Can Gingrich Stay Positive? Will Romney Go Negative? A Preview of Saturday’s ABC / Yahoo Iowa debate
EmailCome to ABC News and Yahoo! at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday to watch the Republican presidential debate in Des Moines, sponsored by ABC News, Yahoo News, WOI-TV, The Des Moines Register and the Iowa GOP. You will be able to provide real-time feedback, and to read and watch live coverage and analysis.
Amy Walter is the political director for ABC News and David Chalian is the Washington bureau chief for Yahoo News. Here is their analysis of what to look for when the candidates take the stage.
By David Chalian and Amy Walter
David Chalian: With 25 days to go before Iowa Republicans brave the January cold to head to their caucuses and cast the first votes in the 2012 GOP nomination battle, Saturday night’s debate seems particularly well timed to hear the candidates’ closing arguments.
Amy Walter: And ironically these candidates have spent less time in Iowa than we’ve seen from presidential candidates in recent years. So they are here to make the case not just to Iowans—whom they have kind of ignored for the last few months—but to a national Republican electorate still trying to figure out what kind of nominee it wants to face Obama.
So, given the stakes, what should we expect to see from the newest frontrunner, Newt Gingrich?
Chalian: First and foremost, I expect to see an inherent tension within Gingrich on stage. He has had such great success trying to stay above the fray and has made his pledge to promise only positive campaigning. It seems to me that will be in direct conflict with being the frontrunner and the likely target of nearly everyone else on that stage. Watching how he navigates through that tension will be fascinating, don’t you think?
Walter: Absolutely. And, then there’s the fact that Gingrich has, in the past, been his own worst enemy. Staying on message has never been his strong suit.
But, his opponents have to be careful too. As we’ve seen in past debates, the candidate who stays above the fray—whether that’s Cain or Gingrich—has benefitted. So, I’m just as fascinated to see what Romney does. Does he try to let the other candidates take their shots at Newt or will he have to do it himself?
Chalian: A good question. And one that they have been wrestling with at his Boston campaign headquarters in recent days. I don’t recall ever seeing as aggressive and overt a launch of a contrast/comparative phase of a campaign (within a nomination fight) as we saw with the Romney campaign this week. That kind of direct attack on Gingrich’s record suggests to me Romney is prepared to do a lot of the heavy lifting himself Saturday and not simply rely on his fellow competitors. The lesson of Tim Pawlenty from June, right? If you launch a pre-debate attack, you better follow up on it when you get on the stage.
Walter: So, the next issue: what about the other folks on stage? This is do or die time for Rick Perry, who is spending A LOT of cash on TV ads here and is about to embark on a major bus tour around the state. He’s trying to position himself as the “consistent conservative” in the race. And, of course, there’s Ron Paul, The guy who came close to winning the Iowa straw poll back in August and has a serious opportunity to win it all in January.
Chalian: Perry’s strategic decision to double down on capturing the social conservatives that have driven Iowa caucuses past is very interesting to me. Polls have shown that the economy is the driving force for the Iowa electorate similar to how it is nationally. This seems like an effort to capture that Huckabee vote from 2008, but the electorate may be different in terms of size and makeup on Jan. 3, 2012 than it was on Jan. 3, 2008. Many Perry aides seem to think it is the only shot they’ve got, but if he doubles down on the social conservative wing of the party and loses, I’m not sure he gets a ticket out of Iowa.
Paul represents the greatest question to me about this cycle. Does his additional money, organization, and poll strength compared to his 2008 run translate into a motivated army of activists who show up on caucus night. No way for us to answer that yet, but it is a very big unresolved question that hangs over this process.
Bachmann and Santorum have probably done more in-person campaigning than any of the others in Iowa, but as you said at the top — that doesn’t seem to be the roadmap for success this election cycle.
Walter: So, in the end, the candidate who “wins” the debate will be the one who is able to not only engage and energize the Republican base, but one who also looks like he/she is able to translate that success beyond the primary season and into the general election. Today, polls show that Gingrich is that guy. But, will he still be that guy on Sunday morning?
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Will the establishment media continue to marginalize Ron Paul message of peace, prosperity, and liberty?
