Risk, Reward in Obama Health Care Law Appeal to Supreme Court
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The Obama administration’s pursuit of an expedited U.S. Supreme Court review of its health care law is a roll of the political dice with enormous implications for the president and the 2012 campaign.
While the signature issue of Obama’s presidency has already figured prominently in rhetoric on both sides, an expected ruling on its constitutionality by June guarantees a dramatic pre-election debate in which Obama may have the most to gain.
A victory for the Affordable Care Act in a high court dominated by conservatives could tame the most fiery criticism from the right, undermining charges popularized by the Tea Party that the administration usurped its constitutional authority.
A ruling against it, while a setback to the law itself, could serve to embolden the argument Obama has already been making that Republicans across all branches of government have become obstructionists without solutions.
“The administration would be able to talk about the conservative grip on government preventing us from solving any problems,” said Thomas Mann, a political scholar at the Brookings Institution. “They can campaign against the Republicans in congress, and the Republicans in charge of the Supreme Court, and then tie it into the Citizens United decision and other matters.”
Regardless of the outcome, a review of the law by the Supreme Court gives Obama added reason to talk passionately about health care on the campaign trail, and tout popular benefits of the law that have already taken effect.
“The uncertainty about whether the law is going to take effect has made it more difficult for the president to defend it,” said Simon Rosenberg, president and founder of the New Democrat Network. “Having it clearly decided one way or the other is better for his reelection and better for the health care bill.”
Democratic strategist John Lapp, a veteran of political campaigns, said even if the administration loses the case, Obama will likely be able to resurrect the narrative of “Republicans undermining critical healthcare for the middle class.”
The messaging on health care could only serve to energize Obama’s liberal supporters, experts say.
“If this is in the news, if the Supreme Court is considering it, and all sorts of deliberations ‘will health care survive?’ are taking place, that could excite Obama’s base,” said Princeton University political historian Julian Zelizer.
“It will remind people what it did. It will remind supporters that he’s not an ineffective president, that he has a major accomplishment, and that things are at stake if he’s not reelected,” Zelizer said.
Still, the potential for a blow to Obama’s top domestic policy achievement on the eve of the nominating conventions isn’t without a risk.
“This was the pillar of his presidency,” said Republican strategist and ABC News political consultant Matthew Dowd. ”If that falters going into an election, it’s very difficult for them to say what [they] are going to run on.
“You can’t run on the economy, you can’t run on other issues. You’re stuck with a health care issue that may or may not be declared unconstitutional,” Dowd said. “It’s a big risk.”
It may be a risk, but the administration is unphased.
“We’re not worried about what we believe the ultimate decision will be here, which is that the individual mandate provision is absolutely constitutional, as a number of courts have already decided,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said Wednesday. “Obviously some have decided otherwise, but we believe ultimately that this will be resolved in the favor of the constitutionality of the act.”
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Whether the Supreme Court decides to rewrite the Constitution and side with Obama, or find his legislation the unconstitutional mandate that it is won’t matter in November 2012. Hopefully, the electorate will be smart enough, patriotic enough to evaluate this president on his performance. The economy will NOT miraculously turn around in 13 months. Obama’s Chicago campaign machine will seek to divide Americans even further. Race baiting and class warfare rhetoric will be a campaign speech staple. It will be interesting to see how much ankle-grabbing the liberal media will be doing this time around. Americans are losing faith in what used to be a respected institution. I guess it would explain the numbers at ABC, CBS, NBC, Newsweek and the New York Times. People are considerably smarter than these sorry institutions realize.
Posted by: s | September 29, 2011, 4:57 pm 4:57 pm
S: Just shut up! I am sooooo sick of your right wing philosophy. Where were you when GWB was screwing up the country? A lot of people don’t agree with you, including me! Obama will win in a landslide and you and other right wing nuts like you will still be on this blog complaining about Obama. LOL! LOL! You are pathetic!
Posted by: Justuspofolks | September 29, 2011, 5:22 pm 5:22 pm
Looks like Obama is desperate to play any risky game to win the election. He has almost failed miserably to please Arabs, Muslims and even Jews too. He angered his own black, liberals and life long Democrats by bowing down to the Republican dictates. And, he become a kicking ball for the Tea-Party and right wing Republicans. He and his associates might have taken a serious look of his sinking ship and advised him to be a real Chicago politician and let play the last card of the health care mandate and change the pool picture and bring back poor, middle class and centrist independent. Hope, he will succeed, if not no one will cry for his demise.
Posted by: john dahodi | September 29, 2011, 5:27 pm 5:27 pm
What Death Panels? Republicans don’t want to have to decide which ones get to live, they want all of those disgusting sick people to die. They must be sick because they are gay or illegal or poor or lazy or they must not be Christians.
Posted by: GOP666 | September 29, 2011, 5:31 pm 5:31 pm
Right wing nuts: The rumors of the President’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. When Americans step in that voting booth, they are going to be confronted with a stark contrast, the right wing GOP party with all of its hatefulness and hypocrisy, or the President, who has fought for the middle class since day one. I think most Americans will vote for Obama. As a matter of fact, I think it will be a landslide. LOL!
Posted by: Justuspofolks | September 29, 2011, 5:39 pm 5:39 pm
Obama …one and done……along with the unaffordable healthcare act.
