But all is not lost: Consumer views, like a variety of economic indicators, continue to deliver a mixed message. While views of the economy are weak — 17 points below their average for the year — Americans' ratings of their own finances and the buying climate have held much steadier, each just a point or two off the 2001 average.
And even the economy rating has been much worse, just 7 percent positive in the aftermath of the last recession.
These views reflect the decidedly unsettled state of the nation's economy. Clearly the economy has soured, corporate earnings are off and the job market has weakened markedly. But inflation and interest rates remain low, gasoline prices have tumbled and incomes have held up.
The ABCNEWS/Money Consumer Comfort index, based on these gauges, stands at -5 on its scale of +100 to -100, matching its lowest since March 1997. But it's holding much better than it was at the start of the last recession, -25 in July 1990, and far above its all-time low, -50 in February 1992. It also continues to stay just above its lifetime average of -8.
ABCNEWS/Money Index |
| Today |
-5 |
| Last week |
- 4 |
| Oct. 14 |
-3 |
| Oct. 7 |
+2 |
| Sept.
9 |
-4
|
| Jan.
7 |
+23
|
| 2001
Average |
+ 5 |
| Jan.
16, 2000 |
+
38 Record high |
| 2000
average |
+
29 Best full year |
| 1992
average |
-
44 Worst full year |
| Feb. 9, 1992 |
- 50 Record low |
| Average since 12/85 |
- 8 |
| |
Confidence has been falling more or less all year, from a high of +23 last Jan. 7. The index lost seven points in one week in January (tying the one-week record), six points in a week in February, five points in a week in March and another five points in one week in April. It reversed another slide to gain ground immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, but then lost another five points the week of Oct. 14.
A Closer Look
As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +17 in higher-income households compared to -40 in the lowest, +6 among college graduates while -29 among high-school dropouts, and -1 among men but -9 among women.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABCNEWS/Money poll:
NATIONAL ECONOMY — Thirty-five percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down two points from last week. The best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.
PERSONAL FINANCES — Sixty-two percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 70 percent, set Aug. 30, 1998, and last matched in January 2000. The worst rating was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.
BUYING CLIMATE — Forty-five percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things they want and need, unchanged. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent in the fall of 1990.
Methodology
The ABCNEWS/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,034 interviews in the month ending Oct. 28 and have an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was done by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
The ABCNEWS/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to each index question is subtracted from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.
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