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	FULL COVERAGE
• America Attacked
• Poll Vault: ABCNEWS 2001 Poll Archives
	IN DETAIL
• Consumer Confidence
	RELATED STORIES
• Poll: Confidence Up After Attacks
• Poll: Confidence at 4-Year Low
• Poll: Confidence Weakens

Similarly, an ABCNEWS/Money magazine poll earlier this week also showed no drop in confidence. In fact it showed a very slight gain. And polling by the Gallup organization last weekend also saw improved economic ratings. Why?

An 'Optimism Rally'

Part of it seems to reflect an "optimism rally" as a feature of the public's broader closing of the ranks. Gallup, somewhat counter-intuitively, also found a post-attack increase in the number of people saying they're "satisfied with the way things are going in this country."

It's also true that declines in the stock market historically have not had a strong or lasting effect on consumer confidence. That's because the vast majority of investors are in the market for the long-term and don't rely on it for ready cash.

Fears of layoffs also don't have much effect on confidence, because even in bad times very few people get laid off as a percentage of the entire population. An NBC News poll Thursday night found that fewer than two in 10 Americans are worried they or someone in their family will lose their job.

What does affect consumer confidence most strongly are personal income, interest rates and inflation, and none of those has changed for the worse in the last week and a half.

At the same time, a broadly declining economic outlook does affect confidence, and indeed has pushed it down substantially this year.

If the attacks tip the economy into recession as a result of decreased business activity, travel and the like, confidence almost certainly will follow.

But at this point it does seem to be following, not leading, unlike the summer of 1990, when falling consumer confidence led the way to recession.

ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

Gary Langer is ABCNEWS' director of polling