Majority Expects Obama to Lose Re-Election
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A majority of Americans expect Barack Obama to be a one-term president, an assessment on which, in past elections, the public more often has been right than wrong.
Just 37 percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say they expect Obama to win re-election in November 2012; 55 percent instead expect the eventual Republican nominee to win. ABC’s George Stephanopoulos is asking the president about that result in an interview today.
It’s a challenging finding for the president because expectations can fuel voter enthusiasm – precisely the ingredient that led the GOP to its broad success in the 2010 midterms, when charged-up conservatives turned out while dispirited Democrats stayed home.
Democrats do expect Obama to win, but they say so only by 58-33 percent – a comparatively tepid vote of confidence within his own party. Republicans, by contrast, smell victory by a vast 83-13 percent. And independents – the linchpin of national politics – by 54-36 percent expect the Republican candidate to beat Obama.
This poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, finds that the divisions among ideological groups tell a similar story. Conservatives are far more confident about the Republican nominee than are liberals about Obama, and moderates, albeit narrowly, are more likely to expect the challenger to win.
There is, though, a difference by education groups – a less-bad outlook for Obama on the off-chance that schooling leads to more precise punditry. Americans who lack a college degree think, by 57-35 points, that the Republican nominee will beat Obama. Those with a college degree think so too, but by a narrower 49-41 percent.
The public does not always nail such prognostications, and with the election more than a year away – and the Republican contest still highly unsettled – much can change. In a New York Times/CBS News poll in March 1992, 76 percent expected the first President Bush to beat Bill Clinton. But Bush quickly lost support as the flush of success in the first Gulf War faded and economic discontent took hold, and Clinton unseated him.
Nonetheless, in November 1999, also in a Times/CBS poll, the public by 52-32 percent expected the eventual Republican nominee to beat the Democrat, as he did; in September 2003, the public by 50-35 percent expected Bush 43 to be re-elected, as he was; and in March 2007, 61 percent correctly expected the eventual Democratic nominee to beat the eventual GOP nominee.
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To which Bozo is he to lose to? The Religious Right Nutcases, Perry and Bachmann; the Tea Party nutcases, Herman Cain and Paul; or the Flip-Flopping nutcase, Romney who believes it was fine when he did mandatory Healthcare for Mass, but not the US. The Election is far from over.
Posted by: USian | October 3, 2011, 2:44 pm 2:44 pm
I expect it to be a hard won victory!
Posted by: fittinguy | October 3, 2011, 2:51 pm 2:51 pm
Usian: You took the words right out of my mouth! Might I add Chris Christie, the Bully from NJ where we lost so many teacher, police and firefighter jobs, where our property taxes are sky high not lowered like he promised? Perhaps he might get in! God help us all!
and you know many people I talk to say they are angry at Congress for not working with this president…they didn’t give him a chance from day one! And I would love to know who they poll! I was never consulted on a poll in my life and I asked my co-workers and friends and none of them were…wonder where they get these polls from?
Posted by: Barb | October 3, 2011, 2:54 pm 2:54 pm
That’s what happens whey you promise the world and deliver very little if anything. Obama made powerful speeches but he forgot that he had to do at least some of the things he promised. Some of it he tried and failed, some he got done but it turned out horribly, some he never tried. If Obama didn’t know he would be a single term president, he’s not as smart as I think he is.
Perry, Bachmann and Gingrich are all evangelicals. They think the First Amendment only applies to them.
Romney and Christie would only be considered conservative in the northeast. They want to give amnesty and citizenship to illegal aliens and to circumvent the Second Amemdment.
God help us all if Palin jumps in.
Cain has some good ideas on the economy but he doesn’t understand other issues.
Paul is the only candidate who knows what is going on and will defend the Constitution.
Any of them would be better than Obama.
Posted by: oonogil7 | October 3, 2011, 3:09 pm 3:09 pm
i guess that means 55% of americans are virulent racists, right?
Posted by: grumpopolis | October 3, 2011, 3:35 pm 3:35 pm
In today’s climate against a generic nameless opponent, this doesn’t surprise me. Let’s revisit this question when the GOP finally settles on a candidate. Because the ones they have floated so far do NOT have the Independents votes. And THOSE are the votes that decide presidential elections……………..
Posted by: Searambler | October 3, 2011, 3:37 pm 3:37 pm
God help us all if Palin jumps in……Any of them would be better than Obama.
