to believe he is CURRENTLY a practicing Muslim. But there is plenty of reason to believe he was brought up in Islam.
I was raised a Baptist, does that make me a Baptist now? I haven’t considered myself a Baptist for a long time. If the President says he’s a Christian and attends Christian services, I do believe any “reasonable” person would say he’s a Christian.
I think the people who think he’s a Muslim are what you would call “unreasonable” people. “Unreasonable” people are the ones you could show all the evidence in the world to, proving your point, and they still would not believe what you say.
The “unreasonable” people are the ones who don’t believe that Republicans had anything to do with the recession, that bail out money should be accounted for after their constituents got what they needed, and that even though economic models say otherwise healthcare reform will be totally disastrous.
Another thing to consider is that “statistically” 18 percent of people most likely have under an 80 IQ.
Posted by: Brian P. | September 1, 2010, 3:41 pm 3:41 pm
Brian -
If your point is that you don’t believe Barack Obama is currently a practicing Muslim we are in agreement.
My point remains (and you haven’t challenged it) that when someone is asked “is Barack Obama a Muslim” without any specific definition of the term, they may answer from an ancestral rather than current perspective.
Let me remind you that – regardless of what a very unpleasant, offensive other poster intends not to understand – in the Muslim religion, paternity is the defining element. If your father is a Muslim so are you. Given that Barack Obama’s father, and stepfather, were both Muslim, that makes him Muslim too in the eyes of the Islamic world.
I take issue with several of your politically partisan comments, but will decline to debate them since they are not on topic here.
However, your tacit connection of people who believe Barack Obama is a Muslim with mental disability is disgusting.
Posted by: Ken Berwitz | September 2, 2010, 10:31 am 10:31 am
Dealing in fear and innuendo is a sad commentary.
Posted by: Patrick McCormick | September 3, 2010, 2:18 pm 2:18 pm
The Muslim people are a HIGHLY religious group of people. To be one does NOT make them bad unless they belong to the ones who are in a terrorist group. Most Muslims,however are very religious people who do not believe in war.To call Obama a Muslim is not calling him wrong since HE is NOT a terrorist except in the eyes of the troublemakers !
Posted by: Anne | September 11, 2010, 1:26 am 1:26 am
If the Repubs win the mid term election I can’t imagine WHY,since all they have been doing is whining and saying NO to everything, but not doing anything else themselves to make anything better in the country!
Posted by: Anne | September 11, 2010, 1:31 am 1:31 am