Squeakers
How close have Presidential elections been? Closer, perhaps, than we ever guessed. Mike Sheppard, a grad student in statistics at Michigan State, has done a mathematical exercise that shows it. He ran a computer program to answer this question: "What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?" The answer: in some years, very, very few. Take a look at his analysis HERE. It shows the powerful interaction between the popular vote and the electoral college. For example, he says, look at just the last three elections: "In 2004, 57,787 votes would have given us President Kerry. "In 2000, 269 votes would have given us President Gore "In 1996, 575,515 votes would have given us President Dole."We all knew, of course, how contentious the 2000 election was — but Sheppard shows that time and again, history could have been changed by just a few thousand Americans. In 1976, his numbers reveal that Jimmy Carter would have lost if only Hawaii and Ohio had gone to Gerald Ford, and it would have taken only 9,246 votes to do that. Would the Iran hostage crisis have happened in 1979, then? Would Ronald Reagan have won in 1980? Or look at the election of 1916 — one that we don’t think about very much these days. Woodrow Wilson was re-elected that year, boasting that he’d kept America out of World War I — but in 1917 he got America in. What if Charles Evans Hughes had won, and handled the war differently? Would the Treaty of Versailles been less harsh on the Germans? Would World War II have happened? Sheppard’s analysis shows Hughes (did you ever learn about him high school history?) would have won if only he’d taken California. He came up short by 1,887 votes. And what if Nixon had beaten Kennedy in 1960? Or if Humphrey had beaten Nixon in 1968? I sent Sheppard an e-mail, and he replied last night. "There have been 12 Presidential elections that were decided by less than a 1% margin," he wrote, "meaning if less than 1% of the voters in certain states had changed their mind to the other candidate the outcome of the entire election would have been different. More than half were decided by less than a 2% margin." And what does all this imply for the 2008 election, five weeks away?
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What this means is that one candicacy can steal an entire presidential election merely by creating havoc at a small group of specific voting sites in Florida and Ohio. Sound familiar? The only way to beat this cheating is to have such an overwhelming vote for one candidate over the other. Vote democratic and restore our democracy.
Posted by: Bilbo | September 29, 2008, 12:02 pm 12:02 pm
Bilbo:
This country was never a real “democracy” and it was neve meant to be. The Founding Fathers set it up as a Democratic Republic, which is a different sort of animal. In a true democracy, everyone votes on everything; are you prepared to vote on the dog-cather issue in Lower Moosejaw, MT? Do you even know what the issue is? No? I didn’t think so.
A Democratic Republic is defined as “A form of government in which the people hold most of the power; that power is exercised through representatives elected for that purpose by those citizens eligible to vote.” This is what the Founders set up for us and it used to work quite well; it could still work well IF we elected people who would actually REPRESENT our views. The problem arises when we elect, and re-elect, and re-elect (ad nauseum) those who feel that they have been elected to forward THEIR agendas, not ours.
When those hired to represent us do not do an adequate job, they should be fired! Would you keep hiring a plumber or a mechanic who consistently failed to correct your problems, while at the same time blaming you for each failure and then turning around and billing you an exorbitant amount each time? I surely wouldn’t! If you’re not satified with the work your government hirelings (ie, representatives, House and Senate) are doing, don’t send them back to keep doing things you didn’t hire them to do. FIRE THEM!!
Most people don’t look at the white collar professions this way. Most don’t hesitate to fire that incompetent plumber or mechanic, but feel that doctors, lawyers, and those we send to represent us in government are somehow immune to that treatment, are somehow sacrosanct … immune from criticism or censure. They are NOT!!!!
People need to wake up and start really examining what these people are doing in your name. And make no mistake, when you vote to send them off to represent you they become your voice in government. If these people consistently don’t represent the views of you and your neighbors, vote them out of office! Hire someone else who WILL represent your views, and let them know right up front if they fail to do that job you will NOT rehire them. A lot won’t believe you’re serious, but after one or two are summarily dismissed for failure to perform the rest will start to get the message.
This means that you will have to think about your own views and compare them to a candidate’s, which takes a bit of time … time well worth spending. And under no circumstances should voting be done on a “straight party ticket” basis. No matter what party you favor, I guarantee that voting this way will assure that some people will take office who couldn’t care less about what you and your fellow citizens really want.
