Common Sense: Get Ready for a GOP Roller Coaster Ride

By Eliza

Aug 12, 2011 3:57pm

From Political Analyst, Matthew Dowd:

DES MOINES — Walking amid the good folk and food booths and rides at the Iowa State Fair, it's hard to get a sense people are fixated on politics in the aftermath of the Republican debate and before the important straw vote in Ames.

Iowans seem more intent on viewing the giant carved butter cow in the Ag building or sampling the newest featured food at this fair – deep fried butter on a stick. This interesting new delicacy (?) seems to draw the eyes and mouths of the folks who wander past all the other fried foods and foods on a stick. I thought to myself the only thing that would make this all complete would for a cardiologist convention to be held next door. Ironically, there is a booth here at the fair offering free blood-pressure tests.

Turning back to the mundane world of politics, many of the candidates have shown up at the fair to speak at something they call "the soapbox" where there is no box and no soap. It's a stage with hay bales where candidates address voters and fair goers with all the fervor of their stump speeches. Five of the candidates will show up in the aftermath of the debate to try to get a jump on the straw vote.

So where do we stand in this in-between time in Iowa? In the debate, some candidates reappeared, some candidates disappeared and one new big player is about to appear. For the last few weeks, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty have basically gone off most folks' radar screen – but that changed.  Each showed up in a much more forceful way. Pawlenty had a number of skirmishes and exchanges with the other candidates, especially Michelle Bachmann. And she definitely held her own. Gingrich seemed to want to get in an argument more with the moderator than the other candidates, and showed some passion which we haven't seen in a while. Jon Huntsman, who has had a hard time getting traction since his announcement, basically disappeared over the two hours. He didn't get much time and what he said was not very memorable.

And finally, the candidate who is about to appear, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, was part of the conversation at the debate and much of the discussion amongst the media as well as voters outside the hall. If you had to pick a winner last night, it was probably Perry. You got a palpable sense that everybody is waiting for him to get into the race and all know they are going to have to react to this Texan who will walk in with boots on and bravado in hand.

The debate highlighted that in the back-and-forth between Bachmann and Pawlenty, they see the results of the straw vote as key to their future prospects. Each needs to do well to be able to continue to build credibility and cash, and if they don't meet expectations, their prospects are greatly diminished and may not make it to the Iowa caucuses in January.

The campaign is about to take a whole new turn in the aftermath of the Ames straw vote, and the intensity will only increase.  Ames won't pick the presidential winner, but it certainly will help pick the losers. Many candidates will either drop out not longer after the straw vote or be left floundering.  While Perry will initially increase the field of candidates when he gets in, the field will be quickly shortened after the straw vote.

So enjoy the last days of summer, eat something fried and on a stick, take your kids or your friends to a fair in your area and get ready for a roller coaster ride in the up-and-down of politics starting next week.

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