An Asteroid With Our Name on It
If you were up at 3:30 this morning, Eastern Time, you might have heard about asteroid 2007 TU24 making a pretty close call. You say you missed it? It missed us too — coming within about 334,000 miles of Earth, or about 1.4 times the distance to the Moon. Nothing much to worry about, especially since it was probably about 800 feet across. The blob, at top left, is the best image they have of it so far (it’s a radar image, combined from data from the giant dish antennae in Goldstone, Calif., and Arecibo, Puerto Rico). Click HERE for a larger version, not that you can do much with an image that’s a dozen pixels across. If, on the other hand, it had hit the Earth, it might have — well, there’s some disagreement over what it might have done. Mark Boslough of Sandia National Labs in New Mexico has done some modeling with a supercomputer, and decided the famous meteoroid impact in Tunguska, Siberia in 1908 may have been caused by something pretty trivial. 800 square miles of forest were blown down or burned out, and until now scientists estimated that whatever hit then, it had the force of a 10- to 20-megaton nuclear weapon. Boslough disagrees. He says the Tunguska impact may have had a quarter as much force. He can’t say how large the object that hit us was — there are tradeoffs between size, density, speed, etc. — but he says his calculations show it may not have taken much. More HERE. This bodes ill for efforts to protect the Earth from future objects that may turn out to be headed our way, since it suggests we may have to be alert for many more than astronomers were already looking for. There’s a Near Earth Object Program already going, with a budget of about $4.1 million a year from NASA. It may have to get more ambitious. The Jet Propulsion Lab has posted a video HERE. If the Java applet on your computer is working properly, there’s an interactive diagram of TU24′s orbit HERE. It shows we missed. But the scientists remind us there are others out there.
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Wow, that is close. If I remember there have been ‘roids that have come much closer though.
You’ve started off 2008 with some more doom and gloom Ned. I mean, last year we had galactic colisions, solar swelling, and the Mayan calender ending in 4 years now, just to name a few. I guess we’ll have to wait for what 2008 brings us doom watchers. Perhaps a black hole on the rampage in our Solar System? Think you can conjure one of those Ned?
Posted by: Lawrence | January 29, 2008, 4:52 pm 4:52 pm
Note from Ned–
LOL. Always happy to oblige, Lawrence. (For new visitors to this blog, the doom-and-gloom Lawrence mentions has been a running joke.) I’ll work the black hole angle as hard as I can. But I want to be on the record: I never brought up the Mayan calendar.
Posted by: Ned Potter | January 29, 2008, 5:17 pm 5:17 pm
Asteroid insurance anyone?
Posted by: LongT | January 29, 2008, 6:09 pm 6:09 pm
I prefer to ‘dodge’ that one if I could….lol
Posted by: ivbkz | January 29, 2008, 7:01 pm 7:01 pm
Basically, the question is “since there’s not a big doom story right now, how big of a story would really get your attention?” Soooo, just how bad of a cancer would it take to kill someone- please tell me exactly. And just exactly how bad of a stroke would it take to kill??
Posted by: K | January 29, 2008, 8:38 pm 8:38 pm
One of the most recent hypotheses out now is that a comet hit Canada about 13000 years ago, resulting in the extinction of the north american megafauna (mammoths, mastadons, giant ground sloths, etc) and put an end to the Clovis culture. And another one possibly hit about 34,000 years ago. Interesting stuff.
Posted by: cturple | January 29, 2008, 9:34 pm 9:34 pm
sobering… isn’t it?
Posted by: Deborah | January 29, 2008, 9:59 pm 9:59 pm
Back in June, I sent my idea below to former Astronaut Rusty Schweiker, who heads the B612 project regarding this topic.
————————————————
On Sat, 16 Jun 2007 21:14:08 -0400, wrote:
I read an article on ABC News web site last month describing the work of
B612.
Now that it’s established that sunlight alters the tumbling of asteroids, it seems to me that the fastest-response and most cost-effective deployable system to prevent an Earth collision, is to develop a “detect and deflect” system.
This would involve launching a space-based long range asteroid detection system.
In addition, a “space mirror / laser or several” that could target an impending collision, and deflect the asteroid using sun-reflected or energy-charged highly-focused / laser-aligned directed light beam(s).
This deflection might only be slight, but if the distance remains far enough away, a slight deflection is all that is needed to change the angle enough to avoid a collision.
Such a system would quite literally give us a “speed of light” reaction time. No waiting for a launch window, no waiting years to intercept.
Anyone who has ever toyed with a cat chasing a mirror-reflected beam of light knows “the lightbeam always wins!”
======================================
Below was Rusty Schweiker’s response.
Thanks for your idea. The use of mirrors and lasers for deflection has been (and is being) looked at. The devil is in the details and it is far more complicated than you have envisioned. At the moment (and for decades, in all likelihood) it will remain less cost-effective and practical than other techniques. B612
=================================
IMO, I was blown off by B612 for a “more expensive” solution, that will take far longer to execute, and a lot more people will make a lot of money.
Posted by: yes1fan | January 29, 2008, 10:46 pm 10:46 pm
…remainder of truncated message….
Anyone who has ever toyed with a cat chasing a mirror-reflected beam of
light knows “the lightbeam always wins!”
Posted by: yes1fan | January 29, 2008, 10:48 pm 10:48 pm
Ned, the Mayan calendar was my contribution to the doom-and-gloom scenario. I wonder what’s worse, knowing when the end will come or being blind-sided by it?
I also have a question about the mirror-in-space idea to deflect an asteroid, namely, won’t there be a Newtonian reaction against the spacecraft that bears the mirror? If sunlight can deflect the asteroid, wouldn’t it also deflect the spacecraft?
Posted by: Andy | January 30, 2008, 8:17 am 8:17 am
Deflection of asteroids has to be calculated carefully so the deflection doesn’t cause impact to other planets other than Earth.
Posted by: Bob | January 30, 2008, 8:32 am 8:32 am
Yea, the Mayan calender is Andy’s fault. Thats an excellent question Andy, one worth looking into. Though, with thrusters, I think it can be over come, but then we’d have to keep it fueled. And even then, we’d have to deflect it in a way that we don’t cause it to just come back in the future.
Posted by: Lawrence | January 30, 2008, 8:39 am 8:39 am
What! Who is afraid of a little asteroid or a big for that matter. Nothing can make me cower after seven years of the Gorge W Bush running this country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.
Posted by: Jack-cass | January 30, 2008, 12:55 pm 12:55 pm
One of my favorite columnists from the Chicago Sun-Times, Zay N. Smith, often writes in his “Quick Takes” column about such celestial near-misses as this one, so I can’t say I haven’t heard of something like this before. But Ned, Lawrence is absolutely right: can’t you give us a warm, uplifting scientific story about puppies or kittens which doesn’t end in near-cataclysmic destruction?
Posted by: chuck | January 30, 2008, 3:34 pm 3:34 pm
Yes Ned, Kittens and Puppies please.
Posted by: Lawrence | January 30, 2008, 5:14 pm 5:14 pm