Politics » Polls http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics The latest Politics news and blog posts from ABC News contributors and bloggers including Jake Tapper, George Stephanopoulos and more. Tue, 02 Jul 2013 12:14:30 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 Clinton, Obama Slip in Popularity; Uncertainty About Rubio Stays High http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/06/clinton-obama-slip-in-popularity-uncertainty-about-rubio-stays-high/ http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/06/clinton-obama-slip-in-popularity-uncertainty-about-rubio-stays-high/#comments Wed, 26 Jun 2013 11:00:04 +0000 Greg Holyk http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/?p=850521 ap obama clinton thailand lt 121118 wblog Clinton, Obama Slip in Popularity; Uncertainty About Rubio Stays High

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

Hillary Clinton has lost some ground in personal favorability this year, but continues to outpace both Barack Obama and, by a wide margin, Marco Rubio – like Clinton, a possible successor to Obama – in this basic measure of public popularity.

Six in 10 Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll see Clinton favorably, down 6 percentage points from her career high in January. Obama’s seen favorably by 53 percent, down 7 points from January and back to his pre-re-election level across most of 2012.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

Rubio, a Republican U.S. senator from Florida involved in the immigration reform effort, is far less known on the national stage. Half of Americans express no opinion of him at all, similar to its level last August, when he first was being mooted as a possible presidential candidate. The rest divide evenly on Rubio in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.

The single-digit comedowns for Obama and Clinton are unsurprising. Since his re-election, the president’s waded into contentious policy areas such as gun control and immigration, while dealing with the Internal Revenue Service and National Security Administration controversies. Obama’s job approval likewise is off from his post-election high in ABC/Post polls.

Clinton, for her part, has stepped away from her popular role as secretary of state and may be seen in an increasingly partisan light given wide discussion of her possible candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016. Last week she said she hopes to see a woman president, and, even without being a formal candidate, was endorsed by Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri). A campaign fundraising committee has been created to support Clinton (without her endorsement), as has one to oppose her.

GROUPS – Indicating increased partisanship, Clinton’s popularity since January has dropped by 10 points among Republicans and among “somewhat” conservative Americans; she’s also lost 9 points among whites, 10 points among seniors and 11 points among college graduates.

Obama, on the other hand, has lost ground disproportionately among some key Democratic-leaning groups, down 12 points in favorability among liberals, 10 points among those without a college degree, and 9 points each among nonwhites and people with household incomes less than $50,000 a year. His favorable rating also is down 11 points among independents, dipping just below the halfway mark.

While Rubio retains a broad recognition deficit, partisan divisions about him have lessened from last August, with negative views among Democrats down by 13 points and positive views among Republicans down by 11 points. His support for immigration reform – a cause more popular among Democrats than among Republicans – may be a factor.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone June 19-23, 2013, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,010 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.

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Most Back NSA Surveillance Efforts – But Also Seek Congressional Hearings http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/06/most-back-nsa-surveillance-efforts-but-also-seek-congressional-hearings/ http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/06/most-back-nsa-surveillance-efforts-but-also-seek-congressional-hearings/#comments Wed, 19 Jun 2013 11:00:53 +0000 Gary Langer http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/?p=849689 ap nsa snowden tk 130610 wblog Most Back NSA Surveillance Efforts   But Also Seek Congressional Hearings

Patrick Semansky; The Guardian, Glenn Greenwald and Laura Poitras/AP Photo

Most Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll support telephone and internet surveillance by the National Security Administration, but two-thirds also favor congressional hearings on the subject – indicating broad interest in more information about these activities.

The public by 58-39 percent supports the NSA collecting “extensive records of phone calls, as well as internet data related to specific investigations, to try to identify possible terrorist threats.” Support for the program is far higher among Democrats and liberals than among Republicans and strong conservatives, reversing Bush-era political divisions on issues of privacy vs. security.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

At the same time, in a strikingly nonpartisan result, 65 percent of Americans favor congressional hearings on the subject – a view expressed by more than six in 10 Democrats, Republicans and independents alike, as well as by virtually equal numbers across the ideological spectrum.

The survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds a close division in attitudes on whether or not to prosecute Edward Snowden, the former government contractor who disclosed the classified NSA program. Forty-three percent support charging him with a crime; 48 percent oppose such charges.