I will close with one simple question and one comment: Do your representatives, at all levels, actually represent your view, at least most of the time? If the answer is “No” and you keep sending them back anyway, you deserve whatever you get in return.
Posted by: Walker Evans | September 29, 2008, 2:11 pm 2:11 pm
Walker Evans: Very well put. Someone defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result each time. Sounds like we’re there.
Posted by: andy | September 29, 2008, 4:42 pm 4:42 pm
Andy,
About two years ago my wife and I were in need of a new general practice doctor; we “shopped around” by talking to friends and spending time checking the state medical board’s web site for malpractice suits, complaints, etc.. We finally settled on a prospect and set up an appointment; this doctor was somewhat surprised when he found out the reason for our appointment was to interview him for the position of our family physician. He was even more surprised when he found out we had checked with the state about malpractice complaints, filings, and so forth.
However, he has worked out beautifully. He actually listens to us and doesn’t presume that because we aren’t medical doctors ourselves we aren’t capable of properly describing our problems and needs. As a result we are now getting the best medical care we have ever had.
We were also instrumental in getting our U.S. Congressman of many terms fired and replaced with someone who, in the last two years, has actually worked for the best interests of her constituency. We don’t claim to have done this alone, but we spent a lot of time getting folks to think about the points I have raised here. If more people would only take the time to do some minimal investigating (voting and attendance records are easily accessed) we would all be better off.
As Will Rogers once said, “Be thankful we’re not getting all the government we’re paying for.”
P.S. I have used the definition of insanity that you quoted for a number of years. Heinlein was right about The Crazy Years … his only error was one of timing; he set them in the 1980′s. In actuality, The Crazy Years are NOW!!
Posted by: Walker Evans | September 29, 2008, 6:28 pm 6:28 pm
Walker Evans: And now, we’re still in the land of Science Fiction. We’re faced with the Marching Morons, though I have to wonder if there is lurking out there anyone who can save our bacon.
Posted by: andy | September 30, 2008, 8:11 am 8:11 am
(scratches head) I thought Clinton won 1996 by more than 2%. It was a clean-sweep from what I remember as a voter in that election.
Posted by: GWP | September 30, 2008, 10:13 am 10:13 am
Andy,
It is going to take a lot of really hard work, by a lot of people, if we’re going to turn this situation around. Unfortunately, I don’t see that many people who are willing to do the necessary work. I admit there are lots of them that are willing to work, but only if we accept their agenda as a working base. And many of those agendas are diametrically opposed, making working together almost impossible. What we need is to leave these petty positions behind us and come together as Americans to solve the two problems that threaten us all: the economy and the threat posed by the constant encroachment of radical Islam. I don’t know how to solve the economic problem, but this gazillion dollar bail-out just doesn’t look to be that good a solution. As for the other, the starting point for a solution is as simple as admitting the problem exists and dropping the absurd PC attitude that somehow we mustn’t offend these people, no matter what the cost to ourselves. After all, these poor, misunderstood radicals only want to spread their religion and way of life to the entire world, setting up a Worldwide Caliphate and killing all who dare to reject their Perfect Religion.
As for the living in a science fiction world right now, I’m actually hoping that’s true. It’s way too late for me, but it would be nice if my kids could just move away from here … not too far, mind you, but far enough that the troubles we have here would no longer bother them.
Mars looks as if it would be a good choice. Oh sure, a little terra-forming would be needed, but we’ve actually known how to do that for a long time. As Konstantin Tsiolkovsky has said, “Earth is the cradle of humanity, but mankind cannot stay in the cradle forever.”
I have to get back to work. It’s been nice talking with you.
Posted by: Walker Evans | September 30, 2008, 2:47 pm 2:47 pm
Note from Ned–
GWP, you’re quite right that the 1996 election was not close. Sheppard tells me his point is that even so, a lot of not-so-close elections could have gone the other way if just the right combination of votes had gone the other way, enough to shift the Electoral College totals to favor the loser. He says he did this study because he couldn’t find others that demonstrated the interplay between the popular and electoral votes.
Posted by: Ned Potter | October 3, 2008, 5:15 pm 5:15 pm