Obama Campaign Snapshot — 70 Weeks to Election

Jul 1, 2011 2:40pm

ABC News' Devin Dwyer (@devindwyer) reports: 

COUNTING THE CASH:  After a month of 11 fundraisers – from Miami to Puerto Rico, DC, New York and Philly – the Obama campaign seems poised to hit or exceed their Q2 goal of $60 M raised jointly with DNC. At this point in 2007, Obama alone raised $33.1 million from 180,000 contributors.

While spokesmen are mum on when they’ll drop the top line number, the campaign website says they closed out the quarter with more than 490,000 individual contributors who made 660,000 contributions. (During the entire 2007-2008 campaign, OFA received contributions from 3 million supporters.) 

— TOWARDS $1 BILLION:   If Obama banked $60 M this quarter, he’ll be on track with what Bush/RNC raised in Q2 of 2003. But to reach a symbolic $1 B figure by election day, he’d have to start raising nearly as much PER MONTH on average (about $50 million) over the next year and a half.

— BROTHERLY LOVE:  Potus capped the quarter with two fundraisers in Philly yesterday – numbers 34 and 35 for the year.  At an intimate gathering of 120 deep-pocket donors at the home of Comcast exec David L. Cohen, Obama was subdued and reflective in his pitch, stirring no applause or emotion from the crowd.  “I hope all of you understand that when we started out on this project in 2007 it wasn’t going to be done in 2011,” he said. “We have a lot of work to do, and I’m going to need you as bad as I needed you back then.” 

SWING STATE SPOTLIGHT:  NH – A top state Democrat says to expect Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick to assume a high-profile surrogate role for Obama in 2012, particularly if former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney becomes the nominee.  They say Patrick has a “compelling case” against Romney, refuting his economic record on job creation and defending the state’s health care law, and strong appeal in battleground New Hampshire.  Patrick will be back in the Granite State on July 19 for a fundraiser for state Dems.

TALKING TECH TOOLS:  The 2012 campaign will be defined by “mobile social, hyper-local, grassroots community organizing,” says Jonathan Askin, who was a member of Obama’s technology task force in 2008.

 “It’s harnessing tools like 4-Square and Places, or tied into Google maps, so people know and can conveniently access real moments of campaign activity – events, calls, phone banks – in real time and real places,” he said.  The campaign’s website has already begun to integrate many of these features.  “If 2008 was geometry, we’re now in calculus mode. … If geometry is imperfect and edgy, calculus smoothes out the curves so every void is filled.  They are going to figure out how to use analytics, time and place identifying information to maximize the value of every person related to the campaign,” he said.

One cautionary note on micro-targeting from Askin:  “The campaign is going to have to be very careful to make it seem like people aren’t being used and oppressed by constant communications. How will they use our personally identifiable information? Will it seem like Big Brother is following us for the benefit of Barack Obama?”

TWEETER IN CHIEF: Potus will hold his first Twitter townhall next week, the White House announced Thursday with much fanfare. The discussion will be moderated, with handpicked questions from Twitter users limited to those on jobs and economy.  The president will respond in 140-character replies. 

 — POLITICAL IMPACT?  “Yes, Twitter matters,” said University of Minnesota political communications professor and social media expert Heather LaMarre. “But it’s not how much you tweet, it’s how much you can get those followers to re-tweet and push out your message for you.”  LaMarre’s research from the 2010 cycle also found a small but statistically significant relationship between the number of a political figure’s followers and winning an election.

THE FACE-TWEET SCORECARD:  The social media trend lines over the week for 2012 political candidates reflect big exposure for Rep. Michele Bachmann, and sagging support for Tim Pawlenty.

Bachmann’s Twitter following surged 6 percent this week to 58,400 followers – more than Romney, Pawlenty and Huntsman. She was also the only candidate to post a significant gain in Facebook fans, adding 4 percent over the week to 230,000.  Everyone else gained only a fraction of one percent.

While nearly every candidate has shown steady gains on Twitter over the past month, Pawlenty’s growth rate has slowed notably.  He began June at 5 percent growth rate per week, steadily declined to around 1 percent.  He has 42,000 Twitter followers — only besting Huntsman, who has just 5,000.

Obama added 102,000 Twitter followers this week (8.9 million total) and 78,000 Facebook fans (21.8 million total).

ICYMI THIS WEEK:

DEM SUPER PAC HAS OBAMA’S BACK –  http://abcn.ws/meoBum

OBAMA GAY MARRIAGE STANCE NOD TO 2012 BATTLEGROUNDS –  http://abcn.ws/igB5iA

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