These results reflect attitudes on a developing story; views could shift based on more information about the government’s activities or the potential impact of Snowden’s disclosures. That highlights the competing values at stake – the right to privacy from government intrusion vs. security from terrorism.

Attitudes on the NSA effort are similar to those measured in a Washington Post/Pew Research Center poll June 9, in which 56 percent called it acceptable for the agency to obtain “secret court orders to track telephone call records of millions of Americans in an effort to investigate terrorism.” Surveys asking other questions have had different results – 48 percent approval for “the government’s collection of telephone and internet data as part of anti-terrorism efforts” in a Pew/USA Today poll June 16; the same level of approval in a Time magazine poll June 11; and in a CBS News poll June 10, just 38 percent approval for “federal government agencies collecting phone records of ordinary Americans” in order to reduce the threat of terrorism.

A variety of factors could be at play, including exactly which records or data have been collected; how and why they were collected; as well as, speculatively, a distinction between asking about “support” vs. “approval” for a program that some may see as needed yet at the same time intrusive.

PARTISANS – As noted, results of this survey turn Bush-era partisan divisions on their head. In ABC/Post polls during the presidency of George W. Bush, Republicans and conservatives put far more emphasis on anti-terrorism investigations, even at the cost of privacy, while Democrats and independents were more apt to prioritize privacy rights.

The divisions were closer in a 2010 survey; now with the NSA controversy arising on the Obama administration’s watch, the tables are turned: Seventy-three percent of Democrats and 67 percent of liberals in this survey support the NSA program; that declines to 49 percent of Republicans (and about as many independents, 51 percent) and just 46 percent of those who call themselves “very” conservative. (Support is much higher, 62 percent, among “somewhat” conservatives, similar to its level among political moderates.)

In line these results, the survey also finds substantially more support for the NSA program among nonwhites, who are more apt to be Democrats, than among whites, 68 vs. 53 percent. And whites are more apt than nonwhites to favor hearings, 70 vs. 57 percent.

Opposition to charging Snowden with a crime peaks among very conservatives, at 56 percent, and adults who (like Snowden himself) are younger than 30. Fifty-eight percent in this group prefer not to see him charged.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone June 12-16, 2013, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,017 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.

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Public Preferences Differ on Top SCOTUS Cases http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/06/public-preferences-differ-on-top-scotus-cases/ http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/06/public-preferences-differ-on-top-scotus-cases/#comments Wed, 12 Jun 2013 04:01:09 +0000 Gary Langer http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/?p=849006 ap scotus gay marriage mi 130327 wblog Public Preferences Differ on Top SCOTUS Cases

Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo

A majority is holding fast in support for gay marriage, and even more Americans say legally married gays should receive full federal benefits. But opinions shift on another social and legal issue, with three-quarters – including more than seven in 10 whites and nonwhites alike – opposed to consideration of applicants’ race in college admissions.

All three issues tested in this ABC News/Washington Post poll are before the U.S. Supreme Court, with potentially landmark rulings expected by month’s end.

See PDF with full results and tables here.

Attitudes on gay marriage extend the dramatic shift in recent years toward greater support for gay rights. On affirmative action, the results indicate continued resistance among many Americans to race-based preferences.

On the former, 57 percent of Americans support allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally, and 63 percent say the federal government should give the same benefits to legally married gays that it gives to other married couples. On the latter, just 22 percent support allowing universities to consider applicants’ race as a factor in deciding which students to admit; 76 percent are opposed.

Criticism of affirmative action – particularly the consideration of race in college admissions – has been as high or higher in previous polls. In a Gallup/CNN/USA Today survey in 2001, for instance, 87 percent said colleges should not be allowed to consider race as a factor in student admission decisions, vs. 76 percent in this poll.

Perhaps surprisingly, this survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds little in the way of racial or ethnic differences on the question. Seventy-nine percent of whites oppose consideration of race in college admissions, as do 71 percent of nonwhites, including 78 percent of blacks and 68 percent of Hispanics. In the 2001 Gallup poll, opposition was similar to its level now among nonwhites, 74 percent, while higher among whites, 90 percent.

Even political liberals in this survey oppose the practice, by a 2-1 margin.

Other research has found varying views on efforts to assist disadvantaged groups in areas such as college admissions, hiring and promotions, depending on the nature of the effort. Previous ABC News polls, for example, have found greater support for programs that give assistance but not preference, or that are based on income rather than race.

