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Consumer Confidence
Robust Gain
Consumer Confidence Gets a Strong Boost

Analysis
By Dalia Sussman

ABCNEWS.com

N E W  Y O R K, April 28 — Consumer confidence advanced smartly this week, rebounding from a dip last week to reach its best level since February.

The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index gained four points to -13 on its scale of +100 to -100. One-week boosts that big are unusual; they’ve occurred just 54 times in 957 weeks (more than 18 years) of weekly polls.

Despite the increase, the index is still below its long-term average, -9, and further below its high this year, -3. But it has been trending in the right direction lately, up nine points in the last six weeks.

The ABC/Money index is based on views of the current economy, personal finances and the buying climate. Thirty-six percent say the economy’s in good shape — hardly ebullient, but the best since mid-February. Thirty-nine percent say it’s a good time to buy things, matching the 18-year average despite rising food prices and record gas prices. And 56 percent say their own finances are OK, one point below average.

Improving confidence can have political as well as economic implications, especially in an election year. George W. Bush’s performance ratings stabilized, and his standing against John Kerry improved, in an ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll last week, conducted after a period of difficulties in Iraq, but better economic views at home.

 TREND — Confidence has had an unsettled year. The ABC/Money index started the year at -7 and reached -3 in mid-January, a 21-month high. But it then dropped, bottoming out at -22 by mid-March. It started to rebound, gaining eight points in four weeks, before slipping back last week. This week’s advance puts it back to its mid-February level.

At -13, the ABC/Money index is 51 points off its record high set in January 2000. At the same time, it’s far from its worst, -50 in February 1992.

 GROUPS — Confidence, as usual, is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +16 among higher-income people while -52 among those with the lowest incomes. It’s -3 among college graduates while -38 among high-school dropouts, and -6 among whites but -40 among blacks.

Regionally, the index continues to do best in the South (-1, a 12-month high) and worst in the Northeast (-24). And there are still vast partisan differences, with the index at +34 among Republicans compared with -29 among independents and -38 among Democrats.



ABCNEWS/Money Index
Today -13
Last week -17
Three months ago -5
2003 Low -28
2003 Average -19
2002 Average -11
2001 Average +4
Jan. 16, 2000 +38 Record high
2000 average +29 Best full year
1992 average -44 Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 -50 Record low
Average since 12/85 -9

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money index:

 NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-six percent of Americans rate the nation’s economy as excellent or good; it was 33 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

 PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-six percent rate their own finances as excellent or good; it was 54 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, and matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

 BUYING CLIMATE — Thirty-nine percent say it’s an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 36 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

 METHODOLOGY — The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week’s results are based on 1,000 interviews in the month ending April 25, 2004, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

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