Did Humans Help Cause the Great China Earthquake?
EmailEarthquakes, whether you’re a believer or an actuary, are "acts of God." We humans do not have the power to predict, stop, or cause them. Or so we think. We all jumped a bit at a headline in The Telegraph of London: "Chinese earthquake may have been man-made, say scientists." "An earthquake that killed at least 80,000 people in Sichuan last year may have been triggered by an enormous dam just miles from the epicentre," says Malcolm Moore’s article from Shanghai. (See the full text HERE.) "The 511ft-high Zipingpu dam holds 315 million tonnes of water and lies just 550 yards from the fault line, and three miles from the epicentre, of the Sichuan earthquake. "Now scientists in China and the United States believe the weight of water, and the effect of it penetrating into the rock, could have affected the pressure on the fault line underneath, possibly unleashing a chain of ruptures that led to the quake. "Fan Xiao, the chief engineer of the Sichuan Geology and Mineral Bureau in Chengdu, said it was ‘very likely’ that the construction and filling of the reservoir in 2004 had led to the disaster." Huh? We talked to a number of seismologists, and it turns out there is a lively debate going on in geology, with scientists believing that while the weight of a reservoir may not actually "cause" an earthquake, it may add to the stresses near a fault line, and hasten a quake that would have happened eventually. "There have been some fairly large earthquakes that you can say were triggered by reservoirs around them, but proving this is not easy," says Leonardo Seeber of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, N.Y. In the case of last year’s China disaster, he says, "the conditions for the earthquake were there, and the trigger — the reservoir — is, shall we say, the straw that broke the camel’s back." The earthquake, in Sichuan Province in May, is estimated to have killed about 80,000 people and left five million homeless. The region where it struck has been fairly quiet, but it is close to the line between tectonic plates where the Indian subcontinent is pushing northward into the rest of Asia. Christian Klose, a researcher at Columbia, made a presentation to the American Geophysical Union in December that in Sichuan, "The water volume amplified the strain energy on the Earth’s crust," relieving stresses in some places underground — but worsening it elsewhere. His abstract is HERE. Richard Kerr and Richard Stone, writing in the journal Science (their piece is HERE, but it’s subscription-only), say he is coy about his explosive subject; he never even mentions the dam. But his colleagues know, and urge caution. Paul Earle of the U.S. Geological Survey, in an e-mail to me, writes, "the only remote possible effect the dam had was to trigger the earthquake before it would have otherwise happened if the dam was not there. It is very difficult to make this connection and it remains rather speculative." Still, Seeber says there have been cases in the past where a reservoir provided a possible trigger for an earthquake, and in some, there’s no saying the quake would have happened any time soon without it. Are we more powerful than we thought? Seeber says it sometimes takes surprisingly little to upset the earth beneath us.
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Only Al Gore would know.
Posted by: Chas | February 3, 2009, 4:12 pm 4:12 pm
I don’t buy this for a minute. If this were true there would be many more (and much more severe) earthquakes in the coastal regions, especially Puget Sound and San Francisco. That reservoir didn’t hold nearly as much water as Puget Sound holds!
Posted by: Not Buying It | February 3, 2009, 4:21 pm 4:21 pm
Not Buying It: You’re assuming, though, that the earth’s tectonic conditions are uniformly distributed throughout the planet. As it is, the geologic conditions near Sichuan is much more sensitive to stress than in California or Washington.
Posted by: Tom | February 3, 2009, 4:27 pm 4:27 pm
@Not Buying It
Unlike Puget Sound or the San Francisco bay, the large Chinese reservoir didn’t exist before 2004. It is this relatively “sudden” increase in pressure with that volume of water where it hadn’t been before that could have caused the earthquake. They’re not talking about the mere presence of an existing body of water causing the earthquake.
Posted by: Paul | February 3, 2009, 4:34 pm 4:34 pm
People GOD decides everything and that is a fact.
We have used and abused everything he gave to us for free and now he is tired of the abuse and he is taking it back little by little and that is a fact.
Posted by: Carol | February 3, 2009, 4:42 pm 4:42 pm
The full moon in perigee, and other large planets pulling on the earth are usually the cause of quakes. To think we could have caused this quake is silly, I think.
Posted by: JennaNYC | February 3, 2009, 4:42 pm 4:42 pm
Must be Bush and those Republicans again! Gee, they never stop causing earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, or tsunamis. Bush must have INVENTED the earthquake.
