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A Sober Response After Saddam's Capture, Most Say Difficult Challenges Remain Analysis by Gary Langer ABCNEWS.com Dec. 15 Sober realism tempers higher hopes in the American public's reaction to the capture of Saddam Hussein. While most say it should help bring greater security to Iraq and the U.S. forces there, precious few say it marks an end to the difficulties the United States faces. |
| Ninety percent in an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll say major challenges still confront the United States in Iraq. Nearly as many, eight in 10, say the work is by no means done that U.S. forces need to remain in place until a stable government is created. The capture produced no boost in the number of Americans who say the Iraq war was worth fighting, a modest 53 percent. And even with Saddam's apprehension, just 14 percent say the war is going better than they expected for the United States; nearly twice as many, 27 percent, say it's going worse. Nonetheless, most see the capture as a sign of better fortune. Nearly two-thirds say it should help end attacks on U.S. and coalition forces, and should contribute more broadly to the long-term security of the United States. Seven in 10 say it should help produce long-term stability in the region. And there's agreement especially on the benefit to the Iraqi people: Eighty-one percent of Americans believe Saddam's capture will help restore peace and stability to their country. While positive, these assessments are measured ones. Far fewer Americans think Saddam's capture will help "a great deal" in achieving any of these goals. The most, 39 percent, think it will do a great deal to restore peace and stability to Iraq; the fewest, 15 percent, think the capture will do a great deal to end attacks on U.S. and coalition military forces. Bush Gets a Lift News of the capture spread almost universally: By Sunday evening 95 percent of Americans said they'd heard about it. And it did produce a boost in assessments of President Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq 58 percent now approve, up 10 points since mid-November to the most since July, when Bush's ratings began to slide in the face of attacks on U.S. forces and a sense the administration lacked a clear plan on how to proceed. Bush's approval rating on handling Iraq remains below its levels last spring and early summer. And his overall job approval rating didn't show a significant gain it's 57 percent in this poll, compared with 53 percent in an ABC/Post poll Dec. 7. Still, the number who "strongly" approve of Bush's work, 37 percent, is now its highest since August, up seven points from its post-Sept. 11, 2001, low in late October. Views of War Get No Bounce The capture produced no significant gain overall in the number of Americans who say the war against terrorism is going well 65 percent, compared with 62 percent in late October. (More, however, say it's going "very well" 17 percent, up nine points.) As noted, 53 percent say that considering the cost versus the benefits, the war was worth fighting essentially unchanged since mid-October, and down from 70 percent as the main fighting ended last spring. (There's a difference between the sexes: Men say the war was worth fighting, by 57-38 percent; women divide more narrowly, 49-45 percent.) Some of these views are highly partisan. Three-quarters of Republicans say the war was worth fighting; this slides to half of independents and a third of Democrats. More than eight in 10 Republicans say the campaign against terrorism is going well; that drops to six in 10 independents and about half of Democrats. And Bush's job approval is 44 points higher among Republicans than it is among Democrats. Despite those differences, more than seven in 10 Republicans, Democrats and independents alike agree that U.S. forces need to stay in Iraq until a stable government is in place. And nine in 10 agree, across partisan lines, that big challenges remain for the United States in Iraq. Trial and Punishment In terms of Saddam's future, the public prefers trying him before a U.N.-run international tribunal rather than an Iraqi court, by a 52-39 percent margin. This could reflect public doubt about Iraqi institutions at this stage. Respondents were not told of the administration's plans for an Iraqi-run trial. Whatever the venue, if Saddam is convicted of war crimes, 60 percent of Americans say they'd prefer he receive the death penalty rather than a life sentence with no chance of parole. METHODOLOGY This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 14, among a random national sample of 506 adults. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.
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