The ABCNEWS/Money Consumer Comfort Index, based on these views, now stands at +7 on its scale of -100 to +100. It's up from +1 at the end of May, its first positive trend of the year. But it's well down from +23 at the start of the year, and a record +38 in January 2000.

Consumer views clearly are not out of the woods: A new ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll completed Monday finds that 52 percent of Americans think the economy is heading into a recession, up seven points since April.

Ratings of the Economy
	7/29/01	1/7/01	Record high	15-year average
National Economy	51%	71%	80%	41%
Buying Climate	43%	47%	57%	38%
Personal Finances	66%	66%	70%	57%

The index has had a tough year, falling seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in one week in February, five points in one week in March and another five points in one week in April. Nonetheless, given their high starting point, all three gauges are still above their 15-year averages.

 Interactive Look at Confidence Data

ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today	+ 7
May 27, 2001	+ 1
Jan. 7, 2001	+23
Jan. 16, 2000	+38 Record high
2000 average	+29  Best full year
1992 average	- 44  Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992	- 50  Record low
Average since 12/85	- 8

A Closer Look

As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +37 in higher-income households compared to -38 in the lowest, +23 among college graduates while -24 among high-school dropouts and +12 among whites but -19 among blacks.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money index:

  NATIONAL ECONOMY — Fifty-one percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

  PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-six percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, up one point from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

  BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-three percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, the same as last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

Methodology

The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,026 interviews in the month ending July 29, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.