Dec 10, 2007 10:31am

Shuttle ‘Oversold’–Even According to Astronauts

Sunday’s month-long delay of the launch of Atlantis was not that big a deal in itself, but it could become one if they can’t get a handle on those troublesome Engine Cut-Off Sensors.  They’ve been a problem on four of the last seven launches. NASA only has to get through thirteen more launches before it retires the shuttles in the middle of 2010.  This year it’s managed all of three.  So perhaps it shouldn’t be that surprising to read what Stan Love, one of the spacewalking astronauts on the current crew, had to say when we asked him how the space shuttle ought to go down in history. "It will be remembered as–dare I say it–oversold," he said in a preflight interview with Gina Sunseri of our staff. "To begin with, they thought we would be flying 50 flights a year; we are not even close to that. "It will be remembered as too expensive to support. That’s the reason why we can’t keep flying it forever. However, when it’s gone, we will be begging to get it back, because for all of it’s faults, for all of the advertising that was done to get it flying, the enormous cost of keeping it flying, it is probably the most capable machine we will have for a hundred years.  "The shuttle replacement will be smaller, it will be less expensive to operate, it will be further from its margins and safer to operate, it will be very flexible, but it will not be able to do what the shuttle does.    "It is not going to have a robot arm, it is not going to be able to conduct multiple spacewalks out of the same airlock, it is not going to be able to carry sixty thousand pounds in to orbit, if the orbital inclination is right. "The shuttle is amazing piece of machinery, I think it just may have been a little bit before its time." Dr. Love will not get in any trouble for having said that to us; it’s been NASA’s company line for several years now, ever since President Bush ordered that the shuttles be phased out.

User Comments

The shuttle wasn’t oversold – it was underdesigned because of budget cuts early on.

Posted by: John Kantor | December 10, 2007, 11:41 am 11:41 am

There will be a provate shuttle before there is another NASA one.

Posted by: Louis | December 10, 2007, 12:15 pm 12:15 pm

Ha! I’ve been saying this for years. There is one really worthless poster who will attack anybody who says the truth about costs, dependability, and safety.
Now it’s official. The shuttle will be remembered as an operational failure. I was right.
Now America can build the Aries and Orion launch systems and forget the lost years of 1976 until 2010 that was spent on the Shuttle, the most expensive and dangerous spacecraft ever made.
I was right. I told you so.

Posted by: Nixon-Now | December 10, 2007, 12:23 pm 12:23 pm

It’s past time that the shuttle be retired. It has done its job. Why hasn’t NASA already rolled out a new vehicle platform? It takes decades to design and build these things. Maybe we should give up on the space station and instead go back to enhancing the Titan series rockets for another trip to the moon and beyond. We have to get an atomic vehicle into space for long trips. We’ve squandered decades on the space station

Posted by: Bob | December 10, 2007, 12:42 pm 12:42 pm

Bob,
We HAD an atomic engine designed, built, and ready to test, a long time ago. If you’ll pardon the expression it never got off the launch pad because of flak from the Soviet Union about “testing nuclear devices in the atmosphere”. It was called Project Orion, and it could and should be revived immediately as it showed great promise. This is a technology that could get us to Mars, the asteroid belt, and beyond without taking the ghastly amount of time that a chemical engine would entail.

Posted by: Walker Evans | December 10, 2007, 2:17 pm 2:17 pm

Well as the movie said. “You know we’re sitting on four million pounds of fuel, one nuclear weapon and a thing that has 270,000 moving parts built by the lowest bidder. Makes you feel good, doesn’t it?” What do you expect of course maintenance costs will be astronomical!
And disasters will happen.
I mean the astronauts primary means of safety (heat tiles) are held on with GLUE!
I don’t care how high tech or amazing the stuff is it’s GLUE and several tiles have fallen off!

Posted by: Gene MCGILL | December 10, 2007, 2:37 pm 2:37 pm

Keep the Shuttle – Get rid of Republicans.

Posted by: FV, Tampa, FL | December 10, 2007, 2:43 pm 2:43 pm

The shuttle was and still is the most complex and sophisticated space paylod delivery vehicle ever concieved and it does this job very well. Yes, it is expensive to operate, but the fact that there is still no replacement for it speaks to the ingenuity and extreme engineering involved in the initial design and development. The shuttle is about as safe as you can make a machine that is tasked with flying 200 miles above Earth at over 17,000 miles per hour. The fact that we have only lost two is impressive if you ask me. The Apollo missions had fatalities as well, but were hailed as great acheivements. The Soviet space program lost over 160 members to failure. Also, the shuttle had another purpose and that was to show the world that the United States was number one when it came to space innovation and it worked. How much money and time did the former Soviet Union pump into the Buran ( the russian shuttle ) to only have it fly un-manned one time? They also saw the importance of having the payload lift capacity but could not afford to keep such a complex program alive. The space shuttle also has one very important function that nothing else can do. It can retreive orbiting satellites/modules and return them to Earth. This was the shuttles biggest selling point and it has been provent be the only machine on Earth that can do this. The shuttle program has led the way to many scientific improvements here on Earth and will continue to do so until something better comes along. I personally think that it will be awhile before anything is designed and flown that will even come close to the capabilities that the shuttle has.