Results on legalizing gay marriage are consistent with previous recent surveys, with far less support among conservatives, Republicans and older adults than among others. Still, federal benefits for legally married gay couples win more support in these groups, as well as overall. For example, while just 33 percent of Republicans support gay marriage, 42 percent support equal benefits for legally married gays. The shift is similar among conservatives.

On the other side of the spectrum, support for gay rights soars, as is customary, among young adults; three-quarters support gay marriage and equal benefits alike.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone June 5-9, 2013, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,007 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.

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Tech Giants Hold the Fort in Basic Public Popularity http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/06/tech-giants-hold-the-fort-in-basic-public-popularity/ http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/06/tech-giants-hold-the-fort-in-basic-public-popularity/#comments Wed, 05 Jun 2013 11:00:04 +0000 Gary Langer http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/?p=848328 Belying the tech market’s image of ever-shifting consumer allegiances, three icons of the sector are displaying a notable attribute: Stability in their basic popularity.

Google, Apple and Facebook, which held toweringly positive public profiles in an ABC News/Washington Post poll 14 months ago, still hold them today. That’s especially impressive for Apple, which has been hammered recently from Wall Street to Washington.

See PDF with full results and charts here.

Google remains atop the pack: Eighty-three percent of Americans express a favorable opinion of the search, app, smartphone and gizmo giant, essentially the same as last year’s 82 percent. In a slight sign of erosion, 48 percent now see it “strongly” favorably, down 5 points. But those still are extraordinary ratings.

Seventy-two percent rate Apple favorably in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates – again basically unchanged from last year, 74 percent. That’s remarkable given its year: Apple’s stock price is 36 percent off its peak in September. It’s lost share in smartphones, tablets and apps alike; slowed product launches; taken heat from Congress for its tax-avoidance efforts; and just went on trial for alleged price-fixing on e-books.

Lastly there’s Facebook, stable in its “likes.” Sixty percent see the social media company favorably, vs. 58 percent in April 2012. That’s despite its own travails – a problematic IPO, a turbulent but ultimately flat stock performance, controversy about its privacy policies and debate on the effectiveness of its efforts to curb hate speech.

Still, while essentially steady, Facebook also has kept its detractors: Three in 10 adults see it unfavorably overall, about twice the negatives of Apple and three times those of Google.

AGE GROUPS – In one sign of potential fallout, Apple’s popularity has slipped slightly among young adults, with a favorable rating among 18- to 29-year-olds of 71 percent now, vs. 81 percent a little more than year ago. While it made that back among other age groups, a quarter of young adults now see Apple unfavorably, higher than its negative rating among their elders.

Google, for its part, is seen favorably by 93 percent of under-30s, and a vast 72 percent in this age group see the company “strongly” favorably, much higher than in other age categories. As for Facebook, its appeal peaks among under-40s, not just under-30s.

At the other end of age spectrum, all the tech giants are weakest among seniors, in large part simply because they’re less likely to use the internet in the first place. Twenty-two percent of seniors have no opinion of Google at all, vs. single digits in other age groups. Similarly, about a quarter of seniors have no opinion of Apple or Facebook.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone May 29-June 2, 2013, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,007 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.

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Budget Cuts Get Personal; Those Who Are Hurt, Holler http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/budget-cuts-get-personal-those-who-are-hurt-holler/ http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/budget-cuts-get-personal-those-who-are-hurt-holler/#comments Fri, 24 May 2013 10:00:23 +0000 Gary Langer http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/?p=847329 The federal budget sequester may be dampening a rise in economic optimism: Nearly four in 10 Americans now say sequestration has hurt them personally, up substantially since it began in March – and they’re far less sanguine than others about the economy’s prospects overall.

Thirty-seven percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say they’ve been negatively impacted by the budget cuts, up from 25 percent in March. As previously, about half of those affected say the harm has been “major.”

See PDF with full results and charts here.

Those who are hurt, holler. Among people who report no personal impact of the sequester, 66 percent say economic recovery is under way, and six in 10 are optimistic about the economy’s prospects in the year ahead. Among those who report major harm from the cuts, by contrast, just 36 percent see recovery, and optimism drops to 40 percent.

