PM Note: How Not to Predict a Winner, Malaise 2012, Romney Working ‘Pretty Darned Hard, Obama’s ‘Overboard’ Campaign Ads

Sep 24, 2012 6:49pm

The Redskins! The Lakers! 7/11 Cups! Complex Economic Models! – From the serious to the silly, here are some different ways to prognosticate about who will win in November (along with their win/loss rate and when their streak was broken) –  http://abcn.ws/PgZNBT

11 Moments from JFK’s Secret Oval Office Tapes – http://abcn.ws/OQiFMl

Tomorrow’s odd split screen? – Obama and Michelle at UNGA vs. Obama and Michelle on ‘The View’ – And Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in NYC – http://abcn.ws/Q2WFsV

Post-Presidency? Obama on ‘The View’ Says he wants to work with kids -
Says Michelle Obama lacks the temperament to be president -
And lays out how his economic world view differs from Mitt Romney’s – http://abcn.ws/TsgeBy

Romney to Critics – He and Ryan are Working ‘Pretty Darned Hard’ - http://abcn.ws/VyzDOq
Slams Obama Over ‘Bumps in the Road’http://abcn.ws/UzvJqw
ABC’s One-n-One with Romney (VIDEO) – http://abcn.ws/Qu9GPB
(Interviewed by ABC’s Emily Friedman, BTW)

Malaise 2012 - Here’s an AP story from Bill Barrow under the headline, “Despite Disappointment, Someone Will Win” – He writes: Never have American voters re-elected a president whose work they disapprove of as much as Barack Obama’s. But Mitt Romney can’t take much comfort in that historical fact. They’ve also never elected a challenger viewed so negatively. Unless things change dramatically, this Election Day will mark a first, no matter who wins. The victor will be a sitting president with a slow economy, 8 percent-plus unemployment and an average Gallup job-approval rating below 50 percent. Or he’ll be a challenger who isn’t liked personally by a majority of the public and faces notable discord within his own party. Some Republicans point with hope to 1980 and challenger Ronald Reagan’s victory over President Jimmy Carter. Democrats point out that this isn’t 1980, and a lot has changed. http://abcn.ws/Q2hO6h

2012 as a Russian Novel - Yahoo!’s Walter Shapiro has an interesting look at some of the questions we should still be asking candidates – Who will staff Obama’s second term and does Romney have a unique way to manage the federal government?

But he starts it out with this 2012 analogy: “This race has begun to resemble an over-sized and over-written novel that you’re stuck in the middle of. You’re bored with the characters and the plot, but you’re stubbornly determined to see it through because of all the time you’ve already invested. But boy is it a long, hard slog. ” http://yhoo.it/Shq426

Obama Slams Romney With ’47 Percent’ Ad, But Admits Some Attacks ‘Overboard’ - Life imitating SNL. From Hope and Change to ads that are admittedly ‘overboard.’ “The truth of the matter is, most of the time we’re having a vigorous debate about a vision for the country, and there’s a lot at stake in this election. So, is it going to be sharp sometimes? Absolutely. But will the American people ultimately have a good sense of where I want to take the country and where Governor Romney wants to take the country? I think they will.” –  http://abcn.ws/PRHvrN  (Devin Dwyer)

Hillary Clinton’s (Subtly) Alludes to 2012 and Taxes at CGI – From Dana Hughes – When Clinton talked about the collection of taxes in countries around the world, she was careful not to talk specifically about the United States or mention political parties or names, but after speaking generally about her belief that all nations need to have a tax policy where revenue is collected in an “equitable manner,” she paused and said, “Especially from the elites” which received a huge applause from the audience. “Now I’m out of American politics but it is a fact that around the world the elites from every country are making money,” said Clinton who added with effect, “There are rich people…everywhere.”

The Tattooed Body Politic: Czech Aims to Be First Tattooed President – If Vladimir Franz can win his longshot bid to become president of the Czech Republic, he’d go down in history as the world’s first head of state with a fully tattooed head. http://abcn.ws/Quabcp (Jilian Fama)

Obama’s Short UN Schedule Prompts WH Defense – President Obama, in an unusual move, has no plans to sit down one-on-one with world leaders in New York for the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. With 43 days until the election, the president is bucking precedent and skipping the formal bilateral meetings, leaving Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to take on many of those conversations. By comparison, last year Obama scheduled a dozen official meetings. http://abcn.ws/Q29PGm  (Mary Bruce)

Scott Brown Revisits Native-American Controversy in New Ad – Brown’s latest ad for his Senate Republican campaign is titled “Who Knows” and criticizes his opponent, Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren, for self-identifying as Native-American to employers. http://abcn.ws/SgLXyr  (Elizabeth Hartfield)

Romney Says Obama Trying to “Fool” Voters, Obama Asks if Romney Wants to Start Another War – Jake Tapper’s Good Morning America report on the state of the race. http://abcn.ws/SNYCcJ  (Jake Tapper)

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