Posted by: Shuttle supporter | December 10, 2007, 3:23 pm 3:23 pm

If you get rid of the republicans, then the democrats will really waste the money…. ON PEOPLE!!!! We learned alot from the shuttle. If it was properly funded, the next gen shuttle was being developed by the Skunkworks at Lockheed. I am also sure they said the same things about air travel. The shuttle is a stepping stone to the future. I actually believe, with some redesigning, that we could use a platform like that for the Mars Missions, or even just moon missions. I think time will tell.

Posted by: Peter | December 10, 2007, 4:27 pm 4:27 pm

Gimme a break…I’m appalled that after 25-30 years watching an orbiter land we get to watch a capsule go flop in the ocean just so a bunch of aging men can relive their boyhood fantasies by re-hashing 50 year old geezer-tech named after the god of war and the Hunter. And while we’re at it,lets resurrect the Model-T because cars today are too complex and too expensive to operate. When are we going to launch something off this planet that requires more technical prowess and elegance than a twelve-year old boy who’s just discovered he’s reached puberty. At least the space shuttle is/was a midpoint towards that evolution. And it’s 1970′s technology! 1970s!!! Why can’t we build, in 2007, the real sucessor to 1970s tech? To be fair, I know that NASA can’t get any money and they have to follow a president’s order for the “Vision for Space Exploration” (I can’t bring myself to put that man’s name in the same sentence with the word “vision”, especially as I suspect he doesn’t care a hill ‘o beans for our space program other than it not embarass him.),but when we have to go backwards to go forwards I wonder what we’ll sacrifice in the end. When the space shuttle is wasted because,even after 30 years, it’s too challenging and too “dangerous”, too 1970′s cutting-edge complex, then we as America deserve to resurrect and inherit superficial technologies and lack of development in our present space program.

Posted by: Liah | December 11, 2007, 12:34 am 12:34 am

I think they just need to think ahead, why not leave the robotic arm in space so they can use it instead of back and forth with the. The project cost to much so why not try to get the most out of it. They should go up with full loads and store stuff for the future. They just don’t do a good job planning the missions.

Posted by: Luke | December 11, 2007, 1:09 am 1:09 am

Shuttle Supporter,
NASA has nobody to blame but NASA for this debacle. Remember the cancelled Venture Star? That program was 95% done when it was cancelled in the early 2000s. It was found the variable nozzle rockets would never work with our present level of technology. Billion of dollars were gone, just gone.
The job of NASA is exploriation. The bottom line is the shuttle was never dependable. It could not even fly over four times this year. The tiles that keep the orbiter from burning up are held on by RTV that is just glorified bathroom tile calk. When an educated non-engineer would look objectively at the whole STS system it was crude and Rube Goldberg in conception.
If you ever watch a video of the launch of the shuttle you’ll see the “stack” of orbiter, fuel tank, and solid rocket boosters deflect up to 2 degrees. It’s amazing that the shuttle didn’t crash more.
I’m sorry the technology didn’t work out. But it’s just too complicated to work. We have been trying to make the shuttle system work since 1977. It’s been 30 years. The trend for it working correctly isn’t there. It’s time to take a step back, go back to something dependable, and get back to work: real space exploration.
Flying the Shuttle is not space exploration. The US Army does not exist to carry the M-16. The shuttle supporters never figured that fact out. And a very nasty poster owes me a personal apology.

