Ratings Changes: Split Decision

By Devin Dwyer
@devindwyer
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ABC News' Amy Walter reports: Democrats’ chances to hold the Senate look stronger, but even more Democratic-held seats look vulnerable in the House. Bottom line: Two Democratic-held seats – CA and WV – move from Toss Up to Lean Dem. One GOP-held seat, KY, moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican. 2010 Election Maps: Follow the House, Senate and Governors’ Races Republicans need to pick up 10 Democratic-held seats to capture the majority. Right now, we list 4 Dem-held seats that Lean or are Solid Republican (AR, IN, ND, and WI). There are now five Democratic-held seats that are toss-ups (CO, IL, NV, PA and WA). Republicans have to win all of those seats and then pick-off one more from the lean Democratic column (CA, CT, DE, and WV) in order to take control of the Senate. Republicans have none of their own seats in Toss-Up or Lean Democrat. In the House, we list 108 Democratic seats in some level of vulnerability, including a whopping 68 seats that either lean Republican or are Toss-Ups.  Republicans have just 18 seats that we list as vulnerable, including 3 that lean Republican. To win control of Congress, Republicans need to pick up 39 Democratic-held seats. If Republicans do lose three of their own seats, it means that they’d ultimately need to net 42 seats in order to gain control of the House.  However, given the huge number of Democratic seats in danger, another three seats is not going to be a huge lift for the GOP.