As reported earlier this week, optimism about the economy is advancing; 56 percent of Americans now say it’s begun to recover, up by 20 percentage points in the past year and a half to the most since ABC and the Post first asked the question in late 2009. Results on the sequester suggest that could be better still had the cuts not taken effect.

More Americans continue to disapprove than approve of sequestration, now by 56-35 percent – again, a view influenced by experience of the cuts. Eight in 10 of those who report serious harm oppose the cuts, as do about two-thirds of those slightly harmed. But the majority, which has felt no impacts, divides exactly evenly – 46 percent favor the cuts, vs. 46 percent opposed.

Further, this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds that 39 percent overall “strongly” disapprove of the cuts – but that soars to 66 percent of those who say they’ve been harmed in a major way. (Just 16 percent overall strongly approve.)

Experience of the cuts even trumps partisanship and ideology: Among Republicans, conservatives and Tea Party supporters who’ve been harmed by the cuts, most oppose them. Support is far higher among those in these groups who haven’t felt an impact of sequestration.

GROUPS – Perhaps surprisingly, given the partisan nature of the debate, views of the cuts don’t divide sharply along party lines. Majorities of Democrats and Republicans alike oppose the cuts – 59 and 54 percent, respectively – as do a similar 58 percent of independents.

One reason: Republicans are 14 points more apt than Democrats to say they’ve been harmed by the sequester. And among Republicans who’ve been hurt by the cuts, 68 percent disapprove of them. Among those unhurt, disapproval drops to 42 percent.

Ideology has an effect: Forty-seven percent of “very” conservative Americans approve of the cuts, as do 42 percent of those who call themselves “somewhat” conservative. It’s 36 percent among moderates and 24 percent among liberals. But again, impacts of the cuts are a bigger factor in views on the issue. Among conservatives hurt by the cuts, 65 percent disapprove of them; among those unhurt, just 34 percent disapprove.

Similarly, 66 percent of Tea Party supporters who’ve been damaged by the cuts disapprove, vs. 44 percent of those who report no personal impact.

While Barack Obama has been a sharp critic of sequestration, he only runs 43-38 percent against the Republicans in Congress in trust to handle the budget deficit, not a significant difference. He’s done much better on the issue, but also worse; the tables were turned as recently as two years ago, when Obama trailed the GOP in trust to handle the deficit by 8 points.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone May 16-19, 2013, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including design effect. Partisan divisions are 33-22-38 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.

Analysis by Dana Kraushar and Gary Langer.

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Support for Legal Status Holds; So Do Sizable Partisan Divisions http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/support-for-legal-status-holds-so-do-sizable-partisan-divisions/ http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/support-for-legal-status-holds-so-do-sizable-partisan-divisions/#comments Thu, 23 May 2013 11:00:18 +0000 Greg Holyk http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/?p=847120 Nearly six in 10 Americans back a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants, with narrow preference for prompt action on the issue. Partisan divisions are sharp, a factor likely to be reflected in the full Senate debate ahead.

Overall, 58 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll support providing a way for undocumented immigrants to remain in the country legally “if they pay a fine and meet other requirements,” vs. 38 percent opposed. That’s similar to a 62-34 percent split last month.

See PDF with full results and charts here.

A bare majority, 51 percent, also says Congress should pass a legal status law now, either alone or along with stricter border control. Forty-five percent instead say border control should come first – as preferred by some Republicans in Congress – or oppose action on either step.

Legal status and tighter border control both are included in a package approved Tuesday night by the Senate Judiciary Committee, with support from three of its eight Republican members and all 10 Democrats. Reflecting that outcome, this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds that 70 percent of Democrats support a path to legal status, as do 57 percent of independents – dropping to 42 percent of Republicans.

Further, 52 percent of Republicans say Congress should pass border control first, or not act on either element of immigration reform. Forty-seven percent of independents share that view; it declines to 35 percent among Democrats.

All else equal, potential effects of the issue in 2014 congressional races look like a wash. People who oppose a path to legal status are more likely than its supporters to call the issue a red line in their vote preference – but there are fewer of them, equalizing the overall effect. (Of course, all else in fact is not equal, given factors including the demographic and political makeup of congressional districts; turnout, including in primaries; the quality of opposing candidates; and the potential pull of other issues.)

Among groups, apart from partisanship, support for a path to legal status peaks among college post-graduates (72 percent), liberals (70 percent), Westerners (69 percent), nonwhites (68 percent) and 18- to 39-year olds (65 percent).

