Unemployment Rate Key to 2012 Election
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Brian Smailowski / Bloomberg via Getty Images
Analysis from ABC News Pollster Gary Langer:
It’s hard to overstate how important the unemployment rate is to Barack Obama’s re-election prospects. Not just the number, but its trajectory, and the closely related public perception of the condition of the economy overall.
Unemployment was 7.8 percent when Obama took office; his popularity dropped as it rose (reaching a high of 10.1 percent in October 2009). But as unemployment has eased in the past few months, consumer confidence has improved to its best in nearly six months, and the president’s job approval advanced to 49 percent in recent ABC News/ Washington Post and CNN polls – his best in 9 months, excepting a brief bin Laden bounce.
For context, consider Ronald Reagan. In late 1982 unemployment hit 10.8 percent; shortly thereafter Reagan’s job approval rating bottomed out at 42 percent, the same as Obama’s low this past fall. By January 1984, unemployment was down to 8.0 percent, a half-point from today’s level. By November 1984, it was down to 7.2. percent, and Reagan easily was re-elected.
As the 2012 election season unfolds, there may be no better number to watch.
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The unemployment rate is key, but not the only issue. The republicans are obstructing, delaying, etc to keep it as high as possible because they think it will help them defeat the President.
They can’t figure out that Americans are on to them. They are desperate and know that if this economy turns around in the next five years and America starts working again they will be out of power in the Congress for the next 30 years; just as they were after FDR.
Posted by: tmferretti | January 6, 2012, 2:18 pm 2:18 pm
When gas prices go to $5,00/gal by next Summer as a result of President Obama’s inactivity the economy will crash and burn! The light at the end of the tunnel is another train coming!
Posted by: Common _ Sense | January 6, 2012, 2:29 pm 2:29 pm
I suppose if the unemployment rate got down to 7.2% President Obama could be re-elected, however he would only be the second president re-elected with unemployment above 6%. He still would have to overcome the 2/3 who view his health care plan as bad for America. He seems like a very long shot for a second term.
Posted by: Rick | January 6, 2012, 2:31 pm 2:31 pm
The Republicans (both in Congress and in state and local positions across the country) have been systematically driving up the UE rate by eliminating PUBLIC SECTOR jobs (teachers, cops, firefighters, government workers). The numbers reveal that virtually all of the recent increase in the rate was due to such public sector job losses.
Pay attention to how the Republicans always stress the UE rate, not the private sector job creation numbers (which show almost 2 straight years of GROWTH and 3 million or so jobs created to date). Also realize that the monthly private sector job totals are adjusted down and offset by the public sector losses that month…we’ve actually gained MORE private sector jobs than the totals reflect, as a result.
By deflecting attention away from the private sector job creation record of the Obama administration (which, remember, has come on the heels of a year of straight monthly LOSSES of between 250,000 and 850,000 private sector jobs under Bush, and is even more impressive in that context) and manipulating the UE rate and the monthly job totals, they hope to convince Americans that they are “worse off” now and should go BACK to the Bush-era approach.
To the typical low-information voter they appeal to, the UE rate IS “key”, which is why they are so determined to raise it and to hammer away at it.
Don’t believe the hype; their approach is the same one that cost this nation 8 million jobs and brought us to our knees. In less than 1 term, this administration has managed to recover almost half of those jobs.
Posted by: Raven | January 6, 2012, 2:39 pm 2:39 pm
RAVEN
Shush, the republicans might escape from the delusion that the Bush administration never existed.
Posted by: tmferretti | January 6, 2012, 3:19 pm 3:19 pm
Its about jobs, jobs, jobs and heavy regulations on small businesses and corporations. Obama has created an anti-business climate. Since close to 50% of the people in this country do not pay taxes the rest of the taxpayers are burdened with high taxes and we are still running record deficits. The problem with Washington is not more revenues it is to stop the spending.The democrats in the senate have not come up with a constitutionally required budget in three years. What does that tell the American people? That they believe we can continue to spend record amounts of borrowed money from China and somehow dig ourselves out of debt. Seven trillion dollars spent since Obama has been in office and he still wants more. This adminstration has not taken into account that huge inflation is going to kick in just in time for the election in 2012 and jobs will not be the only thing on peoples minds. When the price of groceries and gas double that will certainly be on thier list of priorities. Since most families in this country must live by a budget.
