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Consumer Comfort Index
Latest Consumer Comfort Index reading. (ABCNEWS.com)
Confidence Reaches Four-Month Low
Consumer Confidence Continues to Fall After Record-Tying Drop in February

Analysis
By Dalia Sussman

ABCNEWS.com

N E W  Y O R K, March 10 — Discouraging economic news including near-record gasoline prices and a still-weak job market are taking a toll on consumer confidence: It starts off March at a four-month low.

The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on current ratings of the national economy, buying climate and personal finances, stands at -18 on its scale of +100 to -100. The index has lost five points in the last two weeks on top of a seven-point drop — matching its steepest on record — the week of Feb. 15.

From a recent high of -3 in January the index has retreated to its lowest since Nov. 9, after a short-lived recovery in the late fall and early winter.

The job market isn’t helping (the government reported last week that long-term unemployment in 2003 was its highest in two decades) and neither are gasoline prices. The Energy Department says the national average for a gallon is just a penny shy of its record high, up 22 cents since the start of the year, to $1.74. Confidence has been sensitive to gas prices before, and now may be no exception.

 INDEX — Just 31 percent of Americans now say the economy’s in good shape, down 13 points since mid-January and nine points below its long-term average in this 18-year-old weekly survey. Thirty-seven percent call it a good time to buy things, down six points since January; and 55 percent say their own finances are OK, compared with 59 percent in January. Both are two points off their averages.

Economic discontent is further echoed in a recent ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll. The economy is the public’s single most important election issue, and 59 percent disapprove of the way President Bush has handled it — a career high.

 TREND — At -18, the ABC/Money index is nine points below its long-term average, -9. It inched above average at the start of the year and held there before its Feb. 15 plunge. The last two times the index fell so steeply, in 1990 and 2001, recessions followed.

 GROUPS — As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +18 among higher-income people while -60 among those with the lowest incomes, -3 among college graduates while -52 among high-school dropouts, -15 among whites but -30 among blacks and -10 among men while -26 among women.

Huge partisan differences continue. The index is +32 among Republicans, -24 among independents and -43 among Democrats.



ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today -18
Last week -16
Last month -6
2003 Low -28
2003 Average -19
2002 Average -11
2001 Average +4
Jan. 16, 2000 +38 Record high
2000 average +29 Best full year
1992 average -44 Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 -50 Record low
Average since 12/85 -9

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money index:

 NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-one percent of Americans rate the nation’s economy as excellent or good; it was 33 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

 PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-five percent rate their own finances as excellent or good; it was 56 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, and matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

 BUYING CLIMATE — Thirty-seven percent say it’s an excellent or good time to buy things, unchanged from last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

 METHODOLOGY — The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week’s results are based on 1,000 interviews in the month ending March 7, and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

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