February 15, 2002
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Confidence Holds Still … Again
Comfort Index Remains Stable for Seven Straight Week


ABCNEWS.com

N E W   Y O R K, Feb. 13 — Consumer confidence seems to have found a comfortable resting spot, remaining in the same place for the seventh consecutive week.


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Poll Vault: ABCNEWS 2001 Poll Archives
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Consumer Comfort Index — Feb. 13
 
The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on ratings of the economy, personal finances and the buying climate, stands at -13 on its scale of +100 to -100. It has been at -13 for five out of the last seven weeks and has stood at -12 or -13 since late December. This is confidence's worst start to a new year since 1996.

Ratings of the economy and buying climate remain negative: Just 32 percent of Americans rate the economy positively; 40 percent say now's a good time to buy things. On the upside, ratings of personal finances are stronger: 59 percent say their own finances are in good shape.

 TREND — The index has averaged -13 since the start of the year. That's below its all-time average of -8 but still much higher than its worst year, 1992, when it was -44. The index averaged +4 in 2001, down from a record setting +29 in 2000 - the largest year-to-year drop in this poll's history.

 GROUPS — As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +9 in higher-income households compared to -49 in the lowest, -5 among college graduates while -37 among high-school dropouts, -7 among whites but -41 among blacks and -5 among men while -19 among women.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index:

 NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-two percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down one point from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

 PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-nine percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, up one point from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

 BUYING CLIMATE — Forty percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, down one point from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

 METHODOLOGY — The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,029 interviews in the month ending Feb. 10, 2002 and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABC/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

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