Nov 15, 2011 5:00pm

Ron Paul’s Path to the White House Goes Through Nevada

While most of the presidential candidates have virtually ignored the early voting state of Nevada, the Ron Paul campaign is making a big push there, making more trips than any of his rivals, opening two campaign offices, and unveiling his centerpiece budget plan there in October.

“It’s a natural constituency for Ron Paul,” said Eric Herzik, chair of the Political Science Department at the University of Nevada Reno.

Paul’s message of limited government and individual liberties plays well in Nevada, which is a conservative anti-tax state, but also has liberal pro-choice laws and the lowest average attendance of church in the nation, Herzik said.

A strong showing in Nevada’s Republican Caucus on Feb. 4 could give Paul a lot of momentum in the race, Herzik said.

Paul does well in caucus states like Iowa and Nevada, where superior organization and passionate supporters play to his strengths. Plus Paul’s campaign manager has reportedly said it is making a push in the state.

Paul did well in Nevada four years ago, placing second to Mitt Romney, but since then the economy has taken a severe downturn and no state has been hit harder by the collapse in the housing industry than Nevada.

That complicates the picture for Paul, because his message of “no bailouts” might fall on deaf ears in a state that is trying to rebound from 13 percent unemployment and where median income is falling, Herzik said.

Paul’s distinct libertarian streak is what draws his passionate supporters, but that support hits a ceiling of 20 percent, Herzik said. In a crowded primary, though, that could be enough to eke out a victory.

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User Comments

Freedom knows no ceiling.

Posted by: Rachael | November 15, 2011, 5:29 pm 5:29 pm

LOL! That ‘ceiling’ on Ron Paul support sure does keep rising, doesn’t it?

Posted by: Wow Paulsceilingrising | November 15, 2011, 5:50 pm 5:50 pm

Any state that would vote for Harry Reid, is a lost cause……..even among Democrats.

Posted by: Rick McDaniel | November 15, 2011, 6:17 pm 6:17 pm

Just a couple of comments. I don’t think this Eric Herzik is a knowledgeable source.

“but also has liberal pro-choice laws and the lowest average attendance of church in the nation, Herzik said.”

Not sure what this has to do with Ron Paul. He has a pro-life position and I’m sure goes to church as often as possible. I do agree that Nevada is a state that is anti-tax.

“That complicates the picture for Paul, because his message of “no bailouts” might fall on deaf ears in a state that is trying to rebound from 13 percent unemployment and where median income is falling, Herzik said.”

Not sure how this would present any problem whatsoever. The bailouts went to banks and corporations, not to taxpayers. People have lost their jobs because of the bailouts. I would think Nevada would be on board with the “no bailout” message.

Ron Paul will do well in Nevada. I’m not sure if it’s enough to overcome the mormon vote going to Mitt Romney however. Hard campaign work may be the deciding factor.

Posted by: Pyrometman | November 15, 2011, 6:39 pm 6:39 pm

Ron Paul is the only candidate that can beat Obama.

Posted by: Voter | November 15, 2011, 7:04 pm 7:04 pm

Just wanted to point out a few things. Harry Reid is a Mormon, which might help explain his election. Ron Paul is now in a 4 way tie for first in Iowa, but Cain will lose additional support in the weeks to come. Democrats who have no reason to vote in a Caucus with One candidate will support Ron Paul in his quest for a War Ending Peace. This will help Dr. Paul gain the additional hardcore voters needed to win the Iowa Caucuses. When Ron Paul wins Iowa, the dominoes begin to fall. Those who want to believe but are afraid to “waste” their vote will jump on board a train moving downhill. Those in the GOP who only want to vote for a winner will vote for the winner of Iowa. Ron Paul is going to be the Republican Nominee, and he will defeat Obama 1 on 1. How is this possible, you may ask? Ron Paul is a man of character, conviction, and ideas. Finally, for the first time since television changed our nation, substance will once again win over style.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes | November 15, 2011, 7:05 pm 7:05 pm

Ron Paul Polls in First Place in Key Early Voting State of Iowa

New survey reveals a statistical tie with Herman Cain—and that Dr. Paul’s support is unwavering

LAKE JACKSON, Texas – 2012 Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul polls well within the margin of error at first place and has an unusually loyal following that is unlikely to switch to another candidate, according to a new Bloomberg News poll.

