MORE ON THIS STORY
	FULL COVERAGE
• America Attacked
• Poll Vault: ABCNEWS 2001 Poll Archives
	IN DETAIL
• Consumer Confidence
	RELATED STORIES
• Poll: Confidence at 4-Year Low
• Poll: Confidence Weakens

Forty-six percent of Americans now say the national economy is in good shape, a three-point gain since last week. That's a glimmer of good news because this gauge had been dropping, and had hit its lowest point since November 1996. Still, this gauge is down 25 points this year.

The 15-year-old weekly poll is based on a four-week rolling average. Today's report includes one week's worth of interviews from last Wednesday through Sunday (after the terrorist attacks), plus interviews from the three previous weeks. The most recent data, collected after the attacks, is more positive than the month-old data that were rolled out of the index.

Pessimism Hasn’t Deepened Since Attacks

All interviews were conducted before the Dow's record point-drop Monday. Steep drops in the stock market historically have not had much of an impact on consumer confidence. Still there are concerns about how an already weakened economy will be affected by the attacks, and early Monday the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the eighth time this year. Consumers bear watching in the weeks ahead.

There's pessimism about the future of the nation's economy, but again, it's changed little since the attacks.

Forty-four percent now say the economy's getting worse; it was 46 percent last month. Just 9 percent think the economy is getting better, down from 16 percent last month. But optimists have been few and far between in general this year, primarily in the low teens. (Half of the data for this question were collected before and half after the attacks. The findings for the two weeks were similar.)

Economy Is …
	Getting better	Getting worse	Staying the same
9/16/01	09%	44%	46%
8/12/01	16%	46%	38%

This comports with last week's ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll findings on recession. Though pessimism predominates, it didn't get markedly worse after the attacks. Late last week, 58 percent of Americans thought the nation was headed for a recession; up from 53 percent the week before.

Positive Ratings of the Economy
	9/17/01	1/7/01	Record high	15-year average
National Economy	46%	71%	80%	42%
Buying Climate	40%	47%	57%	38%
Personal Finances	62%	66%	70%	57%

The ABCNEWS/Money Index, based on ratings of personal finances, the national economy and the buying climate, is up three points since last week. This uptick reverses a four-week slide leading up to the attacks. But it still remains down at levels last seen in 1997.

ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today	-1
Last week	- 4
May 27, 2001	+ 1
Jan. 7, 2001	+23
2001 Average	+ 7
Jan. 16, 2000	+38 Record high
2000 average	+29  Best full year
1992 average	- 44  Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992	- 50  Record low
Average since 12/85	- 8

A Closer Look

As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +22 in higher-income households but -36 in the lowest, +13 among college graduates while -37 among high-school dropouts, +2 among whites but -24 among blacks and +2 among men while -4 among women..

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money index:

  NATIONAL ECONOMY — Forty-six percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, up three points from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

  PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, up one point from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

  BUYING CLIMATE — Forty percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, unchanged from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

Methodology

The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,010 interviews in the month ending Sept. 16 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.