Posted by: Scott Fox | December 10, 2011, 10:34 am 10:34 am
Of course they will Scott. The media decides the candidate and they don’t even try to dispute that…
Posted by: AJ187 | December 10, 2011, 11:20 am 11:20 am
I’m voting for Ron Paul even if I have to write him in
Posted by: sovereign | December 10, 2011, 11:34 am 11:34 am
Newt has stuck his foot in his mouth again. In order to garner a few Jewish votes, he says the “Palestinians are an invented people”. The Palestinians were part of the land of Israel. When Israel became a state in 1945 they asked the Palestinians to stay and become Israeli citizens, many did. The Israeli parliament (Knesset) has a lot of Palestinian representatives.
Because of pressure from the surrounding Arab counties many Palestinians left Israel and became refugees in Gaza and the surrounding Arab states. These are a people the Israelis know they have to deal with.
If Newt thinks he can fool the Jews in this country and Israel into believing his rewrite of history he is sadly mistaken. Jews and Israelis alike know he is nothing but a buffoon. As I said, Newt is no history guru; he rewrites history instead of learning from actually what occurred.
Posted by: tmferretti | December 10, 2011, 12:21 pm 12:21 pm
Both will lose, and Ron Paul will again rise to the top simply for telling the truth.
Posted by: Ben | December 10, 2011, 3:51 pm 3:51 pm
The media isn’t talking about Ron Paul because he’s not winning people. Writing in 20 million times to a news comment box isn’t going to make Ron Paul win.
Posted by: Mel | December 10, 2011, 4:00 pm 4:00 pm
Who’s this tool on the left side of the screen who just has to throw in there that “Ron Paul has no chance of being nominated?” Now the national polls are showing Paul in a solid third place so he is, without dispute, a top tier candidate who, by the way, has the most most steady and solid support of any other candidate. Note how he didn’t say Perry, Bachmann and Santorum don’t have any chance of being elected, even though all three of them continue to slip farther and farther away. I guess in Santorum’s case he was never really up there to begin with, so he is now where he has always remained…at the bottom of the heap. But no, no, no, RON PAUL is the one with no chance.
I can’t wait for Paul to tear up the debate on your air, ABC, and show you just how electable he is, despite your disgusting (and obvious) attempt to marginalize further someone who has officially entered into the top tier.
Posted by: Erik | December 10, 2011, 4:09 pm 4:09 pm
Ron Paul is the ONLY true conservative. Ron Paul is in the top 3 now, tied for 2nd. The Grinch and FlipFlop Mitt support the corrupt “Patriot” Act and undeclared Wars. They want to expand Patriot Act powers and support the terrible NDAA bill. Meanwhile, Ron Paul has fought for the American people for 30 years, advocating sound monetary policies, ending the Wars, Auditing the Fed, ending the multi-billion dollar Drug War and repealing the Patriot Act. Ron Paul fights for peace, prosperity and liberty.
He is the only GOP candidate who supports reducing the size and powers of the Federal government, allowing the states to vote for themselves what laws they enact, instead of having their money taken away and given a portion back with rules & regulations attached, like the Dept. of Education forcing No Child Left Behind on states or get none of their money back if they don’t comply. Ron Paul is the only hope we have for restoring the economy and liberties to the American people.
Posted by: Mike Ikeo | December 10, 2011, 4:12 pm 4:12 pm
The remark that Ron Paul cannot win the nomination is simply rude and unnecessary. WHy dismiss him??? And then to go on about how Bachman or Santorum might win it?? WTF Mention either of those two where I live, NH, and people fall down laughing. Ron Paul, get great respect for his honesty, his ideas, his steadfast resolve, and his humility. If a decent man like Dr. Paul has no chance then God help this nation.
Posted by: Rick | December 10, 2011, 4:29 pm 4:29 pm
RON PAUL WILL WIN
Posted by: David Yes | December 10, 2011, 4:36 pm 4:36 pm
The media doesn’t want to talk about Ron Paul because HE CAN WIN! They want a crony like Romney or Newt because Obama can tear them apart. The real threat to the Obamanation is Ron Paul!
Posted by: John | December 10, 2011, 4:43 pm 4:43 pm
I just hope Obama can still win despite his horrendous record so far.
Just sayin’, lol.