GUN CONTROL – On another contentious issue, this poll finds extensive unhappiness with the Senate’s recent rejection of expanded background checks for gun purchasers; 67 percent say it was the wrong thing to do, with 58 percent feeling that way “strongly.” That’s not unexpected, since 86 percent favored expanded background checks in an ABC/Post poll in March.

Notably, even among people in gun-owning households, 62 percent say it was wrong for the Senate to reject extending background checks to cover online and gun-show purchases.

Forty-one Republican senators and five Democrats voted against the measure. Criticism in this survey is focused on the GOP: Among Americans who favored the measure, 64 percent chiefly blame its rejection on opposition led by congressional Republicans, vs. 17 percent who mainly blame President Obama for failing to secure the needed votes.

But backlash against the National Rifle Association, a prime opponent of the law, is muted. Forty-four percent of Americans say the NRA has too much influence over gun laws; that’s up by 6 points from January, but to a level it’s seen before.

Compared with immigration reform, the background-check issue appears to pose clearer electoral risk. Among the many critics of the Senate action, 55 percent say they could not support a candidate who voted against expanded background checks. It’s a red line for fewer on the other side of the issue, 46 percent, and, as noted, there are many fewer of them.

MIDTERMS – While it’s far too early to handicap the 2014 election in any serious way, registered voters currently favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican in their congressional district by 48-40 percent, the largest Democratic midterm advantage since 2006. The party saw steep losses in the 2010 midterms.

The result almost entirely reflects a current Democratic advantage in partisan affiliation. Among registered voters in this survey, 33 percent identify themselves as Democrats, 22 percent as Republicans; most of the rest are independents, and they split evenly in their 2014 preference. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6 points in the 2012 presidential election and by 7 points in 2008, but they were even in the last two midterms – meaning the Democratic advantage holds only if their midterm turnout improves dramatically.

Finally, similar to the Democratic advantage in 2014 preferences, Obama leads the Republicans in Congress by 8 points in trust to handle immigration issues, 45-37 percent. The two, though, are essentially even in trust to handle gun control, 42-41 percent, and on both, the president’s own approval ratings are tepid – 46 percent on immigration, 44 percent on gun control.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone May 16-19, 2013, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including design effect. Partisan divisions are 33-22-38 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.

By Gregory Holyk and Gary Langer.

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Public Sharply Critical on IRS, Benghazi; But Economy Cuts Obama Some Slack http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/public-sharply-critical-on-irs-benghazi-but-economy-cuts-obama-some-slack/ http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/public-sharply-critical-on-irs-benghazi-but-economy-cuts-obama-some-slack/#comments Tue, 21 May 2013 04:01:23 +0000 Gary Langer http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/?p=846910 Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll sharply reject special scrutiny of conservative groups by the Internal Revenue Service, suspect an administration cover-up of the Benghazi incident and express substantial distrust of the federal government more generally.

Yet the national survey also finds no backlash against Barack Obama, at least at this point. His job approval rating is stable, albeit at a tepid 51 percent; he’s aided by accelerating economic optimism as well as by comparison with the much less-popular Republicans in Congress.

See PDF with full results and charts here.

Longer-term impacts of contentious current issues remain to be seen, but there’s potential for significant damage to the administration. Americans by a vast 74-20 percent see the IRS’ behavior as inappropriate, with most feeling that way strongly – and 56 percent see it as a deliberate attempt to harass conservative organizations, not a mere administrative error.

The public divides on whether or not the administration is honestly disclosing what it knows about the IRS’ actions; 45 percent suspect a cover-up, 42 percent instead see full transparency. And more than a third overall in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, think these actions not only are inappropriate, but illegal.

Further, on the attack on the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya, last fall, suspicions of a cover-up rise to a majority, 55 percent. And in this case only a third of Americans are persuaded that the Obama administration is disclosing honestly what it knows about what occurred.

Beyond this negative view of the administration’s disclosure on Benghazi, Americans divide evenly on whether Republican criticisms on the issue reflect legitimate concerns or “political posturing.” But Hillary Clinton’s reputation thus far is largely intact: Despite criticisms of her handling of the incident, 62 percent approve of her work as secretary of state overall, down a bit from about six months ago but still a strong rating.