As Al Gore would put it, I hear they are even causing chaos on other planets too. They caused meteor showers on Jupitor, cold temperatures on Mars and even comets in the stratosphere.
What are we going to do!!! We’re DOOMED!
Posted by: marco | February 3, 2009, 4:53 pm 4:53 pm
Carol, nice try. Nothing pertaining to ‘God’ is indeed a ‘fact.’ Your god does not create earthquakes, or cure the gout in Aunt Edna’s big toe, or cause one Texas high school football team to triumph over another. Don’t be afraid to look to science…religion only exists to control and repress an otherwise inquisitive species.
Posted by: Pablito | February 3, 2009, 4:57 pm 4:57 pm
some of you are doomed. Others see nature as something to work with and preserve… and we are often powerless to stop those who choose to rape it and deny profit when there are consequences.
Posted by: Dewy | February 3, 2009, 5:00 pm 5:00 pm
The Puget Sound doesn’t “hold” any water. It’s a branch of the Pacific Ocean. The earth’s crust at the coastal regions would not be affected the same as in Sichuan. The crust at Sichuan, at the interior of a continent, is not acclimated to the additional weight and stresses of a large body of water.
Posted by: Tim G., Hillsboro, OR | February 3, 2009, 5:23 pm 5:23 pm
The comments above about Puget Sound and San Francisco Bay are silly. First of all they’ve been there for a long time and thus have already equillibrated with the regional stress field. More concisely, San Francisco Bay and Puget Sound are there because of earthquakes and tectonic fault motion.
That said, there is plenty of evidence that suggests this “could” happen, ie. elevated seismicity in tectonically quiet regions such as South Africa caused by mining and earthquakes induced by pumping hydrocarbons into and from the ground. So it is entirely possible for a large body of water to alter the regional stress field enough to expedite an earthquake. However, you should realize that this is not yet published science and is still largely speculative.
Posted by: Raymond | February 3, 2009, 5:25 pm 5:25 pm
In the new world order, everything bad is caused by humans. We are a scourge on the earth. Life will be so much better when there are no more people to mess up the planet…
Posted by: Dave C | February 3, 2009, 5:28 pm 5:28 pm
I don’t believe in any of that Church of Siesmology business. All those movie stars don’t know anything.
Posted by: Bubba Beernut | February 3, 2009, 5:30 pm 5:30 pm
Some of you really need to actualy fact check before you post. And putting everything on “God” is a cop-out. Please, please use the wonderful brain that billions of years of evolution has given you and think, research, read. Really, it does make you look smarter and more informed. The sound in California is a natural resivoir- the one in china is mane made- so they are two different beasts. please stop comparing them. God is not a scientific fact (tho I do belive he exists in some form or another) so please stop touting him as such. And as far as the planets effecting earthquakes- I snorted milk through my nose when I read that. Please.
Posted by: MelissaREADS | February 3, 2009, 5:45 pm 5:45 pm
A couple of questions: 1. Is the dam still structurally sound after the quake? 2. Is this that same dam whose construction was featured on NatGeo, PBS and several other TV programs as an engineering marvel?
Posted by: SciFan | February 3, 2009, 5:52 pm 5:52 pm
The title of this article is totally misleading, i.e. the people in United States have absolutely nothing to do with the recent earthquake in Szechuan, China. There has been strong evidence worldwide in the past that new hydro dams could trigger the earthquake because of the water in the reservoir can redistributed the weight on the earth shells. Unlike the post depression period in the 30′s when FDR ordered the construction of TVA and Grand Coulee dam , there has been no major of dam in the United States in the past three to four decades even though the electric power is a kind of green energy, mainly due to the objection of the environmentalists in U.S. . On the other hand, the Chinese engineers have built over 20,000 dams, about half of the total world, all over China during the past six decades after the foundation of the new republic. Actually, many established geologist and earthquake scientists have actually predicted the occurrence of the major earthquake in Szechuan province where a lot of hydro dams have been built in the hills west of the capital city Chendue. An important fact supporting the theory of dam building triggering earthquake is that there have been very few earthquake in Szechuan before the hydro enginneers started large scale dam building there half century ago.
Posted by: austin | February 3, 2009, 6:02 pm 6:02 pm
It’s probably not the water’s weight per se. When you build a dam, you raise the water table. A lot.