Paul polls at a strong 19 percent while pizza baron Herman Cain polls at 20 percent, making the first in the nation race a statistical tie. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points and was surveyed during November 10th to 12th.

Mitt Romney polls at 18 percent and Newt Gingrich at 17 percent among the likely caucus goers, while Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann earned just 7 and 5 percent, respectively. A mere 3 and 1 percent of respondents, respectively, chose Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman.

Poll highlights favorable to Dr. Paul include the following points:
Among likely caucus-goers who say their decision is final, Paul leads with 32 percent, followed by Romney and Gingrich at 25 and 17 percent, respectively; and
Among Paul supporters who backed him in the 2008 caucuses, an impressive 69 percent of those who backed Paul’s bid for the presidency in 2008 still support him now; and
Paul’s campaign leads all other campaigns in voter contact, with about two thirds of respondents saying they’ve heard from his campaign.

The Bloomberg News poll follows a recent CNN/TIME/ORC poll showing that Paul polls among the top three in the key early voting state in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and that concerning Iowa, Paul’s support is growing along with the changing nature of the field.

“The Bloomberg News poll reveals that Ron Paul is a top contender in the key early voting state of Iowa, which helps determine who will win the Republican nomination for the presidency

Posted by: Tough USA | November 15, 2011, 7:30 pm 7:30 pm

Ron Paul is and will be the winner,as We The People will be.
When Ron takes the White House, WE THE PEOPLE can ask “Is There A Doctor In The House?”
and the answer will be YES :)
Vote RON PAUL 2012

Posted by: kenny locke | November 15, 2011, 7:56 pm 7:56 pm

In your face, MSM!!! Ron Paul 2012!!!

Posted by: Mike | November 15, 2011, 8:14 pm 8:14 pm

Wow.. no yellow journalism on Dr. Paul this time Mr Jason Volack???

Posted by: ciscokid | November 15, 2011, 8:47 pm 8:47 pm

I vote to raise that ceiling.

Posted by: Ben | November 15, 2011, 9:09 pm 9:09 pm

Servers and bartenders love Ron Paul.

No Tax on Tips!!!! Everyone I know is voting for Ron Paul.

Posted by: Bluegillmaster | November 15, 2011, 9:09 pm 9:09 pm

O.K.,so this Herzik guy says things and Volack parrots for him.Admittedly he is sounding smarter for doing so,but that part about the BAILOUTS seems to stick out as nonsensical.How did the first couple of rounds of bailouts help Nevada?Is that where the C.E.O.’s retire?Is there a secret Chevy plant hidden there that gives high paying jobs to Nevada citizens?Did they work out a deal to make the other States pay all that money back with interest while still not paying their fair share?Volack you really are #1.Ha,Ha,……………..HA!

Posted by: Julian Alien | November 15, 2011, 9:19 pm 9:19 pm

The incredible rising ceiling

Posted by: Verbatim | November 15, 2011, 10:48 pm 10:48 pm

“Paul did well in Nevada four years ago, placing second to Mitt Romney, but since then the economy has taken a severe downturn and no state has been hit harder by the collapse in the housing industry than Nevada. That complicates the picture for Paul, because his message of “no bailouts” might fall on deaf ears in a state that is trying to rebound from 13 percent unemployment and where median income is falling, Herzik said.”

Ron Paul WARNED that this would happen. If ANYthing Nevada is listening now!!!

President Paul!!!

Posted by: Nevada Loves Ron Paul | November 15, 2011, 10:59 pm 10:59 pm

“That complicates the picture for Paul, because his message of “no bailouts” might fall on deaf ears in a state that is trying to rebound from 13 percent unemployment and where median income is falling, Herzik said.”

Ron Paul WARNED that this correction would happen due to the Federal Reserve of cheap money. If ANYthing Nevada is listening now!!!

President Paul!!!

Posted by: Ted Michaels | November 15, 2011, 11:01 pm 11:01 pm

AIPAC is trying their best to discredit Dr. Paul statistics. The most recent poll by MSNBC does not show Dr. Paul in top 5.

Posted by: Dan | November 15, 2011, 11:04 pm 11:04 pm

I live in Nevada – I’m a Mormon – I’m voting for Ron Paul!

