Independents, the quintessential swing group in politics, settle almost precisely between the two partisan extremes, but much nearer their 12-month high than their 12-month low. Overall, consumer confidence remains its highest in five months.

After a sharp three-week rally in June, the ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index stands at -7 on its scale of +100 to -100, the same as last week and essentially flat this month. It’s very close to its long-term average, -9, since this weekly survey began in late 1985. By contrast, the index was at a near-record low, -47, at this time in 1992, the year broad economic discontent forced George W. Bush’s father from office.

 INDEX — The index is based on Americans’ ratings of their personal finances, the buying climate and the national economy. This week 42 percent say the economy’s in good shape, the most since late January, and 41 percent call it a good time to buy things, a point off its best since early February. Most, 57 percent, say their own finances are OK.

 PARTY TIME — A week before the Democratic National Convention, there are huge differences in consumer views among political groups. The index stands at -47 among Democrats, its lowest since November 1993, but at +43 among Republicans, matching its highest since November 2000. It’s -10 among independents, compared to a recent high of -2 in January.

Differences between these groups are customary, but the polarization is far greater now than usual. On average since mid-1990, the index has been +8 among Republicans while -17 among Democrats, a 25-point gap compared to today’s huge 90-point gap.

The confidence index is far lower than its level, +17, when Bush took office. At that point — just before the start of recession in March 2001 — it was positive among Republicans (+27), Democrats (+18) and independents (+6) alike.

 TREND — The ABC/Money index has been as high as +38 in January 2000 and as low as -50 in February 1992. Its best annual average was +29 in 2000; its worst, -44 in 1992. Last year it averaged -19, its worst year since 1994. This year’s average to date is -13.

 EXPECTATIONS — Separate from the weekly index of current economic views, this survey checks expectations for the future. More Americans say the economy is getting worse (36 percent) than say it’s improving (29 percent), essentially unchanged from last month. While that’s better than the 42-23 percent division in March, it’s not as good as it was in January, when economic optimists outnumbered pessimists by seven points.

Naturally, there’s a huge gap between political groups here as well. Fifty-three percent of Republicans think the economy is improving; 48 percent of Democrats say it’s getting worse.

 GROUPS — Confidence, as usual, is best among better-off Americans. The index is +21 among higher-income people while -54 among those with the lowest incomes. It’s +9 among college graduates while -49 among high-school dropouts, 0 among whites but -48 among blacks and +5 among men while -17 among women.

ABC News/Money Index
Today	-7
Last week	-7
Five weeks ago	-20
2003 Low	-28
2003 Average	-19
2002 Average	-11
2001 Average	+4
Jan. 16, 2000	+38 Record high
2000 average	+29 Best full year
1992 average	-44 Worst full year
Feb. 9, 1992	-50 Record low
Average since 12/85	-9

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC News/Money index:

 NATIONAL ECONOMY — Forty-two percent of Americans rate the nation’s economy as excellent or good, compared with 41 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

 PERSONAL FINANCES — Fifty-seven percent rate their own finances as excellent or good; it was 56 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, and matched in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

 BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-one percent say it’s an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 42 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in fall 1990.

 METHODOLOGY — The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week’s results are based on 1,000 interviews in the four weeks ending July 18 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The expectations question was asked of 500 respondents July 7-18; that result has a 4.5-point margin of error. Field work was conducted by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.

The ABC News/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.

Previous ABC News polls can be found in our Poll Vault.