The Downward March of the Penguins
EmailThe emperor penguins are the kings of the cold. But a new study says they could be wiped out by warmth by century’s end. You may remember them as movie stars — from “March of the Penguins,” the 2005 documentary, or “Happy Feet,” the 2006 computer-animated comedy. Both films marveled how they migrate for up to 70 miles, in the darkness of the Antarctic winter, to bear their young, often in temperatures that push 40 degrees below zero. Now there’s a paper, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, saying that by the end of the century, if climate warming continues at current rates, there is a chance the penguins’ numbers could be diminished by 95 percent. The full text of the paper is HERE. "These are serious declines in the population, and would put it at considerable risk for going completely extinct in that area," said Hal Caswell, a senior biologist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and one of the paper’s six authors. Caswell said they do not expect a gradual increase in temperature. Instead, there could be surprise warm spells, which would melt the sea ice on which the penguins spend most of their time along the Antarctic coast. They’ve happened before, and after one of them, the penguins’ numbers temporarily declined by half. Increases in greenhouse warming would presumably make such spells more frequent and intense, he said. Caswell and his colleagues used the computer models that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change did to make its 2007 assessment of the global climate. Mindful of criticisms of such models, they combined the calculations from ten of them, whose output in the past has corresponded to what actually happened to Antarctic sea ice. They studied one section of Antarctica known as Terre Adelie, due south of Australia. It is useful because there is a French research base there (“March of the Penguins” was filmed in the area) from which emperor penguin populations have been consistently monitored for almost 50 years. The climate models said the penguin colony there “likely will shrink from its present size of 3,000 to only 400 breeding pairs” by the year 2100, unless levels of greenhouse gases stop increasing under what the IPCC refers to as a “business as usual” scenario. Chances of a 95 percent decline in population is somewhere between 40 and 80 percent. "We should be concerned about it because the world would be much a less rich place without emperor penguins,” said Caswell. "We do have to remember that they are part of an entire ecosystem, and if the charismatic species are being affected, you can be sure that there are also less well-known and less familiar species that are being affected by the kinds of changes that are going on."
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I wish the mass media would quit trying to foist the ‘global warming lie’ on the uneducated public which has been produced by the NEA
Posted by: Sluggo | January 26, 2009, 6:46 pm 6:46 pm
And where were the Emperor Penguins during the Medieval warming period? All huddled at the South Pole? IT’s the Sun!
Posted by: Franko | January 26, 2009, 8:32 pm 8:32 pm
We lost eight years of valuable time in which we may have averted this looming disaster, thanks to the irresponsible criminal who occupied our White House! His “legacy”? Death and destruction! Russia had its Rasputin, we had our Dubya!
Posted by: comtek | January 26, 2009, 8:57 pm 8:57 pm
If the population gets small enough, wouldn’t that also mean that there’s an insufficient genetic diversity for the species to survive anyway? It doesn’t matter if the root cause is warming or predation.
Posted by: andyr | January 27, 2009, 12:42 pm 12:42 pm
Chalk this one up to “The Audacity to Think We Can Control the Earth’s Climate”.
Here is a list of scientific phrases used in this article: “could be”, “there is a chance”, “considerable risk”, “would presumably”, “used computer models”, “likely”. Boy, there’s a qualitative analysis. All of the nightmare-ish possibilities presented here fly in the face of the fact that Antarctic sea ice area has been WELL ABOVE AVERAGE for the past 20 years (Cryosphere Today). But hey, don’t let facts get in the way of a real tear-jerker.
Posted by: Woody | January 27, 2009, 5:07 pm 5:07 pm
read the scientific literature! global warming is a fact. that God will teleport you when it gets too hot is a belief. global warming is a fact. once you disappear from the planet your children and their grandchildren will have to pay dearly. why not try now to stop the ruin of the earth? it’s our responsibility and the time is now.
Posted by: Paulus | January 27, 2009, 5:35 pm 5:35 pm
Today, Al Gore was going to testify before the Senate about why we have to stop global warming. His appointment was canceled due to snowstorms during a record cold DC winter. When will people get a clue?
Posted by: patriot | January 27, 2009, 9:00 pm 9:00 pm
Will somebody save something for cripes sake? Plus, what about those penquins that keep washing up in Brazil??? Is it global warming or some idiot that is releasing his ships toxic waste in their precious waters(next to those constantly beached whales in Australia.)
Posted by: Suzannaquanashawn | January 27, 2009, 11:07 pm 11:07 pm
Paulus
Read the rest of the scientific literature. AGW is a fact nut CATASTROPHIC AGW is a lie.
Posted by: Quietman | January 28, 2009, 8:15 am 8:15 am
nut s/b but (I wasn’t calling you a nut).
Posted by: Quietman | January 28, 2009, 8:16 am 8:16 am
To put things into perspective, we just came out of a PDO “warm” cycle, coupled withe a lot of tectonic activity and a very active solar cycle. Add in a little GHG and you get some warming. Take away any of the above mentioned factors and you would not notice anything at all. That’s why you can expect the next 20 to 40 years to be normal to colder than normal (normal for the 20th century).
Posted by: Quietman | January 28, 2009, 8:20 am 8:20 am
withe s/b with (I’m going back to bed until the snow stops).
Posted by: Quietman | January 28, 2009, 8:22 am 8:22 am
I agree Quietman. It probably also doesn’t help the climate when we’re approaching the active phase of the 11 year solar cycle. The last really active year was, I think, 1998 or 1999. I was working in a public observatory at the time, and I was in charge of letting people look at the sun through our scope.
Another reason, is that we’re in a warming period between glaciation. We could end up slipping back to a glacial period. Although, with the lower albedo from the poles, this may be harder. We could also be going into a relative warm period, similar to the Mesozoic era, if I’ve got my geologic era’s and periods right. This would be a similar climate to when the dinosaurs roamed the Earth. Or, we could just be guessing completely wrong.
Or, my favorite, God could just be a really mean practical joker. Giving us warming poles and freezing the US.
Posted by: Lawrence | January 28, 2009, 8:48 am 8:48 am
Lawrence
I heard that SS24 will be even quieter than SS23 and SS23 will be similar to SS13.
Palaver
In the News business, bad news sells. It’s not just ABC, It’s all of the news media that hupes the Green message and ignores anything that goes against the consensus. For that kind of news you have to go directly to the peer reciewed papers and most are not free to read.
Posted by: Quietman | January 28, 2009, 1:44 pm 1:44 pm
We lost eight years of valuable time in which we may have averted this looming disaster, thanks to the irresponsible criminal who occupied our White House! His “legacy”? Death and destruction! Russia had its Rasputin, we had our Dubya!
Posted by: comtek
__________________________________
Gee comtek, what Godlike power Bush and these Republicans must have had, to control the weather the way they did! I’ll bet they must have invented hurricanes and earthquakes too!
Posted by: marco | January 28, 2009, 5:03 pm 5:03 pm
You are crazy we must protect our country to and its not just the government its each one of us that can
make a differance, just like now you
complain but do you know how much power that computer takes to run.
Posted by: atv tires | January 31, 2009, 11:57 am 11:57 am
Global warming? Yeah I think so. Human induced due to CO2? Probably. Will humans do anything to prevent it? Not likely (probably to late anyhow, barring the collapse of industrial society).
A series of Pinatubo style eruptions might do the trick.
Posted by: AndyJ | February 1, 2009, 9:09 pm 9:09 pm