Posted by: Nixon-Now | December 11, 2007, 9:19 am 9:19 am

Nixon,
So you are saying that NASA has a say in what is and is not cancelled in the space exploration budget? I always thought that it was Congress. The Venture Star would have worked with a little more time invested in research and development. The shuttle was initially concieved in 1972, but had to wait 9 years to actually fly. This was becuase it took that long to develop alot of the technology to allow such a big bird to come home from a space mission. The tiles that are held on with glue. Those tiles are 98 percent air. Nothing else will hold them on. There is no metal strong AND light enough to withstand the heat of re-entry.
I am an Engineer and I have watched probably every shuttle launch and return that has ever aired. Getting to space is a very complex task, but is simple compared to actually coming back home. That deflection you see while watching the shuttle before a launch is approximately 3 million pounds of thrust pushing the shuttle until the SRB’s are fired. You are right, the shuttle is not space exploration, but the Hubble telescope and the ISS are. They both have increased the knowledge of humans about space beyond what anybody dreamed possible 100 years ago. How did the Hubble and the space station get there? Oh yea, they were both lifted into space onboard the space shuttle and both have been serviced/repaired by, yep, you guessed it, that very same shuttle. Of course flying the shuttle is not space exploration. It provides the means to explore space much the same way your car provides the means for you to work and explore your surroundings.

Posted by: Shuttle supporter | December 11, 2007, 10:48 am 10:48 am

Liah: In lamenting “1970s technology,” you write as if newer and better technologies for space vehicles came along in an automatic, steady stream, and it’s just a matter of taking advantage of them.
Not so; most of the core technologies involved simply aren’t pushed that hard in any other field. No other industry *needs* a higher-performance rocket engine, or a stronger/lighter foam for the external tank, or tougher low-maintenance thermal protection for the orbiter, or [a dozen others] enough to pay for the R&D. They don’t simply show up of themselves.
The only big exception is avionics, which has benefited from general progress in digital circuitry (and in fact the Shuttle’s avionics have been upgraded several times). Other than that, we’ll be using “1970s technology” until we choose to pay for something better.

Posted by: Monte Davis | December 11, 2007, 11:53 am 11:53 am

Shuttle Supporter,
I suspect you were the defender who used to post at the other sites defending the shuttle against all detractors.
Well, I work as a software development programmer leader and can read a PERT and other management charts as well as any engineer. It’s my job. Also, my degree is in accounting and my masters is in history.
Venture Star program blew it. There was no way the adjustable rocket engines were working with consistent reliability. There is a point where your managers had to appear before the House subcommittee and say the truth on their analysis. You’re lucky. In private business you’d be fired.
I like the shuttle hardware. I think the engines are extremely efficient. The SRBs would be extremely safe if they were not subject to an off centerline deflection on the initial ignition of the Shuttle Stack. I think the Ares heavy launch rocket will rival the Saturn V.
I view the shuttle program as something like the huge but fragile large aircraft of World War One. They were never practicable. It was not until the 1930s era that aircraft became reliable, safe, and profitable. The shuttle could never do two of the former and – since it was government funded – had no reason to ever be cost effective.
I told you that history would judge the Shuttles harshly. I was bitterly attacked. Yes, they were like the giant Russian Sikorsky bombers of World War One, big, beautiful, and way ahead of their time.
I’m one of those kids who grew up with Apollo. Then there was Skylab, still the biggest living module ever put into space (and why did NASA give up on the inflatable module?). Then the shuttle came along. NASA could not get the funding for it until they agreed to build the cargo bay large enough to hold a USAF Keyhole spy satellite. Your troubles in life started after that. Also, you stuck to your plans of just having the NASA being a large scale up of the canceled X-20 Dynasoar.
But all of that is gone now. You lost. I’m not happy about this either. But you got paid to properly manage a program. We could have had a dozen or so mid-sized space planes instead of a DC-9 sized cargo trucks. We’re back to the neo-Apollo because NASA was quickly trending to only being able to do two or three launches per year.
And history will judge you harshly.

Posted by: Nixon Now | December 11, 2007, 12:18 pm 12:18 pm

I guess history will dictate who lost this one. When the shuttle is still flying in 2015 because there will still not be a viable or economic way to perform these lifting tasks then we will see how critical the shuttle program was to space exploration.
As far as who I work for. I am a hardare Engineer for a private company and have yet to be fired for trying something in R&D. Actually, R&D is specifically used to test and, in alot of cases, fail before ever being implemented into a vaible product. The Venture Star blew it? Oh, you must be kidding. All the program did was prove that it was not viable NOW. Even failure has a learning curve. This will be my last post so I will leave everybody with this:
The Space shuttle – love it or hate it I really don’t care, but it supplied America with several things.
1) The ability to lift massive payloads into space.
2) Recover and return items from space, be it US or Russian satellites (remember the era that it was built), ISS modules, what have you.
3)Send more than just two or three astronauts into orbit. Unheard of before.
4) Prove the economic, industrial and tecnological might of the United States off to the rest of the world. Again, remember the timeframe.
While I respect the opinions of those who would oppose the program, I honestly feel that they don’t understand the significant positive impact that the program had on space exploration. Judge me how you like. I don’t care. How many shuttle components will be used on the next space vehicle? Man if you only knew. Here is a hint: They are “glued on”.