Posted by: Susan | January 6, 2012, 8:15 pm 8:15 pm
A lot of things can decide Obama’s fate-.
Few examples are the twenty-five million unemployed Americans, unconstitutional healthcare system, broken education and stagnant immigration system, massive slash on our military, inability to face Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, his travesty of American exceptionalism and fifteen trillion dollar deficit.
The media is no longer an influential instrument of the Obama campaign. The media is a nobody nowadays.
Posted by: Jonel | January 9, 2012, 6:21 am 6:21 am
It’s unrealistic to believe the unemployment rate is dropped in December by adding 200,000 jobs when we had 1,600,000 unemployment claims.
Using the same numbers:
Month: 8 new unemployment applicants to every 1 new job
Yearly: 96 new unemployment applicants to every 12 new jobs
16 million unemployment applicants in 2011
1.6 million new jobs in 2011
(10 times more unemployment applicants than new jobs)
Not to mention 21 million active college students and 24 million active unemployed.
These numbers are dangerous.
Posted by: Needs Vacation | January 10, 2012, 9:49 am 9:49 am
When gas prices go to $5,00/gal by next Summer as a result of President Obama’s inactivity the economy will crash and burn! Posted by: Common _ Sense | January 6, 2012, 2:29 pm.
You’re right. The president should immediately nationalize all the oil companies so he can set the price of gas at $2 a gallon. Or do you believe there is another way the president can make the price of gas go down?
Posted by: A Cynic | January 10, 2012, 10:41 am 10:41 am
Now I am going to do my breakfast, after having my breakfast coming again to read more news.
Posted by: Josefine Mclennon | January 14, 2012, 1:52 pm 1:52 pm
Is the Unemployment rate influencing 2012 elections? And is the Latino vote factoring Obama’s reelection?
Whether or not the unemployment rate is key to the 2012 presidential election is yet to be determined. Since 1956, no incumbent president has lost just because the unemployment rate fell during the two years previous to the presidential election. Also, none has won just because it rose. Unemployment may not be as crucial as some candidates would like to believe. Nevertheless, if Obama wants to get reelected, he may have to repeat what F. D. Roosevelt did: remain in the White House with an unemployment rate around 8%.
Unemployment rate may be a strong factor during this election, but it is not the only one—or at least not the most critical one.
Since WWII, unemployment is higher than it has been previous to any election, but it won’t necessarily signify Obama’s defeat in November 2012—especially taking into account that there has been no strong candidates that can challenge the incumbent president.
Republicans are more than willing to overstate the role played by unemployment in order to take advantage of those numbers and to pull water to their own mill. As stated by Rick, “To the typical low-information voter they [Republicans] appeal to, the UE rate IS ‘key’.” This is the main reason why Republicans are willing to use it as their heaviest weapon against Obama’s chances of getting reelected. Voters with no of little information can be found in every sector of our very diverse American population. To these voters, Obama’s opponents would present misleading information through the media and internet—using short but powerful messages to misinform them and gain their vote by offering them a “better” option.
A good example in which Republicans are using the unemployment rate as its main weapon would be the Latino community. The Latino vote, for instance, is still evasive to the Republican Party. Since the Latino community is one of the most affected in this economic recession, Republican candidates aim to attract them by using one of the most appreciated crisis-times possessions: jobs. Republicans regard the Latino vote as decisive since they [Latinos] are part of the large numbers of unemployed voters.
As with the 2008 election, the Latino vote is crucial to determine whether Obama stays in or leaves the White House. Being the largest minority in the country, the Latino vote has become one of the most cherished treasures coveted by both parties, which are willing to use all their paraphernalia to attract it. In spite of having unemployment as its hobbyhorse, it seems that Republicans may have a hard time outing Obama from the White House because Latinos would choose the lesser of two evils. Obama may get reelected but not necessarily by his own merits but for the lack of a good contender.
Posted by: Franko | January 23, 2012, 2:55 am 2:55 am
The comparison between the Reagan administration and the current one fails to point out the differences in their policies. The Reagan administration was business friendly and allowed the free market to do what it does best. The policies of the current administration do not promote confidence in the private sector and are unlikely to result in a Reagan era type recovery.
Posted by: RU Kidding | February 3, 2012, 2:23 pm 2:23 pm