The ABC/Money index fell six points in one week in mid-January to its lowest since December 1993, and stayed there through Feb. 2. But it's rebounded in more recent interviews, conducted in the last three weeks and as recently as Sunday night.
The index, based on ratings of the economy, personal finances and the buying climate, stands at -19 on its scale of +100 to -100, up from -27 on Feb. 2. After its mid- to late-January stumble, the index is now back to its level at the start of the year.
 INDICES — Thirty percent of Americans now say the economy's in excellent or good shape — still far from a positive rating, but up six points in the last three weeks to its most since September 2002. Thirty-five percent call it a good time to buy things and 56 percent say their own finances are OK, each unchanged from last week.
As reported last week, expectations for the future, measured separately each month, remain glum. Forty-four percent of Americans think the economy is getting worse while just 20 percent think it's improving. The rest, 36 percent, say it's holding steady.
A report yesterday from the Conference Board had consumer confidence at its lowest since October 1993, near the same place the ABC/Money poll had it on Feb. 2. Most of the Conference Board's interviews are collected, by mail, early in the month.
TREND — The ABC/Money index has averaged -9 over its 17-year history, ranging from a high of +38 in January 2000 to a low of -50 in February 1992. Last year it averaged -11, its worst year since 1996.
GROUPS — As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +1 among people in higher-income households compared to -47 in the lowest, -11 among college graduates while -23 among high-school dropouts and -8 among men while -30 among women.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
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Today
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-19
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Three weeks ago
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-27
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2002 High
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+1
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2002 Low
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-23
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2002 Average
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-11
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2001 Average
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+4
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Jan. 16, 2000
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+38 Record high
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2000 average
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+29 Best full year
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1992 average
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-44 Worst full year
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Feb. 9, 1992
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-50 Record low
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Average since 12/85
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-9
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Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money index:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good; it was 28 percent last week. The best was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-six percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Thirty-five percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, unchanged from last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in the autumn of 1990.
METHODOLOGY —The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,003 interviews in the month ending Feb. 23, 2003 and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABC/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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