Posted by: oonogil7 | October 3, 2011, 3:09 pm.
Even Palin? Bachmann? Perry? Gingrich? I’m surprised at this, you’re usually not this ideological. I completely disagree with you. Respectfully.
Posted by: Searambler | October 3, 2011, 3:40 pm 3:40 pm
After this wanna be king has shown himself to be hell bent on our country’s destruction, I want to see him decimated. Noone deserves to be beaten more than a liar, who is only halfway done with his
agenda. From day one..the lies. arrogance. intimidation,inciting class warfare, telling people what they can and can’t make,and the complete disgust I feel with this Healthcare sham.
May he roam a golf course somewhere in 2012.
Posted by: joanne | October 3, 2011, 3:48 pm 3:48 pm
Well it depends who runs for the GOP.
With obamas dismal performance, he is bound to lose.
Posted by: jonny | October 3, 2011, 3:49 pm 3:49 pm
Luv watchin liberals twist in the wind….. and there’s a Noreaster blowin in boys!
A half eaten ham sandwich will trounce Oblunder in the general. Every clear thinking person knows this. But… not the liberal. While he knows damn well what I say is true – the liberal pontificates to other dimwitted liberals how this is ” going to be a close one ! ” – “It will be a hard fought victory ! ”
Ha ha ha ha !!!!! Oh ladies! Your destruction is upon us all , led by your dear leader. Oblunder has detroyed you AND your failed ideology. DESTROYED .
‘A shellacking’ aint gonna quite cover what’s about to happen in 2012 . American is getting ready to flush that toilet that is liberalism – once and for all.
Posted by: Max Leygrume | October 3, 2011, 3:56 pm 3:56 pm
Hopefully we will be saying goodbye to this Marxist un-American president in a little over a year. They will now be free to live in a country that the love. Iran, Russia, France, Greece. Let’s see where they go.
Posted by: REAL American | October 3, 2011, 4:02 pm 4:02 pm
3 years ago i was made to feel guilty about being white and having a job. we have come along way in 3 years as it is only a handful of people who continue to villify those who have prospered under the american dream. we have also learned that we are not dismissive or even durissive when it comes to the rest of the world. we , the american people do come first and we have to protect what is ours.obama did take out some major terrorist and i commend him for that. the liberal experiment however failed miserably and we may not have to deal with it for another 40 years.
Posted by: catman | October 3, 2011, 4:07 pm 4:07 pm
This only proves there is a G-d.
Posted by: KansasGirl | October 3, 2011, 4:17 pm 4:17 pm
Do not trust what Obama says. The devil’s greatest victory has been convincing people that he does not exist. The 2008 election was proof positive that he does exist.
Posted by: REAL American | October 3, 2011, 4:34 pm 4:34 pm
The poll is moot until the Republican Candidate has been decided.
Posted by: Taintedbylies | October 3, 2011, 4:35 pm 4:35 pm
REAL American | October 3, 2011, 4:34 pm…………….the devil lives on Wall Street and in Ivory Towers. You’ve been duped.
Posted by: Taintedbylies | October 3, 2011, 4:37 pm 4:37 pm
Lets hope he looses, if he wins this country is in deep trouble.
Posted by: Freedom | October 3, 2011, 4:43 pm 4:43 pm
I am college educated and have a J.D. It is my experience that non-college educated Americans have not been as thoroughly brain-washed as college educated Americans. Public education in this country has become “an agent of change”. That is the name of required curriculum for public school teachers. Although the unemployment rate of non-college educated citizens is higher than college educated citizens, the unemployment rate of non-college educated citizens has actually fallen in the last five years while the unemployment rate of college educated citizens has risen. It is misleading and inaccurate to pool all of the non-college educated into one category since the vast majority of the non-college educated are intelligent and hard working, but did not go into debt to be given a diploma. If your child is intelligent and hard working, then they will do well whether or not they pursue degrees. If they are lazy or unable, a degree simply cannot change that. That is not to say that there is not some opportunity for them, but the returns will be greatly diminished.
Posted by: Citizen 34,876 | October 3, 2011, 4:58 pm 4:58 pm
Let’s hope that the majority today in the majority at the polls.
Posted by: john werneken | October 3, 2011, 5:05 pm 5:05 pm
This article is BS. Especially on the predictive (or rather non-predictive) values of similar polls.