DISTRUST – Another result underscores the level of general distrust of the federal government. Americans by 54-38 percent say they think the government is doing more to threaten the rights of average Americans than to protect those rights. That’s not IRS-specific, however, since it was about as high in a similar Pew Research question in January.

There’s a high level of partisanship in suspicion of the government: Seventy-one percent of Republicans see it more as threatening than as protecting their rights, while just 31 percent of Democrats agree. But the balance is tipped by political independents, among whom a clear majority (61 percent) sees the government more as a threat than a source of protection.

Beyond politics, there’s an apparent economic element to trust in government, suggesting a perceived right to economic opportunity. People who see or expect economic recovery are much more likely than economic pessimists also to think that the government is protecting rather than threatening most people’s rights – regardless of their political or ideological preferences.

Beyond a sense of general distrust, there’s broad public concern about press freedoms, an issue related to federal prosecutors obtaining Associated Press telephone records in an effort to find the source of classified information about terrorism that was leaked to the news agency. Americans by 69-29 percent in this poll say they’re concerned that in trying to protect classified information the federal government will improperly intrude on the freedom of the press.

Specific to the AP issue, however, the public by 52-33 percent says prosecutors were justified in obtaining phone records via a court order, with results, in this case, similar across partisan and ideological lines. That may be because the leak related to terrorism, an issue on which the public tends to side with investigative efforts over privacy rights. Further, it’s not clear if the administration used a court order or instead a grand jury subpoena, which is not technically a court order but has a similar effect. Specifics on this issue, as well as other particulars of the case as they become known, could influence public attitudes.

OBAMA/ECONOMY – None of these issues appears to have impacted views of the president’s job performance; his approval rating, now 51 percent, has been essentially unchanged after slipping in March from a brief post-election foray into the mid-50s. An open question, though, is whether the president may have gained ground had these controversies not arisen.

In any case, strong sentiment about the president now divides evenly, after tilting slightly more negative in March and April. Moreover, the partisan gap in views of his performance, while still vast, is its smallest since December 2011, and Obama has majority approval among men for the first time since December 2010. Both may reflect the effects of an improving economy.

On that score, 56 percent of Americans now say the economy is beginning to recover, up by a dramatic 20 percentage points in the past year and a half, to the most since ABC and the Post first asked the question in late 2009. The change is broadly based, but strongest among financially better-off adults.

Additionally, more than half, 53 percent, now say they’re optimistic about the economy’s prospects in the year ahead, a majority for the first time in four years. (A steadier majority, two-thirds, expresses optimism about their own finances.)

These economic views, as noted, are closely related to political sentiment; Obama’s rating is far higher among those who see economic gains.

None of this means the economy’s in great shakes; Americans divide evenly, 48-48 percent, in approval or disapproval of how Obama’s handled it overall, with more “strongly” negative views than strongly positive ones. But that’s still one of his best scores on the economy since mid-2009. A little more than a year ago, by contrast, more disapproved than approved by a 21-point margin.

THE GOP – Obama also benefits from a comparative advantage vs. the Republicans in Congress. Regardless of his own rating on the economy, he leads the GOP in trust to handle it by 46-37 percent. That’s fluctuated; it’s a bit better for the president now than in March, but down from his wider 18-point advantage on the economy during his post-election bump in December.

Obama has a larger advantage in a more general question: Fifty-one percent of Americans say he is “mainly concentrating on things that are important to you personally.” That’s 8 points more than say the same about the Democrats in Congress – and 18 points more than say so about the Republicans.

Notably, Obama also is well ahead of his predecessor. At about this point in George W. Bush’s second term just 41 percent said he was focused on issues important to them, 10 points weaker than Obama’s score. Similarly, at that point 55 percent said Bush had done more to divide than to unite the country; 45 percent say the same about Obama now, with more undecided.

TEA TIME – In one division of interest, this poll finds a continued roughly even split in views of the Tea Party political movement, with 40 percent of adults saying they support it overall, 43 percent opposed. “Strong” support for the movement, at 10 percent, is numerically its lowest on record, and just about half the level of strong opposition, 22 percent.

Sizable majorities of Tea Party supporters and opponents alike say it was inappropriate for the IRS to single out conservative groups for extra scrutiny on their applications for tax-exempt status. At the same time, Tea Party aficionados are much more apt than its critics to think the IRS’ actions constituted intentional harassment, were illegal and are the subject of an attempted cover-up by the Obama administration.

