Ratings of the national economy, personal finances and the buying climate have averaged higher in 1999 than in any year since the weekly ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll began 14 years ago. Even more remarkable is their climb from the pit of the 1990-91 recession.
     Consider: At the end of 1991, just 7 percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape; today 75 percent say so. Just 25 percent called it a good time to buy things; now that’s doubled. And positive ratings of personal finances are up by 18 points.
     These ratings also are well above their 14-year averages, and close to their individual records.
    

ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today	+29
1999 Average	+28 Best full year
1998 average	+24 Previous best year
1992 Average	-44 Worst full year
Average since 12/85	-12
Record High	+32 (1/17, 3/7, 3/14/99)
Record Low	-50 (2/9/92)

     WINGS — Confidence has been soaring for two years, lifted on the wings of the nirvana economy and its rising incomes, low inflation, low interest rates and strong job market. (The stock market, while also a positive factor, seems to be a less immediate element of confidence, because relatively few Americans are active investors who rely on the market for income.)
     Strong confidence in turn has boosted consumer spending, keeping the economy in a “virtuous circle” of sustained growth. This year in particular, confidence rallied in step with the holiday shopping season, to the delight of traditional and online retailers alike.
     POLITICS — Beyond its influence on the economy, consumer confidence also has had extraordinary political impact this decade. Economic discontent turned George Bush out of office in 1992, and enough remained to turn against the Democrats in 1994. The recovery in confidence began in earnest in 1996, earning Bill Clinton a second term then bolstering his public support against impeachment.
     These trends cement the notion that public perceptions of the economy are the single most influential factor in political views. Economic discontent creates angry voters looking to kick over the traces; a strong economy, by contrast, fuels support for the status quo.
     CAP? — Strong as it is, confidence may have hit a ceiling: Despite its record this year, it has lost some steam from last year, when its growth was more explosive. Indeed, confidence is ending 1999 slightly lower than it began the year, the first time that has happened since 1995. Its future course may be critical in the election year ahead.
     It’s worth noting, too, that many millions of Americans have not fully participated in the economy’s growth: A third still rate their own finances negatively.
     INDEX — This poll folds ratings of the economy, buying climate and personal finances into the ABC/Money Consumer Comfort Index, figured on a scale of +100 to -100. It stands this week at +29, compared to +31 when the year began.
     For all of 1999 the index has averaged +28. That compares to a previous record year of +24 last year, and a lifetime average of just -12.
     GROUPS — As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans: The index is +59 in higher-income households compared to -28 in the lowest; +43 among college graduates but -14 among high school dropouts; +35 among whites but -8 among blacks; and +41 among men compared to +17 among women.
     Here’s a closer look at the three components of the index:
     NATIONAL ECONOMY — The poll asks: Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? Seventy-five percent say excellent or good, up one point from last week. The record, 77 percent, was set Jan. 10 and tied in March, April and July. The worst rating was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
     PERSONAL FINANCES — The poll asks: Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? Sixty-six percent say excellent or good, up one point from last week. The record, 70 percent, was set Aug. 30, 1998, and tied this January, June and September. The worst was 42 percent March 14, 1993.
     BUYING CLIMATE — The poll asks: Considering the cost of things today and your own personal finances, would you say now is an excellent time, a good time, a not so good time or a poor time to buy the things you want and need? Fifty-two percent say excellent or good, down two points. The record was set Nov. 29, 1998 and tied Dec. 5; the worst rating, 20 percent, was set in fall 1990.

Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week’s results are based on 1,049 interviews in the month ending Dec. 26 and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Fieldwork by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
     The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.