Posted by: Allen | September 29, 2011, 6:38 pm 6:38 pm
Hey S, I agree….hopefully the electorate WILL be smart enough to evaluate President Obama on his performance…..hopefully they will also be smart enough to evaluate the Republicans for their obstructionist behavior. I wonder why they obstructed everything he tried to accomplish….maybe because they knew it would work and they would have to wait a looooong time to regain power????? No that couldn’t be it ’cause we all know they are such true blue Americans that they wouldn’t want the country to suffer just to regain power, would they?
Posted by: 40acres | September 29, 2011, 6:57 pm 6:57 pm
The majority of Americans (in some cases overwhelming numbers) don’t think Obama has a clue with how to deal with the economy and don’t support the unaffordable healthcare act. His approval ratings are more often than not in the upper 30′s and have been trending down for quite awhile. I think the American public has judged his performance and is now passing judgement. You guys blew off the 2010 elections, losing a seat held by a democrat for more than 97 years and independents ( who put Obama in office) are leaving him in droves. If any of you thinks he has a chance in hell of winning the next election, much less by a landslide…….LOL.
Posted by: Allen | September 29, 2011, 7:17 pm 7:17 pm
Justasfolks, please spew your rhetoric somewhere else, he has been playing the race card from day one, now it’s class warfare and the only time he is for the middle class is when he needs their vote.
Posted by: Lizzie | September 29, 2011, 7:55 pm 7:55 pm
The Affordable Care Act is far from perfect, but it is a step in the right direction. Republicans need to keep in mind the act was based on Romney’s health care plan, which I understand was reasonably successful. This country has more about 50 million citizens who are uninsured. This country’s insurance companies do not care to insure assigned risks or people with pre-existing, non-life threatening diseases. They only want paying customers who make no claims and large corporate policies that keep them rolling in money. There are many countries in this world that have made public health care work. The main opponents seem to be the Republicans who like the status quo and insurance companies who do not want any competition.
Posted by: RohnertPark1 | September 29, 2011, 7:59 pm 7:59 pm
The main opponents seem to be the Republicans who like the status quo and insurance companies who do not want any competition.
POSTED BY: ROHNERTPARK1 | SEPTEMBER 29, 2011, 7:59 PM+++Fact: Insurance rates continue to climb unchecked. Speculation: In seven years this piece of crap might start to help if we are extremely lucky and pass golden eggs through an orifice.
Posted by: Allen | September 29, 2011, 8:09 pm 8:09 pm
Hey S, I agree….hopefully the electorate WILL be smart enough to evaluate President Obama on his performance…..
Posted by: 40acres | September 29, 2011, 6:57 pm 6:57 pm
The electorate will judge Obama against his Republican opposition – good news for the Democrats. Obama blows Bush and the Republican on the economy right out of the water.
Everybody watched America fall apart under 8 long years of Bush, we haven’t forgotten.
Posted by: Bill | September 29, 2011, 11:40 pm 11:40 pm
If obamacare is found constitutional ? what’s next the government going to force us into buying life insurance or perhaps an electric car or may be bonds from china or Russia. Only a person with an agenda to destroy us would want to force something down our throats. Look at hitler & what he did to the jews. This is the U.S. & we have rights given to us by our for fathers, rights under the construction. Witch our fathers gave there lives for. We are not communists where the government owns its people, we are not slaves. We have rights!! & When you start giving up your rights then you have nothing.
Posted by: todd | September 30, 2011, 1:50 am 1:50 am
Posted by: todd | September 30, 2011, 1:50 am 1:50 am
Sorry Todd, you have to wear pants in public, you can’t fornicate in public, etc.
Posted by: Jenna | September 30, 2011, 2:03 am 2:03 am
Rights are rights.
Posted by: todd | September 30, 2011, 2:10 am 2:10 am
Sorry Todd, we will put you in jail if you start walking around without pants on, or if you start fornicating in public.
Posted by: Jenna | September 30, 2011, 2:15 am 2:15 am
San francisco look it up they allowed nudist. Fornication good 1 but very childish.
Posted by: todd | September 30, 2011, 2:21 am 2:21 am
The chances are excellent that the individual mandate will pass. Otherwise, buying car insurance could be declared unconstitutional since it’s mandatory. That’s probably part of the logic that has kept it upheld in the lower courts.
Of course, it’ll be highly publicized issue which would serve the Democrats far better than Republicans IMO. It would help to highlight their more fundamental differences . . .well, at least in ideology. Needless to say, Americans want to feel that an administration has their backs in respect to their health and that of their families. Especially after how health insurance has performed in the last 20 years.
Posted by: jane r. | September 30, 2011, 8:28 am 8:28 am
Kagan should step down from voting, one of her jobs in the Obama administration was how to argue for it.
Posted by: Freedom | September 30, 2011, 9:24 am 9:24 am
“S” wrote, “Whether the Supreme Court decides to rewrite the Constitution and side with Obama blah blah blah…”
“S”, are you a constitutional lawyer? No? Didn’t think so. Your incessantly hyper-partisan anti-Obama rants are as irritating as an infant with a full diaper. And frankly, less appealing. Next year, when Obama defeats whatever moron the Right selects to run against him, I hope you are still around here. So people can tell you to stick it where the sun don’t shine……………..
Posted by: Searambler | September 30, 2011, 3:25 pm 3:25 pm
Clarence Thomas should recuse himself from hearing the case, since his wife was a paid lobbyist, lobbying against the health care bill………..
Posted by: Searambler | September 30, 2011, 3:28 pm 3:28 pm