Just 39 percent of Americans rate the economy positively, unchanged from last week at the fewest since August 1996. Forty-four percent call it a good time to spend money. But 62 percent say their own finances are good, suggesting that personal incomes and low interest rates continue buoy confidence.
The ABC/Money Consumer Comfort Index, based on these gauges, stands at -3 on its scale of +100 to -100, unchanged from last week. It bottomed out this year at -4 just before the Sept.11 terrorist attacks, then rallied before falling back last week.
Positive ratings of the economy dropped six points last week and are now a huge 32 points below their level at the start of the year, as the drumbeat of negative economic news has taken a toll. But the other two ABC/Money gauges have held steadier, each just a few points lower than they were in January.
While low inflation likely propped up ratings of the buying climate, gasoline prices bear watching — they were largely responsible for a 0.4 percent rise in the Consumer Price Index for September, the largest gain since May.
Another important element of confidence, interest rates, have been lowered twice since Sept. 11 by the Federal Reserve in an effort to bolster the economy.
The ABC/Money index started the year at +23. The gauge fell seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in one week in February, five points in one week in March and another five points in one week in April. The index reversed another slide to gain ground following the Sept. 11 attacks, before losing another five points last week.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
- 3 |
| Last week |
- 3 |
| Sept. 9 |
- 4 |
| Jan.
7, 2001 |
+ 23 |
| 2001 Average |
+ 7 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+ 38
Record high |
| 2000
average |
+ 29
Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +16 in higher-income households compared to -26 in the lowest, +5 among college graduates while -19 among high-school dropouts, +4 among whites but -37 among blacks and +1 among men while -7 among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money poll:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-nine percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-four percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, unchanged from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,030 interviews in the month ending Oct. 21 and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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