Pressure at the bottom of the lake could be pretty high and water can penetrate a fault. I think this happened in California once–scientists were injecting water into a fault for some reason or another and a bunch of quakes started happening (whoops!).
Posted by: matyra | February 3, 2009, 6:03 pm 6:03 pm
Gorebots and Obamabots know nothing of science – they just make up crazy ideas in order to scare you and take your money away from you.
Posted by: One_American | February 3, 2009, 6:12 pm 6:12 pm
I believe that a reservoir can contribute to triggering a quake. Shortly after the Oroville Dam in northern California was finished in the 1970s there was an appreciable quake in the area.
Posted by: Publius | February 3, 2009, 6:24 pm 6:24 pm
There’s a lesson to be learned here. Don’t build your home in front of a dam that sits on a fault line.
Posted by: Spread The Wealth | February 3, 2009, 6:41 pm 6:41 pm
There was a discovery episode a year or so ago that linked the water level of the pacific ocean to the number of earthquakes throughout history. The higher the level the more and stronger earthquakes and volcanoes along the pacific rim of fire. All of that weight pressing against the edges of the tectonic plates creates heat and pressure. It has to go somewhere. In regards to this dam and why previous dams did not trigger earthquakes in China, This thing is HUGE.
Posted by: Tom | February 3, 2009, 6:41 pm 6:41 pm
An earlier poster referenced an earthquake in California that was caused by injecting water into the ground-This really happened, a group that was pumping oil out of the ground started pumping water into the ground, near a fault line, under high pressure, to extract more oil. The high pressure water in the region of the fault infiltrated the fault and had the effect of not only increasing the stress on the fault, but also acting as a ‘lubricant,’ making it much easier for the fault to rupture and cause a serious earthquake. Sounds a lot to me like we’re looking at a similar situation here with the dam substantially raising the water table, causing both increased stress from the weight of the water and the high pressure needed to lubricate the fault line.
Posted by: skiingimpy | February 3, 2009, 7:18 pm 7:18 pm
“Must be Bush and those Republicans again!” says marco
Maybe or maybe not, but after all the OTHER catastrophes of that bunch of criminals, we’ll never know.
Posted by: JR | February 3, 2009, 7:26 pm 7:26 pm
No offense, but this really isn’t worth fighting about over the inernet!
Posted by: aaaaa | February 3, 2009, 7:39 pm 7:39 pm
I was checking out other lakes, or dams that were near or on a fault. Lake Ontario sits right over one, but it appears it hasnt caused any seismic events. Must not have enough water in it which is about a third of the China dam.
Posted by: tendergroins | February 3, 2009, 7:54 pm 7:54 pm
YEP, IDIOTS USED TO TEST A-BOMBS NEAR THE SAN ANDREAS ALSO, IT ALL DEFINITELY HAS A GLOBAL AND CUMULATIVE EFFECT.
NOW, IMAGINE 10,000 DYNAMITE CHARGES DIRECTLY ON THAT FAULT OVER 5 YEARS TO BUILD THE DAM… HELLO?
Posted by: CHUCK | February 3, 2009, 7:56 pm 7:56 pm
The China Quake was caused by HAARP, a man made technology. This ‘story’ is a nice ‘cushion’ though.
Posted by: Jack | February 3, 2009, 10:05 pm 10:05 pm
Not Buying It….I grew up in the Puget Sound area and the Puget Sound is not China.
Posted by: Johnny_Wad | February 3, 2009, 11:31 pm 11:31 pm
Since many more reservoir and dams will be built worldwide in coming years , I simply think the theory needs to be examined closely . Whether or not you like China or it’s government , reserviors , dams and earthquakes are a combination that can be found in many countries including our own .
If this combination is truly an issue it would be best to know NOW rather than billions of dollars in construction later , and countless lives lost . Arguing about it online won’t solve or decide anything .
On the surface , the idea of high water pressure in a reservior injecting water into a fault line and lubricating it causing an earthquake sounds possible . Lets find out for sure !!!
Posted by: J Young | February 4, 2009, 2:08 am 2:08 am
Pablito,
Don’t let your prejudice blind you from the truth. Science is merely a study of what God has already created. We are the mere earthlings trying to figure it all out. This is why there is a scientific process, beginning with a theory, before anything is declared Scientific Law. Sometimes we get too anxious and overreach beyond the Scientific Process and come up with outlandish claims such as this one.