ONWARD AND (POLITICALLY) DOWNWARD? – This survey, in sum, finds items for individuals across the political spectrum to enjoy, and others for them to worry about. After years in the tank, views on the economy unabashedly are improving, a positive result any way you slice it. That’s helping to support the president’s ratings, as are his comparisons to the long-lagging GOP. But the IRS issue, in particular, looks to pose a real risk to the administration, given the depth and breadth of criticism about it.

Most threatening, perhaps – to both sides of the aisle – is the public’s political mood more broadly. Views of the government as a threat ebb and flow, but are not new; as long ago as 1995, 55 percent in a Los Angeles Times poll said the government’s activities threatened their constitutional rights. But the return to that sentiment is a clear negative.

There are others: Even with improving economic views, 57 percent in this poll say the country continues to head “seriously off on the wrong track.” And while a majority now expresses economic optimism, when Americans are asked the likelihood that Obama and the Republicans will work together in the year ahead, the response is pessimistic by a resounding 2-1 margin.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone May 16-19, 2013, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including design effect. Partisan divisions are 33-22-38 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.

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Poll Finds Majority Acceptance of Gays From the B-ball Court to the Boy Scouts http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/poll-finds-majority-acceptance-of-gays-from-the-b-ball-court-to-the-boy-scouts/ http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/poll-finds-majority-acceptance-of-gays-from-the-b-ball-court-to-the-boy-scouts/#comments Thu, 09 May 2013 04:01:44 +0000 Gary Langer http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/?p=845432 abc jason collin george stephanopoulos interview 2 130429 wblog Poll Finds Majority Acceptance of Gays From the B ball Court to the Boy Scouts

Eric McCandless/ABC

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds further public acceptance of gay rights in the United States, in areas ranging from the professional basketball court to the Boy Scouts, as well as the institution of marriage.

Nearly seven in 10 Americans support the decision by professional basketball player Jason Collins to disclose publicly that he’s gay, the survey finds. Most support the Boy Scouts of America’s plan to admit gay scouts, while opposing its continued ban on gay adults. And 55 percent say gays and lesbians should be allowed to marry legally.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

While partisan and ideological differences on each of these are large, centrist groups – e.g., independents and moderates – tilt the balance, underscoring a dramatic shift in favor of gay rights that’s accelerated in recent years.

STRENGTH OF SENTIMENT – Backing is widest and deepest for Collins, with 68 percent of Americans saying they support the NBA center’s decision to announce his sexual orientation. Those who “strongly” support his step outnumber his strong critics by a 3-1 margin.

A substantial 63 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, also support the Boy Scouts’ plan to begin admitting gay scouts younger than 18, while 56 percent oppose its intention to continue to ban gay adults. Again strength of sentiment favors gay rights, by 16- and 12-point margins, respectively. Both policies go to a vote of the group’s governing council, meeting the week of May 20 in Grapevine, Texas.

Some of these views even overcome political sentiment to some degree. Majorities of Republicans and conservatives, 52 and 54 percent, respectively, support Collins’ step, and 53 percent of Republicans support admitting gay scouts. These groups are much less apt to support admitting gay scout leaders or legalizing gay marriage.

Support’s far higher in other groups. Nearly three-quarters of moderates and independents support Collins, as do more than eight in 10 Democrats and liberals. Than two-thirds or more in each of these groups favor admitting gay scouts, and six in 10 or more oppose continuing to ban gay adults from scouting.

Support for gay marriage, for its part, reaches six in 10 or more in each of these groups, far higher than its support among conservatives and Republicans, 33 percent in both groups.

There are other differences among groups. Gender differences are especially wide on one issue: While men divide about evenly on the question of gay scout leaders, women oppose their exclusion by nearly 2-1. There’s a customary age gap on each item, with support for gay rights higher among younger adults; most strikingly, 76 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds favor gay marriage, while just 39 percent of seniors agree. And on all issues except scout leaders there’s a gap among education groups, with more-educated adults more supportive of gay rights.

ABC/Post polls since 2003 have asked if people think it “should be legal or illegal for gay and lesbian couples to get married”; the number saying this should be legal rose from a low of 32 percent (among registered voters) in 2004 to 58 percent this March. This poll asks people if they support or oppose “allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally.” Support is similar, 55 percent, while strength of sentiment divides more closely. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on two gay marriage cases next month.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone May 1-5, 2013, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,008 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.