Who expected Ronald Reagan to win in October ’79?
Who expected Bill Clinton to win in October ’91?
Even closer to us…
Everyone thought Clinton was going to win the Democratic nomination in October of 2007, and who thought that John McCain was going to grab the GOP nomination?
In the same time, it is also interesting to note that, in the average of polls for Obama vs. Republican Field, Obama is leading against EVERY GOP CANDIDATE.
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Posted by: WiseObserver | October 3, 2011, 5:07 pm 5:07 pm
President Obama is in the same situation President Trman was in in 1947. He had a “do nothing” Congress to deal with and he vetoed the Taft Hartley act over the objections of Congrees, The media with their polls said he had no chance what-so-ever of being re-elected.
The media didn’t count on the common sense and the fairness of the Amercan people, needless to say Truman won re-election
Posted by: tferretti | October 3, 2011, 5:17 pm 5:17 pm
@tferretti – your post speaks to the absurdity of today’s liberal. There’s absolutely NO WAY you believe anything you wrote up there – utter fantasy but I LOVE the fact that you and those like you live there…
To compare this moronic disgrace to Truman or any other actual commander in chief (carter included!) is folly of the highest order.
Here’s what obama has that NONE of the others could boast :
* proven liar
* Solyndra
* Fast and Furious
* Race-baiter king
* marxist
*proven liar ( oops already said that)
* Utter failure
Other than that – he’s a shoe-in !
Posted by: Max Leygrume | October 3, 2011, 5:52 pm 5:52 pm
I like President Obama. I feel he is very intelligent. It is disgusting and unfair how America in general isn’t giving him a fair opportunity to do his job. Congress: the GOP… It is blatent disrespect. Even on CNN, they don’t respect him enough to call him President Obama. They just refer to him as “Obama”. I see it as Bush, Clinton, and Bush all had 8 years of a fair shot to present their plan and work through it for the entire term. Regardless of how smart, dumb, stupid they all may have been at times. They were all given a fair chance. And for some reason, this President, our President is being scrutinized for every little thing. Why? Things, change was not: is not going to happen over night. Not even in 4 years. Patience. Where is the patience? No, I don’t like how things are right now. But, honestly; were they any better before he got in office? It’s like he got in there and “All OF A SUDDEN” everything gets shot to crap???? I respect his effort, commitment and purpose. That’s better that anyone else running.
Posted by: Kandice | October 3, 2011, 5:52 pm 5:52 pm
@Kandice – I think it’s all prolly cuz of racism.
Don’t you ?
Posted by: Max Leygrume | October 3, 2011, 6:19 pm 6:19 pm
Let’s face it. Obama is not only an airhead, but worse, he’s a commie. Fortunately, many Americans have wised up to these facts. Isn’t it time you woke up too? Get out of your stupor. You also have a responsibility to defend your country against a commie takeover. Although I am NO FAN of Wall Street, I recognize the commie protests in New York for what they are. Commie activists are at work again, they same way they led the Vietnam protests. The commies who protested the Vietnam war, did so under the pretense of caring for the welfare of the suffering Vietnamese people. HOWEVER, as soon as the US pulled out of Vietnam, instead of rushing in to help the Vietnamese population who were being imprisoned & murdered, these commies just walked away. After all, their mission was accomplished. They had succeeded in their campaign to coerce the US to pull out, thereby handing the Vietnamese communists full victory & assumption of power. JUST FOR YOUR KNOWLEDGE, THAT’S JUST HOW COMMIES WORK. Sorry to burst your clueless bubble.
Posted by: kennie | October 3, 2011, 6:56 pm 6:56 pm
As long as the GOP ‘clown show’ continues….these polls mean absolutely nothing. Until a candidate has been decided in the GOP ranks there is absoluely no clarity whatsoever. Because if the GOP chooses Romney the ‘extreme right teap partier types’ will have a ‘cow’ and run their own candidate and their votes on the right will be split. And if they elect one of their own….the ‘candidate’ will be rejected on the national level.
Posted by: CND FOX | October 3, 2011, 7:32 pm 7:32 pm
The choice between Republican and Democrat is akin to making a choice between a 44 magnum and a 12 gauge shotgun when committing suicide: in the end, it won’t matter to you…but how much of a mess do you want to leave for your next of kin? But either way, there WILL be a mess left to clean up.
Eventually, when the American people finally get tired of the circus in Washington D.C., they’ll quit voting for EITHER of these groups of clowns.
