ABC’s Latest Electoral College Estimates: Obama Vulnerable in Midwest, But Still Leading Overall

Jul 6, 2012 12:41pm

As President Obama wraps up a bus-tour through the nation’s heartland, the latest ABC Electoral College estimate shows new vulnerability for him in the Midwest. Recent polling shows a closer-than-expected contest in Michigan, a traditionally Democratic stronghold. Both Republicans and Democrats also see Wisconsin, a state Obama easily carried in 2008, as much more competitive this year. There are some Republicans who expect to see Minnesota in play.

See our interactive map here to understand how swing states could change November’s result.

Overall, however, President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the race to the 270 Electoral Votes needed to capture the White House. We list 247 electoral votes as either “leaning” or “solid” for Obama, compared to 191 for Romney.

Of the 100 electoral votes that we consider toss-ups, over half (57) are from fast-growing states that are demographically diverse — such as Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina. That should help Obama, who continues to poll well among Latino and African-American voters. Of those toss-ups, North Carolina will be the toughest for Obama to hold, while Colorado and Virginia will probably be the toughest for Romney to pick up.

Get more pure politics at ABC News.com/Politics and a lighter take on the news at OTUSNews.com

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