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Seven in 10 Support the Death Penalty if Accused Boston Bomber is Convicted http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/seven-in-10-support-the-death-penalty-if-accused-boston-bomber-is-convicted/ http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/seven-in-10-support-the-death-penalty-if-accused-boston-bomber-is-convicted/#comments Wed, 01 May 2013 11:00:00 +0000 Gary Langer http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/?p=844684 ap dzhokhar tsarnaev jef 130419 wblog Seven in 10 Support the Death Penalty if Accused Boston Bomber is Convicted

Federal Bureau of Investigation/AP

Americans broadly agree on the trial and potential punishment for alleged Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev: Three-quarters support trying him in a non-military federal court, and seven in 10 say he should receive the death penalty if convicted.

While majorities across the board share these views in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, there are substantial partisan, ideological and racial differences. Support for trying Tsarnaev in federal court rather than a military tribunal ranges from 68 percent among “very” conservative adults to 83 percent of liberals. Republicans are 20 percentage points more apt than Democrats to favor the death penalty if he’s convicted, 84 vs. 64 percent. And support for capital punishment drops to 52 percent among African-Americans, vs. 75 percent of whites.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

Overall, 70 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, say the 19-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen should be put to death if found guilty – more than the number who’ve favored the death penalty in general in recent polls, a common result for particularly notorious crimes. For example, three-quarters supported the death sentence for Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh.

Differences among groups in views on Tsarnaev likely reflect political predispositions on these issues, rather than the specifics of his case. Republicans and conservatives are more apt in general to support military tribunals and the death penalty; Democrats and liberals, less so.

Still, notably in this poll, 59 percent not only support capital punishment in the event of a conviction, but feel that way “strongly,” vs. just 19 percent strongly opposed – an indication of the level of outrage the Boston bombing has evoked.

There’s again variation among groups, though; strong support for the death penalty reaches 70 percent among senior citizens, for instance, vs. 46 percent among young adults, aged 18-29.

In terms of the venue, the 74 percent overall who support a federal court trial rather than a military tribunal includes 50 percent who support it strongly, again far more than the number who express strong opposition, 13 percent.

ABC/Post polls in 2009 and 2010 found less support for the general proposition of trying terrorism suspects in federal court vs. a military tribunal, with preference for the federal courts ranging from 39 to 47 percent. Higher preference for the federal courts in this case could stem from different question wording, specifics of the Boston incident, a change in attitudes, or some combination of these.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone April 24-28, 2013, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.

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Most View Knox Sympathetically http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/04/most-view-knox-sympathetically/ http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/04/most-view-knox-sympathetically/#comments Tue, 30 Apr 2013 11:00:16 +0000 Gary Langer http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/?p=844614

Americans overwhelmingly know of Amanda Knox – and sympathize with her.

Seventy-two percent in an ABC News/Washington Post poll say they’ve heard or read about the American college student accused in the 2007 murder of her roommate in Italy. And 65 percent of them see her sympathetically, three times the number with a negative opinion.

See PDF with full results here.

Knox’s first news interview since her release, with ABC’s Diane Sawyer, airs April 30, the publication date of her book, “Waiting to Be Heard,” giving her side of the case in which she was first convicted of murder, then two years later acquitted,  only to have her acquittal reversed and a retrial ordered last month. Now a student in Washington state, she’s seen as unlikely to return to Italy for trial.

Perhaps surprisingly given her age (now 25), the case has drawn less attention among young adults than their elders; 46 percent of those under 30 say they’ve heard or read about it, vs. eight in 10 Americans age 40 and older. The saga also is better known to more-educated and higher-income adults. All these may reflect news consumption habits.

Among those who’ve heard or read about her case, sympathy for Knox reaches 73 percent among adults age 50 and older, compared with 56 percent of those younger than 50, a sharp difference. Seeing her “very” sympathetically also rises substantially among older adults, peaking at 47 percent among seniors, compared with 17 percent among those under 40.

One possible reason: Fifty and up is about the age at which an adult might have a daughter, or granddaughter, Knox’s age.

Finally, in perhaps a critical reflection on her Italian prosecutors, just 22 percent of Americans describe themselves as unsympathetic toward Knox, highest among less-educated adults.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone April 11-14, 2013, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points for the full sample, including design effect.

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