Posted by: Kimberly | December 10, 2011, 4:58 pm 4:58 pm
The media does not like Ron Paul because he is honest and moral so they try to ignore him. I too will write him in if he is not the nominee. If people want four more years of economic ruin then by all means vote for the conservative when he wants to be Gingrich or the flip flopper Romney..
I want a president who is going to truly work to cut the budget not just balance it. I want a president who knows economics and has the most support from our military and that is Ron Paul.
Posted by: Pamela LaBrake | December 10, 2011, 5:03 pm 5:03 pm
Saying Ron Paul will win 20 million times will not make him win ! Your right ! But its the 20 million people saying that he will win! gives him the Victory !
Posted by: Paul | December 10, 2011, 5:03 pm 5:03 pm
LOL, Ron Paul doesn’t stand a chance.
Just sayin’, lol.
Posted by: Kimberly | December 10, 2011, 5:13 pm 5:13 pm
Ron Paul is the crazy uncle on your mother’s side of the family who you’d be afraid to leave alone with the family cat.
Posted by: Skylon | December 10, 2011, 5:14 pm 5:14 pm
Ron Paul 2012! Bring the troops home! Cut the budget!
Posted by: Alex | December 10, 2011, 5:31 pm 5:31 pm
Why do you keep hitting yourself in the head with a hammer? Because it feels so good when I stop. Why would Americans put the Obamashizzle in the Oval for another four years? Is it possible we could be THAT stupid again? Shame (and woe) unto us if we do. I’m sure he was probably an adequate and charming law professor, but he just doesn’t understand what makes our economy tic. He thinks by growing government the private sector will grow. The opposite is true. The trillions he’s running up (unprecedented rate of deficit spending) will lead to higher taxes for every American. No protected groups will be spared, despite Obama’s promises. With an economy largely driven by consumer activity it would seem that shriking consumers’ paychecks is really a stupid way to usher in prosperity. How is it that you people can’t process the obvious?
Posted by: s | December 10, 2011, 6:01 pm 6:01 pm
Why is it the poor have to put up with more regulations; whereas the Republicans want government to get out of the way for the rest? Some examples include gays marrying, abortions, drug testing for welfare, and other regulations. There are whistle blowers on programs. Yet I thought the Constitution offers all Americans rights to due process and the rights from search. Have you ever read your medical forms you sign? There can be many reasons the government may look at your medical records. I thought elected officials are suppose to uphold the US Constitution to all. I guess except if you are poor and cannot afford an attorney or lobby group.
Posted by: Dave Des Moines | December 10, 2011, 6:05 pm 6:05 pm
The founding fathers wrote the Constitution,Ron Paul is saving the Constitution!!!!!!
Posted by: Grace Davis | December 10, 2011, 6:29 pm 6:29 pm
RON PAUL 2012
Posted by: Jonathan J | December 10, 2011, 6:31 pm 6:31 pm
F the networks! RON PAUL will take Iowa! Then Iowa will be dismissed as a non factor.
Posted by: Truth | December 10, 2011, 6:32 pm 6:32 pm
Ron Paul will win the debate as he always does… not with talking points… not with one liners… but by offering the only substantive difference to all that has ruined the Republican Party over the last 20 years.
Posted by: Tommy | December 10, 2011, 6:42 pm 6:42 pm
Here’s a funny stat for ya –
Ron Paul is mentioned over 30 times in the comments section of this page.
He’s only mentioned twice in the article.
Gingrich is mentioned 7 times in the article – twice in the comments section.
Romney is mentioned 4 times in the article – 3 times in the comments section.
Clearly PEOPLE that are interested in the debate want to hear ron paul –
But ABC doesn’t want to market him – sounds like a great business plan by ABC.
Posted by: Gestotamoseke | December 10, 2011, 6:43 pm 6:43 pm
I know some media organizations aren’t willing to admit it but Ron Paul is clearly the real front-runner in Iowa (according to most scientific polls) and will most likely win that state’s Caucus and go on to do very well in New Hampshire.
