Gas Prices Hurt, But it's Been Worse

Most Americans say spiking gasoline prices are causing them financial hardship -- but for now at least, broader consumer confidence is holding the line.

Fifty-seven percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say $2-plus gas is hurting their family's finances, and 29 percent say it's hurting seriously. But that's down from 64 percent last May (37 percent seriously), when gas was 5 cents cheaper than it is now.

Thicker skin when it comes to gas prices (up 33 cents since January) may be one reason the ABC/Post Consumer Confidence Index has held steady. The index stands at -9 on its scale of +100 to -100 this week, matching both its 2005 average and its long-term average in weekly polls since late 1985.

As gas prices spiked last May, by contrast, the index fell five points, to -16. And from May to mid-June, it lost nine points.

The change in gas prices this time has been less dramatic, which may help explain why it has been less disruptive. Prices spiked to $2 a gallon last spring from a lower point ($1.51 in January 2004, for example). Since last May, however, they've stayed above $1.75.

The U.S. Department of Energy reported this week that pump prices now average $2.11 a gallon -- an all-time high in nominal terms, though in inflation-adjusted terms the peak was much higher, $3.08 in March 1981.

There are other factors in the economy, though, and in raising interest rates by a quarter point today the Federal Reserve noted that "labor market conditions continue to improve gradually" and the increase in energy prices "has not notably fed through to core consumer prices." These also could be helping to steady consumer confidence.

Still, 57 percent is a substantial number to report financial hardship as a result of gas prices. It compares with an average of 47 percent in polls since 2000.

GROUPS -- People in lower-income households feel the biggest pinch: Sixty-eight percent say gas prices are hurting them, compared with 41 percent of those in $75,000+ households. There are also some regional differences, with hardship because of gas prices ranging from 50 percent in the Northeast to 60 percent in the South.

BLAME -- More Americans are now blaming President Bush for the rising oil and gas prices -- 34 percent do, up from 27 percent last May. And Bush is also receiving more blame than others: Fewer, 19 percent, blame U.S. oil companies and 23 percent blame other oil producing countries.

There's a strongly partisan aspect to this blame: Fifty-seven percent of Democrats blame Bush for rising gas prices (up 10 points from last May), compared with 29 percent of independents and 12 percent of Republicans. Younger and lower-income adults also are more apt to blame Bush.

This poll finds no difference in reported hardship as a result of gas prices between car drivers and SUV drivers, even though SUVs tend to get low gas mileage. One possible reason is that SUV drivers are better-positioned to afford it: High-income people are three times as likely as those with the lowest incomes to drive SUVs.

INDEX -- The ABC/Post index is made up of ratings of the economy, the buying climate and personal finances. This week, 37 percent say the economy's in good shape, 39 percent call it a good time to buy things and 60 percent say their own finances are OK. All are within a few points of their long-term averages.

INDEX TREND -- At -9 the index is well off its peak, +38 in January 2000, but also far from its worst, -50 in February 1992. As noted, it matches its average, -9 in weekly polls since December 1985.

INDEX GROUPS -- As usual, the index is better in better-off groups: +29 among higher-income Americans while -57 among those with the lowest incomes, +5 among college graduates while -40 among those who haven't finished high school, -3 among whites but -52 among blacks and -3 among men, while -16 among women.

The index is best in the Northeast and West, worst in the Midwest. And it remains much higher among Republicans (+28) than among independents (-15) or Democrats (-35).

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 39 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES -- Sixty percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 59 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE -- Thirty-nine percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 40 percent last week. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

METHODOLOGY -- Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending March 20, 2005. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The gas prices results are based on an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted by telephone March 16-20, 2005, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork was done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as co-sponsor of this index at the start of this year. The survey methodology remains the same.

Click here for PDF version with charts and data table.

See previous analyses in our Poll Vault.