The drop accelerates a trend in which ratings of personal finances recently joined views of the national economy on a downward track. Today 56 percent of Americans say their own finances are good, down from year's high of 67 percent last February. Fewer, just 33 percent, rate the economy positively, steeply down from 71 percent last January.
A third gauge, public views of the buying climate, have held up better, possibly because of holiday sale prices, although not well enough to cheer many retailers. Forty-five percent call it a good time to buy, not far from its 2001 peak of 48 percent.
The ABC/Money Consumer Comfort Index, based on these gauges, now stands at -11 on its scale of +100 to -100, down an unusually sharp five points this week. The index has fallen from +23 at the start of this year and from +38, its record, in January 2000. Its lowest in 16 years of weekly tracking was -50 in February 1992.
This index gauges consumer views of current economic conditions; expectations for the future, measured separately, have been looking brighter (see ABC/Money report of Dec. 9). But this week's data suggest that getting to the future could be a bumpy ride.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
-11 |
| Last week |
-6 |
| Sept. 16 |
-1 |
| Sept.
9 |
-4
|
| Jan.
7 |
+23
|
| 2001
Average |
+ 4 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+
38 Record high |
| 2000
average |
+
29 Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
Interviews for this week's poll were conducted in the month ending Sunday, with 250 interviews a week. The index has no history of movements as large as this week's — up or down — around the Christmas and New Year's holidays.
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +13 in higher-income households compared to -38 in the lowest, +1 among college graduates while -23 among high-school dropouts, -2 among whites but -41 among blacks and +3 among men while -14 among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money poll:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-three percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down four points from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-six percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, down two points from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-five percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, down one point from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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