Posted by: James Sheffield | December 10, 2011, 6:57 pm 6:57 pm
My guess is Ron Paul win as usual. I’m also willing to guess you will attempt to brush him under the rug or marginalize him yet again. Both Gingrich and Mitt are paper tigers the media keeps propping up. I see no passion for either of them from voters. The desperation from the media is so apparent to force these two clowns down our throats. When Paul takes Iowa you will finally have to admit this man is the frontrunner and he has been for sometime …It’s just that the MSM has refused to acknowledge it.
Posted by: RobGio33 | December 10, 2011, 6:59 pm 6:59 pm
Why isnt Ron Paul on the cover of this story?
Posted by: Nick Sloan | December 10, 2011, 7:02 pm 7:02 pm
Who will win this debate? The same candidate that’s won the last 14 or so.
Posted by: Thomas Burke | December 10, 2011, 7:06 pm 7:06 pm
Ron Paul is a Libertarian, not a Republican.
He is an extremist who favors virtually dismantling the federal government and stripping it of powers the Constitution explicity grants it (the regulation of interstate commerce, the levying of taxes, the promotion of the general welfare).
He is UNELECTABLE. The vast majority of even those on the Right reject his radical, Randian platform. Even those who favor “drowning the federal government in a bathtub” reject him for his positions on the military and war powers.
Like Cain, Bachmann, Gingrich and the other UNELECTABLE candidates, we liberals would LOVE to see him be the nominee!
Face it, the GOP is SPLIT. They can’t even settle on a candidate. Meanwhile, polling shows over 80% of Democrats and roughly 30% of Independents firmly behind Obama. Those percentages will only increase as we get closer to election day and the alternative is brought into sharp focus.
You guys are done. Stick a fork in ya’ :)
Posted by: Raven | December 10, 2011, 7:12 pm 7:12 pm
Ron Paul just like every other poll will say he won!
But he will be cheated. of course
go RP
Posted by: Dj Waters | December 10, 2011, 7:15 pm 7:15 pm
I’ve never seen so many so scared of the one person who truly desires to save this Country. He has spent his life fighting for US and is not in it for his own agenda as the others are. Ron Paul is electable and has been elected more times than any of the others. His record stands on its own and stands for the good of our United States. Some people need to open their eyes and minds to whats in front of them. RON PAUL 2012!!!
Posted by: G Teague | December 10, 2011, 7:27 pm 7:27 pm
None can win they are all losers!
Posted by: Gil O | December 10, 2011, 7:56 pm 7:56 pm
The Ron Paul haters are out here again, saying resistance is futile, we must keep the status quo in place, we must keep killing Muslims on the other side of the planet or they will hop on their goats and ride here, they keep saying we have to let the Goldman Sachs /Fed Res revolving door gang of theives continue to rob our country of it’s economy, they keep saying we must accept slavery to the almighty establishment of corporate cronies who have offshore bank accounts bursting at the seams. America is strong and strong willed, we were freed from slavery by our forefathers, and the status quo doesn’t even respect the US Constitution or Bill of Rights, except the part about the IRS.
Its high tide and the BS is rollin in folks, there is a lifeboat, there is a Godsend, and as goofy as you may think he is, he is THE ONE. Ron Paul, he’s got it all, accept no substitutes.
Posted by: Karizma | December 10, 2011, 7:58 pm 7:58 pm
Ron Paul all the way!
Posted by: Go Ron Go | December 10, 2011, 8:00 pm 8:00 pm
Newt has already shown his true colors. He is the ultimate flip-flopper,except for one issue…….WAR. No flip flopping on that issue. He is ready to take on Palestine,Syria,Iran,China,North Korea,Pakistan,Russia and anybody else he can think of,even though we are a bankrupt nation. He is so willing and ready to take on the whole world it is scary.If we could see the real mind of Newt Gingrich we would see the likes of Stalin and Hitler and their insatiable lust for the blood of the world. Get him out of the race for president NOW!!!!!!!
Posted by: Phyllis | December 10, 2011, 8:09 pm 8:09 pm
Gold = Money
Dollar = Coupons
End the Federal Reserve!
Vote for Ron Paul to save our nation!
Posted by: Manny | December 10, 2011, 8:21 pm 8:21 pm
If it is between Romney and Newt, I would say Ron Paul has already won! The corporate media has done all they can to stop Paul but they have no credibility anymore so Paul wins again. The federal reserve and all the criminals should be very afraid, we are going to use S 1867 on them. We will use their own criminal laws against them.