Posted by: Shuttle supporter | December 11, 2007, 2:24 pm 2:24 pm

Boy the pointy heads get really angry
about this topic.
I’m a NASA freak from the beginning.
Both sides have good/bad points to make
but we should not get personal or attack
each other.
Here’ my opinion, The X-15 the fastest aircraft ever to fly and could have been used to get a man into space was killed by the space race(politics) with the USSR. They used a rocket so we had to use a rocket. We won the race to the Moon and we could have been on
Mars with a manned crew in the 1980′s but Nixon(R) nearly killed NASA. Does anyone remember the NOVA launch vehicle? Politics vs. budgets vs. wars vs. public apathy. We are lucky we were able to get the Shuttle. Flawed yes, death trap…only when humans fail and schedules prevail(Reagan(R)wanted to talk to the Challenger astronauts during the State of the Union speech..which meant they had to do an early launch… more politics). The US has slipped on so many levels, if we lose the edge in space flight we will truely become a 2nd rate nation. Letting Bush decide to kill the shuttle(politics) is like a blind man picking out wallpaper. So what do we do? I want to see us back on the moon and then to Mars before I die(I’ll be 50 soon). What happen to the idea of using the SRB’s with some form of heavy lift vehicle in an unmanned config? A Trillion dollars to
Irag and to hell with our technological
superiority. Bad choices Bush. Politics AGAIN.
Sorry to ramble but it late in the day.
PS..Remember the Manned/Unmanned debate.
there’s another topic to get the bloggers arguing. Bye:-)

Posted by: rblackie | December 11, 2007, 4:42 pm 4:42 pm

Stan Love’s comments are exactly right. The shuttle was billed as an all purpose “space truck” that would make all other space vehicles obsolete. An appealing goal, but not one feasible with current technology. It has been the most expensive and deadly spacecraft ever produced. Having said that, its accomplishments are impressive. Could a Soyuz fix the Hubble? Could a Soyuz handle multiple EVAs and hold eight astronauts? For that NASA can be proud and until further funds are available it will be the most versatile spacecraft we’ll ever produce.

Posted by: msmith | December 12, 2007, 8:09 am 8:09 am

I agree whole-heartedly that the shuttle was way ahead of it’s time even back in the 1970′s.With advances in technology since then,we could make an even better version(using the old one as a template to go by).We could probably even come-up with a better heat shield than the tiles.
I also agree that it was NOT oversold,but underfunded.It would have lived-up to it’s promise of cheap,reusable space flight if it had been done correctly in the first place…. according to the original plan….before budget cuts by Congress(not NASA.If you blame them,it shows you don’t know what you’re talking about).There was a common denominator to both the Challenger and Columbia disasters.In both cases,the shuttle orbiter itself had absolutely NOTHING to do with it.It has still been a very reliable flying machine in spite of it all when considering the tremendous number of sucessful flights it has racked-up.Instead,it was the dangerous external “strap-on” paraphernalia of solid fuel rockets and external tank.This was NOT in the original plan….the result of cutting corners due to budget constraints imposed by Congress.So blame Congress,not the most advanced flying machine ever built.If NASA could have stuck to the original plan,the shuttle would have rode piggy-back ontop a larger reusable rocket-plane(much safer)and these disasters would never have happened in the first place.
The result:cutting corners in the short-run cost far more in the long-run.
Of course,in order to have the ideal space program,we need BOTH large expedable boosters(one-time use)and reusable craft.The large boosters could launch bigger payloads and space stations in a single launch.Then the smaller reusable shuttles could supply,repair and sevice them.It was a big mistake for President Nixon to throw away the big Apollo Saturn-5 workhorse and all the development money that went into it.
But America made a double mistake to have done thrown away the means to build any more shuttles.As a result,it will mean that we will eventully have to re-do two space programs all over again….if we want to have the most ideal space program.But when we keep on swapping horses in mid-stream all the time….instead of sparing no expense to do it right the first time….we wind-up tossing away even more money without getting much accomplished.

Posted by: Chris | November 26, 2008, 11:17 pm 11:17 pm

And of course,the underfunding by Congress was largely due to boredom and lack of interest in the post-Apollo Moon flights.Most ordinary average JOEs and JANEs on the street corner considered space exploration just a big waste a did’nt see any benifit here on Earth.They considered the spectacular glory days of Apollo landings as just a costly technological performance or a stunt of some sort.

Posted by: Chris | November 26, 2008, 11:27 pm 11:27 pm

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