Great Expectations: Who Will Be 2nd Quarter Fundraising Winners And Losers? (The Note)

Jul 1, 2011 8:53am

By MICHAEL FALCONE (@michaelpfalcone) and AMY WALTER (@amyewalter)

The deadline for the 2nd quarter fundraising officially closed at midnight. But while the results won’t be public until July 15, the leaking, spinning and pontificating is well underway.

Here’s what we know (or think we know):

  • The Romney campaign is expected to have raised somewhere around $20M for the quarter, not the $30-$40M that some had predicted. If so, that would put Romney at his 2007 pace. Even so, he will significantly outpace every other candidate GOP field, and will most likely be the only GOPer to hit double digits.
  • The Obama camp has set a $60M goal. Given the furious pace of fundraising that the president is setting, it’s hard to believe that the Obama campaign doesn’t hit – and probably even surpass – that goal.
  • The first to leak his numbers was the last to get in. Jon Huntsman, who’s been an officially-announced candidate for just nine days, has reportedly raised $4.1M. ABC’s Sarah Kunin reports, however, that “less than half” came from Huntsman’s own pocket. Translation: Huntsman raised about $2M. A good sum, but not a game-changing amount. http://abcn.ws/mwh3vp
  • Ron Paul once again proves he’s got that “money bomb” thing down. ABC’s Jason Volack reports that Paul announced on his Facebook page that he’s raised $4.5M – double what he raised at this point in 2007.
  • The Pawlenty camp, meanwhile, has been setting the expectations bar low. Very low. It’s not a question of whether he’ll be outraised by Romney, it’s a question of whether he’ll be outraised by folks like Paul or Bachmann.
  • Given her success in wrangling the spotlight over the last two weeks, Michele Bachmann should have a very good quarter. If she doesn’t, that will be a big story. And, how much will she have spent to raise that money?

Bottom Line:  Context is very important at this stage of the game. It’s not just what these folks raised, it’s also how much they’ve spent, and what they’ve spent it on.  And, while money is an important piece of the electoral puzzle, it’s not the only thing that matters. At this point in 2007, for example, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Guiliani were top fundraisers. But, money begets money. It’s hard to raise money if you can’t prove you can raise it.

ON TODAY’S “TOP LINE”: ABC’s Rick Klein and Amy Walter sit down with Senator Ben Cardin, D-Md. Cardin has called for an investigation into how natural gas drilling operations affect nearby groundwater, while other lawmakers push President Obama to promote natural gas as an alternative fuel resource. Next we hear from Susan B. Anthony President Marjorie Dannenfelser, who has criticized Republican presidential candidates for refusing to sign an anti-abortion pledge.  Watch “Top Line” LIVE at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. http://abcn.ws/toplineliveabc 

REPLAY: YESTERDAY ON “TOPLINE” Senator Rand Paul, R-Ky., “called on President Obama to lead a ‘public debate’ that takes the discussion over taxes and budget-cutting out of secret negotiations,” ABC’s Rick Klein reports. He said he and his fellow conservatives are willing to approve a higher debt limit if Congress votes to enact a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget, something he said could happen in a matter of weeks. Watch the full interview here.

While some – like Jack Schafer at Slate – have claimed that hyperlocal journalism is a “waste of time and resources,” award-winning journalist Judy Muller argued that the field is alive and kicking. “The death of local journalism is false.” Muller said that bigger outlets are bleeding while small media organizations thrive. Watch the full interview with Muller here. 

 

THE BUZZ

REP MCCOTTER RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT Politico reports that five-term Michigan Rep. Thaddeus McCotter “will file paperwork on Friday to become the eighth Republican candidate for president.” McCotter spent four days in Iowa this week and came away “feeling positive” about his reception, the adviser said. His presidential campaign website will go live around noon tomorrow, allowing the four-term Michigan congressman to kick off his long-shot bid on the first day of the new fundraising quarter. http://politi.co/jDYjTV

MINNESOTA GOV’T SHUTS DOWN The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that “talks imploded Thursday between DFL Gov. Mark Dayton and Republican legislative leaders in the final hours before a midnight deadline, and Minnesota began a historic government shutdown.” The debate in Minnesota, much like the debate in Washington, centers on disagreement over taxes. http://bit.ly/lOaU4v

Meanwhile, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who also presided over a government shutdown in 2005, told reporters that the one thing both shutdowns have in common was that, “they were the fault of Democrats.” Here’s the Minneapolis Star Tribune: “In 2005, the shutdown ended with Pawlenty inking a budget deal that included what he called a "health impact fee," but most called a cigarette tax. He said he bore no responsibility for the $5 billion deficit economists projected he left behind and the current lawmakers and governor are working to close.” http://bit.ly/l1hDX

