Just 32 percent of Americans rate the national economy positively, and just 41 percent call it a good time to buy things, down seven points since November. However, more, 57 percent, say their own finances are in good shape.
Dismal ratings of the economy have been dragging confidence down for months; positive views are now 10 points below their 16-year average. Ratings of personal finances are right at their average, and ratings of the buying climate are two points above average.
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on these three gauges, stands at -13 on its scale of +100 to -100 for the third straight week. It last saw this level in August 1996.
Note, the index measures views of current economic conditions. Expectations for the future have been looking brighter since mid-December.
The index averaged +4 in 2001, down from a record setting +29 in 2000 - the largest year-to-year drop since this weekly poll began in late 1985. But it's been far worse, averaging just -44 in 1992.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
-13 |
| Last week |
-13 |
| Jan.
7 |
+23
|
| 2001
Average |
+ 4 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+
38 Record high |
| 2000
average |
+
29 Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
The index fell seven points in one week last January (tying the one-week record), six points in a week in February, five points in a week in March (when the recession officially began) and another five points in one week in April. It reversed another slide to gain ground immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, but then lost five points in mid-October and another five points in a week in December.
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +13 in higher-income households compared to -50 in the lowest, +2 among college graduates while -49 among high-school dropouts, -7 among whites but -42 among blacks and -5 among men while -21 among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money poll:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-two percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, up one point from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-seven percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, up a point from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-one percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, down two points from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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