PM Note: Poll Sees Shift Toward Romney, Foreign Posture vs. Foreign Policy, A Note on Party ID, the Centenarian Demo

Oct 8, 2012 7:02pm

“That was kind of strange, trying to stuff words in me…” – Paul Ryan got a little testy in a local news report tonight over gun laws and taxes with WJRT ABC 12 – http://bit.ly/VH6Iua

Don’t Forget – Michelle Obama on Nightline Tonight. Turns out her brother helped convince her a run for the White House was OK – http://abcn.ws/UNZyPP

We’ll also have Ann Romney on GMA on Wednesday.

Oh. And Barack Obama on World News Wednesday.

Poll Suggests Swing Toward Romney - From Amy Walter – A new Pew Research Center poll which covers the days immediately following the first presidential debate  (Oct. 4-7), shows Mitt Romney swinging ahead of President Barack Obama among likely voters, 49 percent -45 percent, and tied among registered voters at 46 percent.

“Polling from Pew in mid-September had Obama up among likely voters 51-43 percent and 51-42 registered voters. Romney’s success is due in large part to his improvement among women. Back in September, Romney trailed Obama among women by 18 points. Today, the two are among women, 47 percent to 47 percent.

“The poll released today also showed Romney improving his standing from September on almost every issue including taxes, Medicare and Jobs.” More on the Pew poll – http://abcn.ws/UNZkbE

And Gallup shows tightening too – http://abcn.ws/TnmsSm

On Polls and Wild Swings – A note on polls and party ID from Golden Bear Jon Cohen at the Washington Post – “In the two new national polls, President Obama and Romney are now tied among all registered voters. In Gallup, this is change from a five-point Obama edge in the three days leading up to the Denver debate; for Pew, it is a shift from a nine-point advantage for Obama in mid-September.

“So who moved in Romney’s direction?

“Well, not political independents, for one. There was no meaningful change in their support for Obama or Romney in either poll.

“These polls show more people are now identifying as Republicans in the wake of Romney’s debate performance. Just as they showed a clear Democratic tilt earlier in the fall, and in the immediate aftermath of Romney’s “47 percent” comments. Shifts happen in the electorate. The only constant is change. If either Pew or Gallup kept their “sample balance” constant, there would be far less of a shift in their headline numbers. Poll watchers need to closely assess both trend-lines as the election draws near.” http://wapo.st/SZiTMM

Seriously Out-of-Context Photos - http://abcn.ws/Q94ejD

Foreign Policy Day – Romney Talks Tough at VMI — ‘Hope is not a Strategy’ - http://abcn.ws/WIq7sI (Emily Friedman was there)

Transcript - http://abcn.ws/SIvxWb

Postures Differ, But Policies Seem Similar - What did he propose that’s different? Here’s the rundown from Greg Krieg, with a lot of input from Dana Hughes and Luis Martinez -
On the Mideast, Iran, Syria, Libya – Romney has different things today, but his anticipated policies are at times very similar – http://abcn.ws/SJzxWf

Plus, One Fact Check -Romney said during his foreign policy speech that President Obama “has not t signed one new free trade agreement.”

Romney: “The President has not signed one new free trade agreement in the past four years. I will reverse that failure. I will work with nations around the world that are committed to the principles of free enterprise, expanding existing relationships and establishing new ones.

But Obama signed three new trade agreements – with Panama, South Korea and Colombia – about one year ago.

It is true the three trade agreements Obama signed were negotiated during the Bush administration and long stalled in Congress. But it is also true that Obama came under some fire from his political base for finally approving them.

Here’s a good primer on the issue from Univision’s Jordan Fabian - http://bit.ly/RM33bk

Centenarians for Obama? - Cool story from Devin Dwyer – “They form what is perhaps the smallest and least influential voting bloc in the 2012 presidential race. But this campaign season, the nation’s oldest voters — 100 years, plus — are proving that they may have the most grit, and an affinity for President Obama.

“Braving sweltering summertime heat, massive crowds and bitter partisanship, American centenarians with a resilient political spirit have been joining election-year rallies across the country, often despite the physical fragility that comes with great age.
“I’m 101 years old! 101 years old!” yelled one man at an Obama town hall meeting in Cincinnati in July, triggering a shouting match of ages.

“105!” screamed a woman in the back of the room, motioning to an older woman seated in a wheelchair. http://abcn.ws/Q9TKzz

Obama as George Costanza - Must-watch Power Players on what’s going on post-debate in Obamaland. Tapper refers to Will.i.am as “Mr. Am” and makes an effective and long Seinfeld analogy between Obama and George –  http://yhoo.it/UNOfHz

If You Missed Big Bird on SNLhttp://abcn.ws/VQR0Lm

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