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  November 23, 2009
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Common Ground
Most Americans Want to Know Supreme Court Nominees’ Views On Abortion

Analysis
By David Morris

ABCNEWS.com

June 19— Opponents and supporters of legal abortion share some common ground: Three-quarters in both groups say any nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court should disclose his or her position on the issue before the Senate holds a confirmation vote.

Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS Intersearch.

As far as what that position should be, the issue remains a divisive one: 50 percent of Americans want a nominee who favors legal abortion, while 43 percent want the next justice to oppose it. The court's next member could be a swing vote on abortion.

There's less division on two other possible litmus tests: 56 percent say he or she should favor giving the states more authority than the federal government. And 60 percent say the next justice should try to follow the original intent of the framers of the U.S. Constitution, rather than interpreting what it means in current times.

There's been speculation recently that one or more members of the nine-member court might retire in the next few weeks, at the end of its current term. The court has upheld abortion rulings and decided other controversial issues by 5-4 votes, so any change in its makeup could have a dramatic impact.

Legal or Illegal?

Seventy-three percent of Americans say the next nominee should disclose his or her position about abortion. That includes 75 percent of those who say abortion should be generally legal, and 73 percent of those who say it should be generally illegal.

Support for disclosure is broad, including majorities across age, income and education categories. And 57 percent feel strongly about it, including roughly equal numbers of people who favor legal abortion and who oppose it.

As noted, 50 percent of Americans say the next nominee should favor legal abortion in all or most cases, while 43 percent say the opposite. Most such views are firm: 69 percent of Americans feel strongly about it, including equal numbers of abortion supporters and opponents.

There's a slight difference between the sexes — 52 percent of women want a nominee who's generally in favor of legal abortion, compared with 47 percent of men. About 43 percent in both groups want one who's opposed.

There's a little greater intensity of feeling on the pro-abortion rights side among women than among men — 37 percent of women "strongly" prefer a nominee who favors legal abortion, compared with 31 percent of men. About the same number of women and men (33 percent and 36 percent respectively) strongly prefer an abortion opponent.


The Nominee's Views
The Nominee Should All Women Men Women "strongly" Men "strongly"
Favor Legal Abortion 50% 52 47 37 31
Oppose Legal Abortion 43 43 44 33 36

Preference for an anti-abortion nominee runs highest among political conservatives (63 percent), evangelical white Protestants (59 percent) and Republicans (58 percent, including roughly equal numbers of men and women). All are core support groups for President Bush.

But the equation may change if Bush seeks a nominee who appeals to the center. Moderates favor a pro-abortion rights nominee by 55 percent to 39 percent; independents — the key swing group in politics — by 53 precent to 38 percent. White Catholics, another swing group, divide evenly. (Preference for a nominee who supports legal abortion is highest among liberals, Democrats and the nonreligious.)


The Nominee Should Be:
 Pro-abortion rightsAnti-abortion
All 50% 43
Men 47 44
Women 52 43
Republicans 35 58
Independents 53 38
Democrats 59 36
Conservatives 31 63
Moderates 55 39
Liberals 72 24
Evangelical
        White Protestants 36 59
        White Catholics 47 47
No religion 76 19

State vs. Fed

As noted above, when it comes to the balance of power, Americans prefer a nominee who tilts in favor of states rights — as the court itself has done lately.

Fifty-six percent say the nominee should favor giving states more authority than the federal government, while 31 percent say the nominee should favor giving more power to the federal government. Preference for state authority is broadest among conservatives (64 percent), compared with moderates (56 percent) or liberals (46 percent).

Most Americans also want the next nominee to try to follow the original intent of framers of the U.S. Constitution: Sixty percent prefer "someone who tries to follow the original intent" of the Constitution, compared with 34 percent who prefer "someone who tries to follow an interpretation of what the Constitution means in current times."

Again, there are divisions along political and ideological lines. Seventy-one percent of Republicans and 64 percent of independents prefer a nominee who follows the framers' intent, compared with 48 percent of Democrats.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS poll was conducted by telephone June 11-15 among a random national sample of 1,029 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

 
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