We all need to calm down, take a deep breath and realize that we might be our own worst enemy. Our anxiety may drive us to action that we’ll regret. The Defcon One mentality might cause us to destroy the world in our own anxiety over it.
Relax people and do something kind for your neighbor, mother, or child. This is the best thing we can do to change the world. No amount of hand-wringing, finger pointing, and name calling is doing any good.
Posted by: Defcon One | February 4, 2009, 2:16 am 2:16 am
Chuck Norris did it. Seriously, he said it himself. Did you guys even read his response?
In all seriousness, iteresting concept. It makes sense, mountains push continental material downward. Much like an iceberg, most of the mountains, are not visible. Water could do the same.
Posted by: Lawrence | February 4, 2009, 8:57 am 8:57 am
First of all, before I comment on the article, I have to wonder why people who are so willing to denounce science at the drop of a hat are registered to a SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BLOG. It’s like you are looking for trouble. I mean, really. Being a Catholic, I do believe that God is my creator. But I am also a woman of science, and I do believe in evolution and man’s effect on nature, and things of that nature, and that science an religion can go hand-in-hand. Saying that man has nothing to do with nature is like saying that God put greenhouse gases in the atmosphere because he wants to watch us all cook like lobsters. :S
ANYWAY, I do find this article fascinating, and it makes sense, now that I think about it. It’s kind of like what happens when you take a knife and jab it into a very full pie. :D
Posted by: Facepalm | February 4, 2009, 11:47 am 11:47 am
Probably the same flat earth group that deny the existance of subduction zones and plate tectonics.
Posted by: Quietman | February 4, 2009, 5:42 pm 5:42 pm
This is an interesting theory. There will have to be further research and testing to see if this is plausible. I don’t think that people could have foreseen this disaster upon the construction of this damn. If what they are saying is true, this is a great lesson learned and can possible prevent, delay, or just lessen the impact of future earthquakes.
Posted by: Andrew | February 4, 2009, 6:05 pm 6:05 pm
We are not more powerful than we think. We are frailer than we think.
Posted by: Paper Tiger | February 5, 2009, 5:21 am 5:21 am
Trigger: To set off; initiate.
Cause: To make happen; to bring about
Sounds a lot like the dam that “triggered” the eathquake may have also “caused” it.
I bet the CIA was behind it.
Posted by: carl | February 5, 2009, 9:02 pm 9:02 pm
There’s a James bond movie where the bad guy tries to cause quakes in California by pumping water into the faults…. Maybe it works like lube… Helps stuck rocks to slip a little…
Posted by: PM | February 6, 2009, 4:23 am 4:23 am
Maybe?????????
Posted by: Gary | February 6, 2009, 4:42 am 4:42 am
Since many more reservoir and dams will be built worldwide in coming years , I simply think the theory needs to be examined closely . Whether or not you like China or it’s government , reserviors , dams and earthquakes are a combination that can be found in many countries including our own .
If this combination is truly an issue it would be best to know NOW rather than billions of dollars in construction later , and countless lives lost . Arguing about it online won’t solve or decide anything .
On the surface , the idea of high water pressure in a reservior injecting water into a fault line and lubricating it causing an earthquake sounds possible . Lets find out for sure !!!
Posted by: Gary | February 6, 2009, 4:43 am 4:43 am
Only slightly off topic, it’s worth noting that all the dams built during the past 100 years have redistributed enough water to measurably alter the Earth’s rotational speed. (Very similar to a spinning ice skater extending their arms to slow down.)
Triggering an earthquake certainly seems plausible.
Posted by: James | February 6, 2009, 7:36 am 7:36 am
Some of the comments talking about water as a lubricant are near to the mark. It’s well known that lubricated faults have more but less severe earthquakes. In order for this earthquake to have been so devastating it would have had to have been building for a very long time without the aid of lubricant to allow small releases of pressure (a series of small earthquakes). But a dam in china does not explain the sudden increase in tectonic activity worldwide.
Posted by: Quietman | February 6, 2009, 1:14 pm 1:14 pm
ya~its sounds weird…..im not heard about it before..
btw~i live in Chengdu Sichuan China~
Posted by: KT | February 8, 2009, 2:05 am 2:05 am
KT
But I think that you must remember a Tsunami a couple years ago in Indonesia. That was also plate tectonics.
Posted by: Quietman | February 8, 2009, 12:27 pm 12:27 pm