President Bush speaks today at the Texas State Capitol building in Austin.
(Larry Downing/Reuters)
New Blame Game
Bush Poses Different Kind of Challenge for Dems
Analysis By Gary Langer
W A S H I N G T O N, Jan. 4
— On economic concerns, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle got it just right today by blaming President Bush's tax cuts for worsening the recession. His problem is that Bush is getting it just right, too.
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That's a quick look at the Economy Wars from the perspective of public opinion. First Daschle: His attack on the tax cut homes in precisely on public sentiment. The cut was never popular. One reason was that most people didn't believe the surplus predictions — they thought cutting taxes would create a deficit (see Reagan, R.). And deficits are very unpopular. Hanging one around Bush's neck would be a three-pointer for the Dems.
Look also at Daschle's language: "They have one unchanging, unyielding solution they offer for every problem: tax cuts that go disproportionately to the most affluent." This, too, mirrors majority opinion; 54 percent last summer said the tax cut would mainly benefit the wealthy. (One question is why Daschle didn't go so far as to propose reducing the tax cut; our polling in early September found 57 percent support for the idea.)
But the Democrats have a problem (two, if you count Bush's war-pumped job approval rating). It's that this Bush isn't that Bush, the one who self-immolated on the economy in 1991 and '92.
Lest you forget, after the Gulf War the elder Bush experienced the fastest, steepest decline in presidential approval on record, plummeting from 90 percent on March 4, 1991 to 33 percent on Aug. 4, 1992 in our polling. One reason was the economy, but the other was Bush's apparent insensitivity to the hardship it caused. Polling results like this ABCNEWS/Washington Post question from July 19, 1992 were just devastating:
Are you satisfied that Bush understands the problems of the average American well enough to serve effectively as president?
Yes
No
7/19/92
34%
64%
Bush's mistake was in insisting that recovery had occurred — technically it had; the recession ended in March 1991. But practically, the recovery did not reach Main Street until years later, in the mid-1990s, by which time Bill Clinton, not Bush, was there to reap the benefits.
It's clear from his own public pronouncements that G.W. Bush is well aware of his father's failure in this area. This Bush, to our ear, is handling it exactly right, by stressing his understanding of the hardship a bad economy brings to average folks.
Nonetheless, like all presidents, he's vulnerable on this issue like no other. We've said it many times: Absent war, nothing impacts presidential approval like the economy.
There are thunderheads out there. Our polling a few weeks ago showed that the economy had moved up to receive as much public concern as terrorism. Unlike the war, Bush's work on the economy is not immune to partisanship: 90 percent of Republicans approve, but only 44 percent of Democrats agree. And remember this from last spring; it still lurks in the wings:
Do you think Bush cares more about protecting the interests of (ordinary working people) or cares more about protecting the interests of (large business corporations)?
Ordinary people
Large corporations
4/22/01
28%
60%
The public's near-unanimity around the war effort effectively insulates Bush for the time being. Down the road, though, the economy is the Democrats' best line of attack. Their problem is that this Bush does not seem nearly as tone-deaf as the old man.
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