PERRY HEADED TO KEY MI GOP CONFAB THIS FALL The Detroit Free Press Reports: “Texas Gov. Rick Perry – still flirting with the possibility of running for president next year – will address the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference meeting in September, state Party Chairman Bobby Schostak said Thursday.” In 2007, every major GOP candidate came to the event. http://bit.ly/ix7ciG

Meanwhile, in Iowa “an advocacy group that wants Republican Gov. Rick Perry of Texas to run for president is seeking a presence at the Iowa straw poll in August,” reports the Des Moines Register. http://bit.ly/mmPsO2

 

WHO’S TWEETING?

 

@HotlineReid: Once wrote a profile on Thad McCotter. He smoked 4 cigarettes in the course of a 20-minute interview in his Longworth office.

@jaketapper: Beyonce will be on @GMA today. I'm not entirely certain @GStephanopoulos is ready for this jelly. #Bootylicious

@bethreinhard:  Funny how Congress returning to work on Tuesday like the rest of us is such a big deal

@PhilipRucker:  Herman Cain goes there: new video attacks Obama with Michelle's "proud" quote, Van Jones, references to Marxism. http://bit.ly/iIYHqY

 

A “NOTE” NOTE: We will be off Monday and Tuesday for the Holiday Weekend. Enjoy yours!

 

POLITICAL RADAR: INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND

 (NOTE: ALL TIMES ARE LOCAL)

FRIDAY, JULY 1:

* Texas Gov. Rick Perry will undergo minor back surgery.

* Herman Cain dines with business leaders for a lunch at the Union Club in Cleveland, Ohio at 11:30 a.m.

* Ron Paul has a busy day planned in New Hampshire. He visits the Conway Cafe and Majestic Theater in Conway from 8-9 a.m. Paul moves on to the Eaton Village Store at 10:35 a.m. At 11:10 a.m., Paul goes to Freedom to visit the Freedom Village Store. At 2:15, Paul will appear at Evergrain in Wolfboro. Paul will make a stop at 3 p.m. at the Mobil Station in Gilford. From 3:35-4:00 p.m., Five Star Golf Cars in Laconia. Paul caps off the day with a house party in the Lakes Region from 5:30-7 p.m.

SATURDAY, JULY 2:

* Herman Cain speaks at the We the People Convention in Brimfield, Ohio, at 6:30 p.m.

* On the first day of her Iowa Campaign Bus Tour, Michele Bachmann holds a breakfast chat at the Bluebird Diner in Iowa City, Iowa at 8 a.m. At 1 p.m., she speaks at Taylor's Maid Rite in Marshalltown. Then she joins up with the Iowa Tea Party Bus Tour in Des Moines at the Capitol Building at 5 p.m.

SUNDAY, JULY 3:

* Jon Huntsman speaks at a house party in Manchester, N.H. at noon before heading to Creamland Ice Cream shop for another speech at 1:45 p.m. At 7:30 p.m., he catches a glimpse of some fireworks at the Independence Day Celebration at Arms Park in Manchester.

* Michele Bachmann hosts a lunch chat at Pizza Ranch in Carroll, Iowa at 12:30 p.m. At 4 p.m., she attends a meet-and-greet at Wells Blue Bunny Ice Cream Parlor & Museum in Le Mars.

MONDAY, JULY 4:

* Herman Cain returns to the granite state. Cain will throw out the first pitch at a Fisher Cats game in Manchester, N.H. at 7 p.m.

* Michele Bachmann attends the Fourth of July Parade in Clear Lake, Iowa at 10 a.m.

* Newt Gingrich marches in that very same Fourth of July Parade and attends evening festivities in Clear Lake, Iowa.

* Mitt Romney heads to New Hampshire where he will march in the Amherst July Fourth Parade in the morning, stop at Andover Village Green, and then march in the Laconia Parade in the late afternoon.

* In yet another case of candidate overlap, Jon Huntsman, too, marches in the Fourth of July Parade in Amherst, N.H. in the morning. But he and Mitt won’t be together for long; at 1:30 p.m., Huntsman speaks at the Fourth of July Barbecue in Belmont. He will speak at a house party in Moultonborough at 3:45 p.m., and at 5:30 p.m., he will deliver remarks at the Pemi/Baker Valley Republican's Fourth of July Barbecue in Plymouth.

 The Note Futures Calendar: http://abcn.ws/ZI9gV

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* For breaking political news and analysis check out The Note blog: http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/and ABCNews.com/Politics: http://abcnews.com/politics

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