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Broad Support for ‘Last-Chance’ Plan
Poll: Many More Now Say Bush’s Iraq Policy Is Clear

Analysis
by Gary Langer

ABCNEWS.com

Sept. 15 — President Bush has made broad strides in public support for his Iraq policy: Americans overwhelmingly favor his "last chance" proposal on arms inspections, and the belief that he has a clear plan to deal with Baghdad has surged.


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Support for military action still falls off sharply if U.S. allies are against it. And most American oppose a high-casualty ground war, a compunction the public did not hold when it came to military action against Al Qaeda and the Taliban last fall.

Despite those concerns, this ABCNEWS' This Week with George Stephanopoulos poll finds that Bush has gained on several fronts since an ABCNEWS poll Aug. 29. Sixty-eight percent now support military action against Iraq. Even more, 77 percent, favor Bush's offer to have the United States hold off attacking if Iraq agrees to readmit United Nations weapons inspectors. And if Iraq interferes with those inspectors, support for military action advances to 81 percent.

Crucially, moreover, the number of Americans who say the president has a clear policy on Iraq has soared by 20 points, from 40 percent late last month to 60 percent now. Bush addressed the U.N. General Assembly on Iraq last Thursday.

Approval of Bush's overall handling of the situation has gained 13 points, to 65 percent; many of those who'd been undecided seem to have come down on his side. There's been a 12-point rise in those who call it "very" important for the United States to oust Saddam Hussein, to 68 percent. And the number of Americans who say the risk of inaction is greater than the risk of military action is up by eight points, to 55 percent.


Measuring Support: Now vs. Aug. 29
NowAug. 29
Think Bush has a clear policy on Iraq 60% 40%
Approve of Bush's handling of the situation 65% 52%
"Very important" to oust Saddam 68% 56%
Support U.S. military action against Iraq 68% 56%
Support delaying it for weapons inspections 77% n.a.
Support attacking if inspections are blocked 81% n.a.

Additionally, 73 percent believe the administration is either accurately describing the threat the United States faces from Iraq (45 percent) or — even with the vivid language used — understating it (28 percent). Only about a quarter think the threat is overstated.

Fall Off

While 68 percent now support the general proposal of U.S. military action against Iraq to oust Saddam, this falls off sharply, to 51 percent, if U.S. allies are opposed. That's more support for unilateral action than late last month, but still far short of broadly held support.

Fifty-four percent say Bush has done enough to win the support of other countries, but 41 percent think not. And half the public says Bush should present more evidence showing why the United States should use military force to overthrow Saddam's regime.

Support for using U.S. ground troops to invade Iraq is 10 points lower than support for attacking in general, at 58 percent. And this declines, to 41 percent, if it means a high-casualty ground war.

Public tolerance for casualties is premised on the level of perceived threat; far more Americans (two-thirds) expressed willingness to accept high casualties last fall, on the question of military action against groups or nations responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks.

Threat and Clarity

A look at subgroups shows the extent to which a sense of clear policy, a sense of threat and, secondarily, allied support all underpin support for military action.

Support for attacking Iraq to oust Saddam is 83 percent among those who think Bush has a clear policy, compared to 44 percent of those who think not. And it's 85 percent among those who think Bush is accurately describing the threat, compared to 28 percent among those who think the threat is overstated.

Similarly, support for attacking is 83 percent among those call it "very important" to oust Saddam. It's 89 percent among those who think inaction is the bigger risk. And it's 79 percent among those who think Bush has done enough to win allied support, compared to 54 percent of those who think not.


Percentage Support for Differing Options
  Attacking Attacking w/o allied supportInvading w/ground troopsInvading, if high casualties
All 68% 51% 58% 41%
Bush policy:        
   Clear 83 66 73 54
   Not clear 44 27 33 21
Threat is:        
   Accurate 85 65 72 52
   Understated 76 59 63 44
   Overstated 28 16 25 16
Ousting Saddam:        
   Very important 83 67 72 52
   Somewhat important 46 22 34 20
Greater Risk:        
   Action 39 23 33 21
   Inaction 89 70 74 54
Done enough to win allied support:        
   Yes 79 62 70 53
   No 54 36 43 28

Trend

Movement in Bush's direction on the basic question of attacking Iraq took place before his U.N. speech. Support for military action fell from 69 percent in an Aug. 11 poll to 56 percent on Aug. 29, then rebounded to 64 percent in a Washington Post poll completed Sept. 6. Again, it's 68 percent in this poll.

Others have tracked a similar course. A Gallup poll question, which specifies the use of ground troops, showed support slipping from 61 percent in June to 53 percent Aug. 21, then recovering to 58 percent Sept. 4.

Groups

It's Democrats and independents who've been moving on the issue; support for attacking Iraq fell in these groups in late August, and rebounded here. Views have held steadier among Republicans, among whom Bush enjoys enormous approval ratings.

Sizable majorities of men and women alike support military action — 72 percent of men, and 65 percent of women. Support for a high-casualty ground war is much lower in both groups — 46 percent of men, 36 percent of women.

There are differences between racial groups: Seventy-one percent of whites favor military action; that declines to 56 percent of nonwhites. And 69 percent of whites approve of Bush's handling of the situation; this falls among nonwhites to 47 percent.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 12-14, 2002, among a random national sample of 760 adults. The results have a 3.5-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Penn.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our PollVault.

 
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