April 24, 2002
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Confidence Drops Sharply
Decline Is One of Steepest in 16 Years of Polls


ABCNEWS.com

N E W   Y O R K, April 24 — Consumer confidence dropped sharply this week, its steepest decline since just before the start of the 2001 recession — and one of its steepest on record in 16 years of weekly polls.



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Consumer Comfort Index - April 24
 
The ABCNEWS/Money Consumer Comfort Index, based on public views of current economic conditions, fell by six points — only its fifth drop this big in nearly 850 weeks of polls since December 1985. The last drop of this size was on Feb. 25, 2001; the recession began in March.

The decline comes only a month after a rare five-point rise in the index, indicating some volatility in consumer views. Last month's surge in current sentiment followed a steep improvement in consumer expectations; this week's fall in confidence follows a decline in consumer expectations, reported in last week's ABC/Money poll.

Before this week's fall consumers seemed to be shaking off steadily increasing gasoline prices, which in the past have had a negative impact on confidence. But gas price hikes — up 21 percent this year and 12 percent in just the last month — may have taken their toll. There's also continuing unrest in the Middle East, Iraq's threat of an oil embargo and the stock market's still-uneven footing.

The Consumer Comfort Index now stands at -5 on its scale of +100 to -100, down from +1 last week. It's back to its level just before the March advance.

The index is composed of ratings of the current economy, buying climate and personal finances. All three declined this week. Forty-one percent of Americans rate the national economy positively, down three points; 60 percent say their own finances are in good shape, also down three points; and 41 percent say it's a good time to buy things, down four points.

 TREND — The weekly index dropped throughout 2001, starting the year at +23 and finishing it at -13, then began recovering in mid-February this year. It advanced five points the week of March 24, its largest surge since January 1999, and then held steady for a month — until this week's drop.

The index peaked at +38 on Jan. 16, 2000. Its lowest was -50 on Feb. 9, 1992.

 GROUPS — As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +20 in higher-income households compared to -46 in the lowest, +6 among college graduates while -31 among high-school dropouts, 0 among whites but -32 among blacks and +3 among men while -12 among women.


ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today -5
Last week +1
Ten weeks ago -13
2002 Average - 7
2001 Average + 4
Jan. 16, 2000 + 38 Record high
2000 average + 29  Best full year
1992 average - 44  Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 - 50  Record low
Average since 12/85 - 8

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money index:

 NATIONAL ECONOMY — Forty-one percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down three points from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

 PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, down three points from last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

 BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-one percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, down four points from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

 METHODOLOGY — The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,000 interviews in the month ending April 21 and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABC/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

 

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