PM Note: A ‘Normal’ Election, Swing State Road Trip, 24 M Early Votes, Long Lines, Broccoli vs. Meat

Nov 2, 2012 7:19pm

The New York City Marathon is off. The election marathon is almost over.

Saturday – Romney gives the GOP’s weekly radio address. Obama is in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Virginia, including one event with Katy Perry in Wisconsin. Romney is in New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado.

Sunday – Ed Gillespie and David Plouffe on ‘This Week’ – http://abcn.ws/UpGeIe
Obama will be in New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio and Colorado
Romney is in Pennsylvania, Virginia and Iowa.

Monday – Participate in Day of Giving to Help Hurricane Sandy Victims – http://abcn.ws/SlX4rR

Must Watch: Bill Weir’s Swing State Road Trip Through Virginia – Our correspondent mediates a friendly disagreement between a coffee-pouring waitress and a customer… hits up a bluegrass jam… and finds: “A lot of people say Loudon County is more divided than ever. Here’s proof that it is not.” http://abcn.ws/Ygfsah

The Normal Election – From Amy Walter – After three consecutive wave elections, the 2012 election is the first where we don’t expect to see major shakeups up and down the ticket. In fact, for the first time since 2006, neither party comes into November with a decided wind at its back (Democrats enjoyed a huge push in 2006/2008, while Republicans had the wind at their backs in 2010). Instead, we are looking at our first “normal” election since 2004. Even so, Democrats and Republicans disagree about what “normal” means. For Democrats, it means an electorate that is less white, more diverse and as such more demographically suited to an Obama victory. In other words, an electorate that looks similar to 2008. Republicans argue that the electorate in 2008 was more of an aberration than a trend. They think that media polls have also misinterpreted the make-up of the “new normal” electorate. Either way, this is a presidential race that is going to go down to the wire. Just eight states – Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia, Wisconsin, Florida and Colorado – will decide the White House winner.

Mr. Burns on ‘Broccoli’ Obama or ‘Meat’ Romney – Let the dog decide, he tells Smithers.
http://abcn.ws/RBjmVv

Lines Lines Lines – It took ABC News producer Seni Tienabeso 3:55 to vote early in Miami Beach today.   http://bit.ly/U4YeNr

More on early voting lines – http://abcn.ws/RBfljS

Jorge Ramos Chose the U.S. Mail – @jorgeramosnews: Aquí va mi voto. Se vale todo excepto no votar. El voto nos da poder. Que nadie decida por ti. pic.twitter.com/OeXll2Dw

Rubio to ABC’s Jonathan Karl on Florida – “It’s going to be close. It always is. But I’d rather be us than them in Florida.”

Worth the Wait? Rubio: “People need to realize the reason there are long lines is that their fellow Republicans and Independents who are voting for Mitt Romney are excited. So its worth it standing in line and waiting.” http://bitly.com/RAD97u

ABC Tracking Poll – Obama 48, Romney 49 – Gary Langer: Days before the verdict on his bid for a second term, the bad news for Barack Obama is that most likely voters think the country is headed seriously off on the wrong track. The better news for Obama: Previous incumbents have survived the same challenge. Our Election Day show kicks off at noon, and the Election Night event begins at 7 p.m. Just 43 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll say the country is headed in the right direction; 55 percent say things are pretty seriously off course. The result, hardly an ebullient reflection on Obama’s term in office, clearly defines his difficulties. http://abcn.ws/SyUgZ7

Early Voting Stats – 24 Million People have already voted, according to GMU’s Michael McDonald – http://bit.ly/QbW90X

Registered Democrats have cast the most votes in Florida, Nevada, Iowa and North Carolina. Registered Republicans have cast the most early votes in Colorado.

Independents more than make up the difference in every swing state with early voting and public party ID.

50 Percent of active Nevada voters have already voted. http://bit.ly/SlVN3U

Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report are tracking the Virginia early vote. Down 12 percent more in Obama localities than Bush localities, which doesn’t indicate someone or another is ahead, he said, but it could be a good barometer of excitement for Republicans vs. excitement for Democrats. http://bit.ly/Rzy417

More Langer – 62 percent of Romney’s supporters are very enthusiastic, compared with no more than 50 percent of Kerry’s in ’04: http://abcn.ws/RzoM5d  

Paul Ryan Smells Victory, Or Is It Cow Manurehttp://abcn.ws/YxXQ9h

Prognosticate This! – Obama has a 96 – 99 Percent chance of winning according to Princeton’s electoral college probability guy, Sam Wang. http://election.princeton.edu/

Obama got an 80.9 percent chance of winning according to Nate Silver today.

But Karl Rove, anticipating a squeaker, painted a pretty dismal picture for President Obama and using Gallup data to suggest drastically increased GOP turnout, particularly in Ohio. http://on.wsj.com/PM4TuV

Barack Obama’s Evolution on Climate Change: A Brief History-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s endorsement of President Obama Thursday put the spotlight on an issue that has been largely absent from this presidential campaign and mainstream political discourse for nearly two years: climate change.http://abcn.ws/TqjPcG (Abby Phillip)

Jobs Report: The Good and the Bad-Today’s jobs report showed persistent but modest improvement in the American economy, and broad-based gains in just about every industry except the government.  The U.S. economy added an average of only 67,000 jobs a month in the second quarter but has added an average of 170,000 the past three months.http://abcn.ws/Tzus1r (Zunaira Zaki)

Obama Says October Jobs Report Shows ‘Real Progress’-President Obama touted this morning’s October jobs report as “real progress,” but stressed he’s got “more work to do” as he made an impassioned plea for the support of voters in this pivotal battleground state.http://abcn.ws/TqminB (Mary Bruce)

Obama Says Romney Trying to ‘Scare Up Some Votes’ in Ohio-Leading or tied in most Ohio polls, President Obama today accused rival Mitt Romney of attempting to “scare up some votes” in the state’s auto country with a series of misleading TV ads airing just days before voters cast their final ballots.http://abcn.ws/TiKVER (Devin Dwyer)

Congressional Candidates — As Long As He or She Wants to Break DC Gridlock-“I’ve said I will work with anybody of any party to move this country forward,” President Obama told a crowd of 2,800 this morning in Hilliard, Ohio. “If you want to break the gridlock in Congress, you’ll vote for leaders who feel the same way whether they’re Democrat, Republican or independent.” http://abcn.ws/Wg4Wlb  (Jake Tapper)

Battleground Colorado: Will Romney or Obama Claim the Wild West?-A growing Hispanic population and a slate of recent Democratic successes bode well for President Obama in this westward battleground, but a high unemployment rate presents a significant challenge. http://abcn.ws/YvTKOO (Elizabeth Hartfield)

2012 Could Be the GOP’s Year in Wisconsin-Wisconsin has generally been a fairly reliable blue state. No Republican presidential candidate has carried Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan in 1984. But the GOP is hoping that 2012 will be the year that reverses the trend, and a recent wave of Republican success in the Badger State has given them hope. http://abcn.ws/RzmAJ8 (Elizabeth Hartfield)

Biden Pushes Early Voting on ‘Late Show With David Letterman’-Vice President Joe Biden hit the late-night comedy scene Thursday night by reading his “Top 10″ list of reasons to vote early on the “Late Show with David Letterman,” pushing voters to head to the polls ahead of Election Day.http://abcn.ws/PqkTRJ (Arlette Saenz)

SHOWS:
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