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A decline in ratings of the buying climate is largely at fault for the dip. Forty-eight percent of Americans now say it’s a good time to buy things, the smallest percentage since June and 9 points below the high established in January.
Still, that’s 10 points above average.
And other indicators are especially strong — three-quarters of Americans say the economy is good, 5 points from the record high; and two-thirds rate their own finances positively, 4 points off the record.
Consumer Confidence Since Dec. 1985: |
| |
Today |
Highest |
Lowest |
Average |
National
Economy |
75% |
80% |
7% |
41% |
Personal
Finances |
66% |
70% |
42% |
57% |
| Buying Climate |
48% |
57% |
20% |
38% |
|
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INDEX — The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on these ratings, stands at +26 on its scale of +100 to -100, down 3 points from last week. The index has averaged +29 this year, a point above its record 1999 average. Its lifetime average is -10, depressed by recession in the early 1990s.
ABCNEWS/Money Index
|
| Today
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+26 |
| Last week
|
+29 |
| Jan. 16, 2000
|
+38 Record high |
| 2000 average
|
+29 |
| 1999 average
|
+28 Best full year |
| 1992 average
|
- 44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992
|
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85
|
-10
|
|
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A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans: The index is +57 in higher-income households compared to -13 in the lowest; +51 among college graduates but -19 among high-school dropouts; +32 among whites but -9 among blacks; +36 among men but +17 among women.
Here’s a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — The poll asks: Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? Seventy-five percent of Americans rate the nation’s economy as excellent or good, down a point from last week. The best was 80 percent on Jan. 16. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — The poll asks: Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? Sixty-six percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, down 2 points from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — The poll asks: Considering the cost of things today and your own personal finances, would you say now is an excellent time, a good time, a not-so-good time or a poor time to buy the things you want and need? Forty-eight percent say it’s an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, down 2 points from last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week’s results are based on 1,027 interviews in the week ending Oct. 29 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABC/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by 3. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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