The decline is driven largely by negative ratings of the economy, which gained six points over the last month to reach their highest level in nearly five years.
By 55-45 percent, Americans now say the national economy's in bad shape, the most since November 1996. That's up a whopping 35 points since January 2000, and up 26 points this year alone. It's still better than its 15-year average in this weekly poll, but by a mere three points.
This faltering view of the economy, combined with already tepid ratings of the buying climate (41 percent positive this week), have dropped the ABCNEWS/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index to 0 on its scale of +100 to -100. That's down seven points in just three weeks, and the first time the index has fallen out of the positive zone since May 1997.
The ABC/Money Index has averaged +7 this year, compared to annual averages between +24 and +29 the previous three years.
The index's third gauge — ratings of personal finances — continues to be relatively strong, keeping overall confidence from dropping even lower. Sixty-four percent rate their own finances positively, six points off its peak.
Positive Ratings of the Economy |
| |
9/02/01 |
1/7/01 |
Record high |
15-year average |
| National Economy |
45% |
71% |
80% |
42% |
| Buying Climate |
41% |
47% |
57% |
38% |
| Personal Finances |
64% |
66% |
70% |
57% |
|
|
Confidence has had a tough year: The index fell seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in one week in February, five points in one week in March and another five points in one week in April. Now it's lost another seven points in the last three weeks.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
0 |
| Aug. 12 |
+ 7 |
| May 27, 2001 |
+ 1 |
| Jan.
7, 2001 |
+23 |
| 2001 Average |
+ 7 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+38
Record high |
| 2000
average |
+29
Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +26 in higher-income households compared to -49 in the lowest, +13 among college graduates while -36 among high-school dropouts, +4 among whites but -31 among blacks and +7 among men while -8 among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money index:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Forty-five percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down four points from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-four percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-one percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, unchanged from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,012 interviews in the month ending Sept. 2 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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