Posted by: AmericaThePitiful | October 3, 2011, 7:45 pm 7:45 pm
For nearly 3 years Obama has been the most extreme left wing, anti-business President in U.S. history. We thought we were getting a new 21st century man to lead us into the new century, instead we got tired, old, stale, recycled, failed 1960s stupid liberalism that didn’t work then, and is even less relevant for the 21st century. We haven’t had any President damage the nation this badly in well over 100 years. Our economy can’t recover until we change direction, and Obama has shown he is completely incapable of trying something new. His answer to everything is another trillion dollars in wasted spending, Solyndra’s and debt! Nov 2012 can’t get here soon enough!
Posted by: valwayne | October 3, 2011, 10:03 pm 10:03 pm
A sock puppet would beat the “ONE”
Posted by: OCCAM | October 4, 2011, 12:01 am 12:01 am
I don’t think changing presidents is going to help much if the extreme partisanship that has eroded all confidence in Congress continues.
Posted by: manuel | October 4, 2011, 12:29 am 12:29 am
Plain and simple……..it is the economy stupid! BHO is done.
Posted by: Camper | October 4, 2011, 5:57 am 5:57 am
We might just run Porky Pig! Broken promises! Liberal agenda! Wasted taxpayer dollars! How long will we suffer under liberalism? He has taken an economic mess, and made it an economic disaster. Wall Street and Unions have benefitted from the liberal policies, while the working class suffer the loss of jobs, and higher energy prices. We have paid the price of liberalism, and we can only hope that those of voting age will remember this, and pass it on to the next generations. The media created president has failed miserably. Many who supported this president, now realize the job was above his pay grade. He may be a good man, but america needs a good leader.
Posted by: Sherlocktoo | October 4, 2011, 7:51 am 7:51 am
“… Conservatives are far more confident about the Republican nominee.” There’s no nominee, however they’re confident about zero?
Posted by: newz4i | October 4, 2011, 10:23 am 10:23 am
Let me know when the clown show that is the GOP Primary is done. In the meantime, I already plan on voting for Obama because none of the clowns on the right have shown me any reason to vote for them.
Posted by: Sam | October 4, 2011, 10:59 am 10:59 am
What is with all the virulent, hateful comments about Obama? Can you not come up with something reasonable to say? And by reasonable, I don’t mean just some empty rhetoric not backed up by an actual understanding of an issue.
Posted by: Chris | October 4, 2011, 11:01 am 11:01 am
Would be nice to see the O loose.
Posted by: daniel | October 4, 2011, 5:34 pm 5:34 pm
He needs to NOT be the democratic candidate. Then the democrats can win.He should lose the primary if he runs at all.
Posted by: Michele | October 4, 2011, 9:24 pm 9:24 pm
For the life of me i don’t understand all the hostility towards this president. Some people act like he’s the cause of every one of america’s problems. Maybe I’m missing something but i don’t understand how a president that’s been in office 3 years can be held accountable for problems that started 8 or 16 years ago. Granted he’s the current president so he has to be held accountable for things that happen on his watch but a lot of people are putting burdens on his shoulder that he doesn’t deserve. Americans talk about fairness but this president has never been treated in a fair manor. There were people(with power)that tried to make sure he failed as a president from day one, so when i hear the comments about the President being a divider…..i just don’t understand that.
I’m curious to see how people react towards the next president(if Obama doesn’t get re elected)once he doesn’t produce results quick enough. If a Republican is elected it will probably be business as usual and the reforms that need to be made will never happen. Obama is not perfect but at least he is trying to make changes in a thoughtful way. He seems to be trying to fix some of the problems that caused america to be put in the position that its in but the masses don’t seem to be ready for real change. I really believe that if the president gets a second term he can turn things around. Some people believe the mistake was to elect Obama but i believe the mistake was to elect some of them tea party members to congress. Not all of them are bad but some of them seem to be willing to let the country go further down the drain for an “Ideal”. I know the economy is bad and the president deserves some of the blame but he doesn’t deserve all the animosity,disrespect,racism and hate that he’s receiving. The man is trying and regardless of what some idiot like Rush Limbaugh or Glen Beck says,im sure he loves america just as much as any previous president.
I cant help but to think about that saying “Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it”. That seems to ring true for America. Regardless, i hope Obama gets re elected.
