Ratings of the buying climate are the reason: They advanced a bit over the last month, with 47 percent of Americans now calling it a good time to spend money — up seven points this fall and four points above its average so far this year.
Ratings of personal finances are better still, at 62 percent positive — just a point off the 2001 average and within the narrow band it's occupied all year. The problem remains views of the national economy: Just 36 percent say it's in good shape, down 10 points since September and down 35 points this year.
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on these views, stands at -3 on its scale of +100 to -100 in interviews the past month. That's slightly higher than its October reading, -5, which was its lowest since March 1997. (The index is updated weekly; the first release each month reflects the previous full month's results.)
The index has lost ground in seven out of the last 11 months, including a steep decline late last winter when the current recession officially began. It bumped up in July but began to slide again leading into the Sept. 11 attacks. Confidence bounced back following the attacks, then slipped again in October.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
-3 |
| Last week |
-2 |
| Oct. 14 |
-3 |
| Oct. 7 |
+2 |
| Sept.
9 |
-4
|
| Jan.
7 |
+23
|
| 2001
Average |
+ 5 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+
38 Record high |
| 2000
average |
+
29 Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
Even with this year's decline, confidence is much higher than it was at the start of the last recession, -25 in July 1990. One reason is that factors affecting consumers directly, such as personal income, interest rates and inflation, have all remained in good shape.
But data released by the Commerce Department this week showed some warning signs in October, with personal incomes flat, their worst showing in seven years.
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +20 in higher-income households compared to -46 in the lowest, +7 among college graduates while -25 among high-school dropouts, and +4 among men but -10 among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money poll:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-six percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good; it was 63 percent last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-seven percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need; it was 48 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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