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Consumer Confidence
Confidence Nears 2004 Low
Slide Comes Amid Rising Consumer Prices

Analysis
By David Morris

ABCNEWS.com

N E W  Y O R K, June 16 — Americans’ views of their personal finances and the buying climate are at or near one-year lows, bringing consumer confidence close to its worst of 2004 in the face of rising consumer prices.

The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index stands at -20 on its scale of +100 to -100. While essentially unchanged from -19 last week, the index has dropped nine points in a month, and is now just two points off its low for the year, -22 in mid-March. It’s 11 points under its long-term average, -9 in weekly polls since 1985.

Fifty-two percent of Americans say their personal finances are in good shape, the fewest since last July and down six points in a month. And just 34 percent say it’s a good time to buy things, matching the lowest since March 2003 for the third straight week. As many, 34 percent, have positive views of the national economy, six points below average.

The recent slide in confidence came as food prices climbed and gasoline topped $2 a gallon. While gas prices dropped by four cents a gallon this week, the government said Tuesday the Consumer Price Index, a leading inflation gauge, had its biggest jump last month in more than three years.

 EXPECTATIONS — Expectations for the future direction of the economy, measured separately, are edging upward but remain glum. Just 28 percent think the economy’s improving — five points higher than it was three months ago, but still six points below its high for the year, 34 percent in January.

Thirty-eight percent think the economy’s getting worse and another 34 percent say it’s staying about the same.

 TREND — The ABC/Money index is down 17 points since reaching its high for the year, -3, in mid-January. It’s been as high as +38 in January 2000 and as low as -50 in February 1992. Its best annual average was +29 in 2000; its worst, -44 in 1992.

Last year the index averaged -19, its worst year since 1994; this year it’s averaged -13 to date (slipping to -16 since mid-February).

 GROUPS — Confidence, as usual, is best among better-off Americans. The index is +10 among higher-income people while -61 among those with the lowest incomes. It’s 0 among college graduates while -60 among high-school dropouts, -14 among whites while -51 among blacks and -13 among men but -26 among women. At -9, it’s best in the West.

A partisan gulf also remains. The index is +20 among Republicans, but -21 among independents and -43 among Democrats.



ABC News/Money Index
Today -20
Last week -19
Four weeks ago -11
2003 Low -28
2003 Average -19
2002 Average -11
2001 Average +4
Jan. 16, 2000 +38 Record high
2000 average +29 Best full year
1992 average -44 Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992 -50 Record low
Average since 12/85 -9

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC News/Money index:

 NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-four percent of Americans rate the nation’s economy as excellent or good; it was 33 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

 PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good; it was 54 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, and matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

 BUYING CLIMATE — Thirty-four percent say it’s an excellent or good time to buy things, the same as last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

 METHODOLOGY — The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week’s results are based on 1,000 interviews in the four weeks ending June 13, 2004, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. The expectations question was asked of 500 respondents June 2-13; that result has a 4.5-point margin of error. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABC News/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABC News polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

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