Posted by: joey | October 5, 2011, 3:11 am 3:11 am
I wonder who takes these polls because no one asked me, I defintely will vote for Obama again because I am sick of the republicans lying about what they really are doing, as soon as Obama was voted in it’s like every day they think of some slimy way to make him look bad even if it means holding americans hostage and government hostage over every little thing not funding this, not funding that the latest was FEMA, Oh it’s the presidents fault, what a bunch of hooha, he can’t do nothing because the republicans have said no to everything even if it was a good plan! Besides it’s better than the alternative my goodness the best they can get is Romney and he is awful. Lord I pray for this country if republicans get in the whitehouse again, you might as well elect the devil himself because that is what you are going to get. The devil can recite the bible and make himself look good enough to fool alot of people, however I am on to his wiles and I know we are in spiritual warfare, only the wolf in sheeps clothes this time is the republicans, (not all of them, I’m sure there are some nice ones) I just don’t know if they have enough guts to stand up agaisnt their own party, except the tea-baggers and man lets not even go there, they have had their 15 minutes of fame and are on the way out.
Posted by: Vicki645 | October 5, 2011, 7:56 pm 7:56 pm
Another GOP president???? Arent TWO and a half wars enough??? Everytime a Republican wins the WH, we go to war with whomever……………Our military can not afford another GOP president but……………………………..OMG what do we do???? Our present tone deaf president doesnt seem to know what to do…..Americans seem to be between a rock n a hard place……
Posted by: j mcmillan | October 13, 2011, 3:21 pm 3:21 pm
one would need to be crazy to think this guy is going to get another 4yrs. the nation is so upset with his lack of ability to run this nation . 2010 elections were just a sample f what will take place in 2012. if you think carter got his clock cleaned wait til you see how bad this next beatig will be. In all the years I have voted for president and thetimes we were in at the moment this looks like it will go down as the worst beating in history> The nation really voted against bush in 2008 and not for Obama. this time the antoin will vote against Obama ,it doesn’t matter who the republicans put up its not about them its about Obama and his complete failure with our economy
Posted by: george | October 15, 2011, 9:32 am 9:32 am
Yeah majority of people are racist against Obama, the fact that he is the First Black American as President which makes others(Racist) look bad and dumb. He is a very intelligent President Indeed! Compared to everyone else speaking in this comment.
Posted by: Paul | November 3, 2011, 12:42 am 12:42 am
Neither Obama nor any GOP candidate will save America. You had your cake and you ate it all. Now your government is begging for assistance from china etc. there is nothing much you can do but come down.
Most Americans do not save. they hold countless credit cards which they use unrelentingly but they expect their government to do the opposite. CUT YOUR SPENDING. stop buying all the world resources and wasting it on a population of 350m people while the rest of the world is suffering. Live within your means or below and you will sustain your America. Give America a break or at least service it. Any system subjected to the same kind of abuse which america has undergone is doomed to fail or irreparably breakdown. Finally Obama will loose the elections next year.
Posted by: izo | November 24, 2011, 12:27 pm 12:27 pm
VERRY IMPORTANTTHIS COMING ELECTION,WATCH THE BALLOT BOXES FOR FRAUD!
THAT IS HOW BARACK WON LAST TIME,i CAN’T IMAGE THAT MANY Americans THAT STUPID TO BELIEVE HIM ON ANY THING HE SAID.
i JUST HOPE WE DON’T HAVE TO GO BY THE WAY OF HOW OTHER COUNTRIES GOT RID OF THIER SO CALLED LEADERS.
gADDAFI AND OTHER LEADERS OF COUNTRIES LIKE OBAM,A DIDN’T THINK PEOPLE WOULD GO TO THE EXTENT OF REMOVING THEM.
but OBAMA THINKS HE IS UNTOUCHABLE .WE WILL SEE.
He SHOULFD SAVE HIS FAMILY OF THE EMBARASMENT AND STEP DOWN NOW!!!
Posted by: Dorris | January 18, 2012, 8:35 am 8:35 am
I just hope that Obama will get re elected – Obama only Presedint who really take care!
Posted by: SALM | January 18, 2012, 11:33 am 11:33 am
Oh and I am not racist, I could care less if it were freaking BARNEY in the office with purple skin. An idiot is an idiot whether Black, White, Spanish, etc….
Posted by: Bill Scott | January 29, 2012, 8:58 pm 8:58 pm
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