Posted by: Carolyn | November 15, 2011, 11:14 pm 11:14 pm

Dr. Paul is one of the very last honest men left in politics today. He cannot be bought. He cannot be silenced. His voting record speaks for itself. He’s been a Congressman for 10 terms, and has never once been caught in a lie. He has been right about everything that caused the financial crash of 2008. He’s on CSPAN predicting exactly what would happen if we passed the bailout in 2008. He’s on CSPAN predicting that we would lose our liberties step by step if we went to war with Iraq in 2002. He said in Sept of 2001 that Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac would lead to a housing bubble, that would in time burst leaving us with nothing but debt. Then in Sept 2010 he again points out that the bubbles were caused by excess credit created by the FED. He points out in Dec of 98 that Clinton bombing Iraq and killing hundreds of civilians and bombing that aspirin factory in Sudan that also caused 100s of civilian deaths was unconstitutional, and that it would come back to haunt us. He said it was an act of war, he said it would cause problems, that our policies were destroying Iraq with blockades. “We’re liable to have more terrorist attacks.” In Oct of 2001 Osama bin Laden himself said that 1 million children in Iraq have died and were still dying because of the blockades. Dr. Paul has been right on EVERYTHING. All you have to do is Google youtube cspan ron paul. Look it up for yourself like I did. Our policies are causing terrorist attacks. Our monetary policies caused and are causing our financial crises. We need to fundamentally change both our foreign and monetary policies. No other candidate has shown any understanding of the underlying causes of our problems. To correct the problems you have to understand the causes.

Posted by: PattyFromTexas | November 15, 2011, 11:23 pm 11:23 pm

I vote Ron Paul- no matter what!

Posted by: jnp libertylover | November 16, 2011, 12:49 am 12:49 am

It’s either Ron Paul or the status quo and we know how the status quo has worked out. I am a staunch Ron Paul supporter for one, he helped me protect my 401K BEFORE the crash and two he tells the truth! I pray that more people would listen to his message and enrich their own lives! God bless Ron Paul!

Posted by: Rosco1776 | November 16, 2011, 12:57 am 12:57 am

“Herzik”…? Sounds like a neocon Israel-firster to me.

Posted by: ADP | November 16, 2011, 4:48 am 4:48 am

I live in west Texas and the tv is flooded with Rick Perry ads. The ads are slick and clean. I believe he had to practice for hours and do several takes to get it right. To my dear governor I say: 1) I had to take some time to collect my thoughts on who to vote for president. 2) Oooops!!! I am voting for Ron Paul. 3) My Ron Paul yard sign is up and the Ron Paul bumper stickers are on my trucks. 4) Rick-there are some nice little ranches here in west Texas where you can wander the south 40 during the day, but try to remember how to get back to the barn at night. You will be happy there.

Posted by: kilo | November 16, 2011, 5:03 am 5:03 am

Georgia here, voting for Ron Paul.
I hold meetings at my retirement community to get the word out about Ron Paul, since people are interested in the man but get no information from the news on TV and most of my friends here don’t have computers.
One thing I can tell you, when they do hear about him, they like him.
By the way, nice article.

Posted by: JG | November 16, 2011, 6:13 am 6:13 am

Romney certainly has the money. Wall Street financial interests have abundantly filled his coffers. Also many LDS members are eager for their faith to be seen as uncontroversial and the election of one of their own would be the proof they are looking for, hence their strong tendency to pick Romney.

However, Romney has two big problems, foremost of which is that he is not likable. Maybe it’s his stunning good looks that make him seem to be a life-size political Ken doll, a plastic personality enhanced by his perpetual closed-lip smile. More likely it’s his all-business-all-the-time demeanor that says this is no-one you would feel comfortable talking to or visiting with, like a door-to-door salesman sitting in your living room that you’d like to give the bum’s rush.

Second is Romney’s well-known flip-floppery that leaves voters with the feeling that they are being lied to with positions adopted for pure political convenience.

The Romney/Paul contrast is stark. Ron Paul is self-effacing and a baby doctor with a warm bedside manner. There is palpable love in the room when he speaks to gatherings of his supporters. Huge crowds show up to bask in his presence on university campuses. Supporters don’t wait for the Paul campaign to tell them what to do, they make their own signs, hold their own rallies, organize their own fundraisers. Literally thousands have made YouTube videos promoting his campaign.

Paul is also seen as absolutely honest because he does not pander but sticks to his outside-the-mainstream viewpoints that he has voiced for decades and has voted for, many times as the lone dissenting voice in Congress. More importantly, Paul’s positions are not simply an odd grab-bag assortment of quirky ideas but part of a cohesive liberty-based philosophy that, once recognized, and embraced, even by Mormons, immunizes his growing base of support from appeals by other candidates. Paul’s base is radically loyal.

