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Indeed, the president's rating is remarkable for its resilience in the face of economic problems. On the eve of his election two years ago, 86 percent of likely voters said the economy was in good shape; today only 27 percent say so. The saving grace is that nearly two-thirds say it's not the president's fault.

This poll in fact shows a slight rise in concern about the economy (which the Democrats have stressed) as opposed to Iraq (a focus on the president's side). Last week likely voters divided evenly on which should be a higher priority for the nation; today a bit more, 53 percent, give precedence to the economy. And this view cuts strongly to vote choices: Those who give priority to the economy favor Democrat candidates for House by 2-1; those who give priority to Iraq favor Republicans by an even wider margin.

Congressional Vote Preference
	Democrats	Republicans
Likely Voters, 11/03/02	48%	48%
Actual Vote, 2000	47%	47%
Actual Vote, 1998	47%	48%
Actual Vote, 1996	48%	48%

But the slight rise in concern about the economy hasn't changed the fundamental result, a dead heat in vote preferences. Forty-eight percent of likely voters favor Democrats running for House, 48 percent Republicans — almost exactly how the last three national House votes have turned out, after a majority-Republican vote in 1994 that broke years of Democrat dominance.

This is a rough gauge only; House races (like Senate and gubernatorial races) are individual contests, not a single national race. But it does show the divisions in Americans' vote preferences — a split that was vividly demonstrated in the 2000 presidential election, but that actually first appeared in the 1996 national House vote.

Another issue in this election, with many Senate races expected to be very close, is simply how well the voting and vote-counting come off. Just 41 percent of Americans express confidence in the way votes are cast and counted in this country (up from 30 percent, however, just after the 2000 elections).

Even among likely voters in tomorrow's election, only about half — 49 percent — express confidence (either a "great deal" or "quite a lot") in the nation's voting system.

‘Most Important’ Factor in Vote
Issue		Likely Voters
Terrorism/Iraq		32%
The Economy		28%
Education		13%
Health Care		9%
Social Security		8%
Prescription Drugs		6%

There's a huge difference in confidence in the voting system between Democrats, who came out on the short side in 2000, and Republicans. Among Democrats just 34 percent express confidence in vote collection and counting; among Republicans this nearly doubles, to 66 percent.

A bad economy usually dominates elections, as it did so prominently in the 1992 presidential election. But war changes the equation, and the war on terrorism is no exception. In the 1992 exit poll 42 percent of voters said the economy was the most important issue in their vote, double the nearest contender. Today 28 percent of likely voters say it's the economy, while 32 percent cite either terrorism or Iraq.

The "most important issue" hardly tells the whole story, because in fact likely voters have a range of high-level concerns. Sixty-nine percent say the economy is very important in their vote choice, but 67 percent also say the war on terrorism is very important. And education, health care and Iraq register about as high.

Another factor — one that tends to help Republicans — involves basic, broad views of government. Sixty percent of likely voters say they prefer "smaller government with fewer services," while 35 percent prefer "larger government with more services." Those who favor larger government prefer Democrat candidates by 72 percent by 24 percent; but those who prefer smaller government favor Republicans by 61 percent to 35 percent.

There's no question that Bush's handling of the situation with Iraq is more controversial than his work on terrorism in general. On terrorism, 77 percent approve of his job performance, including 59 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of independents (as well as Republicans almost unanimously). On Iraq, though, his approval dives to 46 percent among independents and 27 percent of Democrats.

But it's also clear that Bush has struck a chord on Iraq. Just over a quarter of likely voters say they're "very worried" about the direction of the stock market, and a third are "very worried" about the economy's direction. But this jumps to 53 percent on the question of Iraq's efforts to develop nuclear weapons. (With the cooler rhetoric on North Korea, concern about its nuclear aspirations is lower.)

In terms of a president's impact, 1998 makes an interesting comparison to this election. Clinton, caught in the impeachment web, was perceived as the key issue in 1998; in fact, though, just 23 percent of likely voters said he was a direct factor in their choice, and they divided evenly between supporting and opposing him.

This year, by contrast, many more likely voters — 47 percent — say Bush is a direct factor in their vote. And their message is more lopsided: Twenty-nine percent say they want to show support for Bush through their vote; 18 percent want to express opposition to him. Another difference, dating in this case to 1994, involves perceptions of government. Consumer confidence is as bad now as it was then. But just before the 1994 election 73 percent expressed dissatisfaction with the way the federal government was working; today it's an even split.

Satisfaction with the government is lower than it was in December 2000 — not a surprise, given the weakened economy. But it's still far better than the levels that indicate real voter unrest.

Finally, there's the issue of who turns out to vote — a critical factor in the many close races around the country. On a national basis, population groups are dividing among familiar lines. There's a gender gap, with more women favoring Democratc candidates, more men favoring Republicans.

Which Party Is Favored?
Group	Democrats	Republicans
All	48%	48%
Men	42%	54%
Women	55%	42%
White	42%	54%
Non-White	74%	23%
<$30K	60%	36%
$30K-$49.9K	57%	40%
$50K-$74.9K	52%	44%
$75K+	37%	60%
Union	61%	36%
Non-Union	46%	51%
City	53%	42%
Suburb	48%	48%
Town	51%	47%
White Protestants
Evangelical	25%	71%
Non-Evangelical	49%	46%

Lower-income likely voters favor Democrats; higher-income, Republicans. Likely voters from union households favor Democrats by 61-36 percent; evangelical white Protestants favor Republicans even more broadly. Rural likely voters favor Republicans; urban likely voters favor Democrats; and small-town residents and suburbanites split.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 31-Nov. 3 among a random national sample of 845 likely voters. The results have a 3.5-point error margin. Field work was done by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at the Poll Vault.