Posted by: bubba gump | December 10, 2011, 8:31 pm 8:31 pm
The hype your displaying is terrible. Sounds more like ABC News is promoting a prize fight rather than attempting to hear good points that might turn around our great country which is going down the drain
Posted by: wayne p. | December 10, 2011, 8:35 pm 8:35 pm
What a tawdry list of candidates the GOP has come up with this time around. It’s really sad. An authentic, honest, compassionate man or woman with integrity and experience could easily drag me away from my lifelong affiliation with the Democratic party. Oh wait, that’s Jon Huntsman, who didn’t meet the debate criteria because less than 5% of republicans think he’s committed to completely blowing up government. Seems like the single-digit IQ crowd won’t be satisfied until there is an extremist in power and there is no chance of compromise with the 50% of Americans who disagree with them. Obama’s not perfect, but he’s been an incredible improvement over the GOP’s last “top gun”. Now the GOP has a whole slate of candidates that are lamer than Bush?
Posted by: Scott | December 10, 2011, 8:37 pm 8:37 pm
I need the media to think for me because I have no mind of my own. I appreciate that they narrowed down my choices to two candidates. because I am way to busy to think about the future of the Untied States; and besides I am only a product of the Department of Education higher learning system with a 30 sec attention span. I in all honesty I need the media to tell me everything about myself. Am I gay or strait, do I support abortion, am I depressed, do I believe in God? Help me find the real me.
Posted by: Corrupted Media | December 10, 2011, 8:42 pm 8:42 pm
The only reason I will watch this debate is to hear what Ron Paul has to say. The other candidates opinions are like weather, they always change. RON PAUL for PRESIDENT of USA!
Posted by: Livia Keesee | December 10, 2011, 8:46 pm 8:46 pm
How can any moron say that Dr. Paul is unelectable?!? The guy has a 35 year history of voting using the constitution and only the constitution as his guide. To dislike Ron Paul is to dislike the words and vision of our founding fathers! He has no baggage, no character flaws and certainly isn’t an isolationist as many have used as their excuse for not liking him. In fact our troops have donated more to Ron Paul than all other candidates put together. So do us all a favor and do your research before you vote. If you do, there will be no question and Dr Paul will be our president.
Posted by: Derrick | December 10, 2011, 8:49 pm 8:49 pm
Ron Paul is going to win Iowa
Posted by: Jay | December 10, 2011, 8:51 pm 8:51 pm
Gingrich has proved that he is the most ignorant of all presidential candidates from both republican and democratic parties. I am utterly disgusted by his ignorant, selfish (as he only cares about Israel’s funding his campaign), arrogant, disrespectiful, deceitful, and SHAMEFUL….
Shame on you Gingrich…You are disgusting…it would be shameful of the republican party to give you the nomination. I will personally campaign against you. You are a burden on American people. You are so selfish that you are selling the American people for your campaing donations from Israel’s.
Posted by: Mustafa | December 10, 2011, 9:12 pm 9:12 pm
Wow. They’ve all said to cut taxes and deregulate. That will bring us jobs. Why is it we insist on ignoring the Bush years again?
Posted by: lexingtonlady | December 10, 2011, 9:15 pm 9:15 pm
How many candidates had done the homework to really know how many people are really unemployed today? Not percent but according to birth and death and demographics?
Posted by: Pratik Patel | December 10, 2011, 9:29 pm 9:29 pm
Ron Paul is the only one that tells the truth, and has been saying the SAME THINGS FOR 30 PLUS YEARS!!! Ask any of the other candidates if they can say that. If he is crazy for telling the truth and being consistent, then bring on crazy! I am done with flip floppers, and liars, and liberals pretending to be conservatives…
Ron Paul 2012!!!
Posted by: Bill | December 10, 2011, 9:39 pm 9:39 pm
Ron Paul was a doctor, so he is the only one qualified to talk about health care.
Ron Paul was a long term congressman and the only one who is consistant, so he is the only one qualified to talk about laws and the law making system
Ron Paul is a veteran, and he is the only one who can lead our armed forces home to peace.
Posted by: ian | December 10, 2011, 9:46 pm 9:46 pm