The Paul/Romney contest will be fascinating to watch, especially since the face of the Nevada GOP has changed in Paul’s favor. No other candidate is likely to make much headway.

Posted by: Jim McClarin | November 16, 2011, 9:04 am 9:04 am

Ron Paul is the shot in the arm this country has needed for 20+ years. VOTE RON PAUL 2012. the other bumper stickers might look like these:

-OBAMA / ROMNEY 2012 ( Romney of course with his ROMNEY CARE is a sure fit for Obama )
-OBAMA / GINGRICH 2012 ( Gingrich took 300K from Dems to Lobby GOP Repubs on housing )
-OBAMA / PERRY 2012 ( Perry with his educating illegal immigrants, right up Obama’s alley )
-OBAMA / CAIN 2012 ( Pro Choice Comments and talk of exchanging Guantanamo Bay prisoners for one soldier )

I could keep going but I think you get the point. RON PAUL 2012!!!!

Posted by: bm2112 | November 16, 2011, 10:01 am 10:01 am

The ceiling used to be 10%. Now it’s 20%. I guess it’s kind of like the debt ceiling, it always goes up.

Posted by: QQQ | November 16, 2011, 10:10 am 10:10 am

So Mr Eric Herzik, you say that Dr Paul’s support caps at 20%. Well sir, I vote to raise THAT ceiling !!!
I’m in New Jersey – Air Force reservist – graduate student – previously apathetic to American politics-
There’s no way I’m switching my vote!!!
RON PAUL 2012

Posted by: Joe | November 16, 2011, 10:56 am 10:56 am

So Mr Eric Herzik you say support for Ron Paul has hit a 20% ceiling?! Well I vote to raise that cieling (pun intended)
I’m a New Jersey voter – Air Force reservist – loan-burdened graduate student – a previously apathetic to American politics.
There’s no way I’m switching my vote !!!
RP 2012

Posted by: Joe | November 16, 2011, 10:58 am 10:58 am

It used to be that 12% was the ceiling, now it’s 20%.
His message of no bailouts will fall on deaf ears because of the unemployment rate, because of the housing market in that state!!!! ???
My mind has been blown.

Posted by: DH | November 16, 2011, 11:31 am 11:31 am

I remember back when the ceiling was 8%…

Posted by: Adam | November 16, 2011, 1:33 pm 1:33 pm

I’m Mormon, unemployed, and a Nevadan. I’m voting Ron Paul. No one else even comes close to having my vote.

Posted by: Merritt | November 16, 2011, 3:05 pm 3:05 pm

“Ron Paul has the best chance against Obama maybe the republicans only chance and here is why, If Ron Paul is the nominee I see all republicans most independents and some democrats voting for him, if he is not the nominee I see All Ron Paul supporters writing him in (you know we will do it too because we don't really care who wins if it is not going to be Ron Paul) and independents may also write him in or go with Obama or the Republican nominee barely any democrats will go with the republican nominee at all. Ron Paul may end up getting more votes than the (R) nominee and Obama you never know. but you do know that the republican nominee can not win without the Ron Paul supporters and we are ALL sticking with Ron Paul right up until the end even if we have to write him in. So if the GOP wants to win they NEED to nominate Ron Paul.”

Posted by: Ilona | November 17, 2011, 6:59 pm 6:59 pm

Dr Paul was going to win the 2008 caucus here in Nevada, so the powers that be (were) turned out the lights on the caucus and no vote was taken.

Posted by: Norma | November 18, 2011, 7:38 am 7:38 am

How do they know what his ceiling is? They aren’t polling people who only use cell phones which make up the majority of his supporters. The so-called scientific polls are conducted using land lines, so their polling numbers are bs.

Posted by: Danielle B. | November 18, 2011, 9:27 am 9:27 am

Top 100 reasons NOT to vote for Ron Paul.
2) Paul is a racist and does not support Civil Rights. In 2004, during the 40th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act, Paul spoke against the Civil Rights Act. The only congressman to vote against the honoring of the Civil Rights Act. ~ Interview with Chris Matthews of MSNBC.

Posted by: Spike_dawg | November 29, 2011, 1:31 am 1:31 am

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