The good news is that ratings of current economic conditions aren't declining. But they're not improving either, staying virtually unchanged since the end of December 2001.
Thirty-three percent of Americans rate the economy positively, close to where it's been all year, but down 13 points since the fall. Somewhat more, 41 percent say now's a good time to buy things, and 58 percent say their own finances are in good shape. Both of these are also about where they've been all year.
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on these three gauges, stands at -12 on its scale of +100 to -100, unchanged from last week. The index has stood at -12 or -13 for the last six weeks.
The index has averaged -8 over its 16-year history. It bottomed out at -50 in 1992, and peaked at +38 in January 2000. Its overall average in 2001 was +4, down from a record setting +29 in 2000 - the largest year-to-year drop this poll has seen. But it's been far worse, averaging just -44 in 1992.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
-12 |
| Last week |
-12 |
| 2001
Average |
+ 4 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+
38 Record high |
| 2000
average |
+
29 Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +12 in higher-income households compared to -44 in the lowest, -3 among college graduates while -39 among high-school dropouts, -7 among whites but -33 among blacks and -3 among men while -21 among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-three percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down one point from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-eight percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-one percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, up one point from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,029 interviews in the month ending Feb. 3, and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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