February 27, 2002
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Confidence Up Again
Consumer Confidence Advances for the Second Straight Week


ABCNEWS.com

N E W   Y O R K, Feb. 27 — Consumer ratings of current economic conditions bumped up again this week, to their best since mid-December. The improvement follows a gain last week in expectations for the future — two signs that confidence is breaking out of its mid-winter slump.


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Poll Vault: ABCNEWS 2001 Poll Archives
IN DETAIL
Consumer Comfort Index - Feb. 27
 
In terms of current conditions, the ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index has gained six points in the last two weeks. Sixty-two percent of Americans now rate their own finances positively, up six points since the beginning of the year.

While just 35 percent of Americans rate the economy positively, that's up four points since January. In the last component of the ABC/Money index, 42 percent say now's a good time to buy things, essentially unchanged since the start of the year.

The index stands at -7 on its scale of +100 to -100. It was -13 two weeks ago.

Expectations for the future, measured separately, also have been looking brighter: Last week economic pessimism was its lowest in a year and a half. Twenty-seven percent said the economy was "getting worse," down from 48 percent in mid-November.

 TREND — The weekly index has averaged -12 since the start of the year, below its 16-year average of -8 but still much higher than its worst year, 1992, when it averaged -44. The index averaged +4 in 2001, down from a record +29 in 2000 - the largest year-to-year drop in this poll's history.

 GROUPS — As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +15 in higher-income households compared to -50 in the lowest, -1 among college graduates while -29 among high-school dropouts, -2 among whites but -43 among blacks and +4 among men while -17 among women.


ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today -7
Last week -10
Two weeks ago -13
2001 Average + 4
Jan. 16, 2000 + 38 Record high
2000 average + 29  Best full year
1992 average - 44  Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 - 50  Record low
Average since 12/85 - 8

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index:

 NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-five percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, up one point from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

 PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, up one point from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

 BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-two percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, up two points from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

 METHODOLOGY — The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,023 interviews in the month ending Feb. 24, 2002 and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABC/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

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