Bush holds a slight edge in the latest ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll, with support from 48 percent of likely voters compared to 44 percent for Gore. But Gore has stabilized on some issues, still leads on knowledge — and the race remains close.

Mutual Assured Destruction
With his credibility under sharper attack since the first two debates, Gore’s rating as “honest and trustworthy” has fallen by 14 points, from 63 percent to 49 percent. But Bush’s rating on this score has fallen almost as far in the same time — the political equivalent, perhaps, of mutual assured destruction.

‘He's honest and trustworthy’
	10/15	9/6	Change
Gore	49%	63%	-14
Bush	53%	62%	- 9

At the same time Gore holds a slight lead among registered voters, 44 percent to 39 percent, in trust to handle “the situation in the Middle East.” That could be a function of his broader advantage on experience and knowledge of world affairs — two attributes that did not budge for Bush despite his well-received performance in the second debate.
     Indeed ratings on both issues and attributes show the conflict voters face: While each candidate has some strong qualities, each also has significant shortcomings when weighed against his opponent. Nobody’s perfect, and that would seem to apply here.
     On personal qualities, Bush is seen by a wide margin as offering the country “a fresh start” and as having a more appealing personality. But Gore continues to hold the lead on empathy with average Americans, as well as experience and knowledge.

% Saying ‘Yes’
	Gore	Bush
He’d provide a fresh start	32%	56%	Bush +24
He has an appealing personality	50%	60%	Bush +10
He’s honest and trustworthy	49%	53%	Bush + 4
He knows world affairs	72%	55%	Gore +17
He has the right experience	72%	59%	Gore +13
He understands your problems	57%	46%	Gore +11

Material Issues
It’s similar on issues. Bush has a 16-point lead in “holding down the size of government” and an eight-point advantage on taxes, one of the issues they’ve debated vigorously. But Gore leads by 13 points on health care — another hot topic — and he’s regained a seven-point lead on education, an issue on which he’d slipped last week.
     Gore also holds a 10-point lead in trust to protect the middle class, a keystone of his campaign; and a single-digit lead on the economy — a good bit less than he might hope, given the current economy.

‘Trust more to handle’
	Gore	Bush
Holding down size of gov’t	35%	51%	Bush +16
Holding taxes down	39%	47%	Bush + 8
Improving health care	49%	36%	Gore +13
Helping the middle class	50%	40%	Gore +10
Improving education	48%	41%	Gore + 7
Handling the economy	47%	41%	Gore + 6
Handling the Middle East	44%	39%	Gore + 5

Up for Grabs
The share of “changeable” voters has inched into single-digits in this poll, 9 percent. These are the likely voters who don’t feel strongly about their choice of candidate and say they might change their minds, or are outright undecided — i.e., the people who’re still up for grabs.
     Right now they divide about evenly between Bush and Gore, with more than a third still undecided. They’re disproportionately independents, and relatively few are Republicans; only 19 percent say they voted for Bob Dole in 1996. They’re more apt to be moderate than the larger population, and less likely to be either liberal or conservative.
     For the candidates, the most difficult attribute of these changeable voters is that they tend to be less engaged politically, which makes it harder to win and hold their support. They’re only about half as likely as other voters to be following the campaign very closely. And they’re somewhat less likely to plan to watch the third and final debate Tuesday night.

Moveable Group
Women have been one of the more movable groups throughout the campaign, and some of that continues: A month ago, Gore led among women by 18 points; now it’s down to eight points. Bush’s lead among men (now +16) has been more stable.
     Preferences also divide by age and income. Younger voters, 18-30, support Gore by a 53 percent to 39 percent margin, but that’s reversed among those over 60. (Older voters supported Bill Clinton by a 12-point margin in 1992, slipping to four points in 1996.) The race is closer for the ages in between, with Bush having a slight edge.
     Likely voters in the lowest income group support Gore more than two-to-one over Bush, while Bush leads by 52 percent to 43 percent in the top income group. The race is close among middle-income voters, where Gore has focused much of his attention.
     Finally, the race remains deadlocked among independents — ultimately the key swing voter group in national elections.

Voter Groups:
	Bush	Gore
Women	41%	49%
Men	54%	38%
Age:
18-30	39%	53%
31-44	50%	46%
45-60	47%	42%
61+	50%	40%
Income:
Below 30K	29%	64%
30-50K	49%	46%
50-75K	46%	49%
Over 75K	52%	43%
Region:
East	39%	53%
Midwest	51%	38%
South	51%	43%
West	47%	43%
Independents	44%	42%
Changeable voters	27%	30%

Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 12-15, 2000. The results are based on a random sample of 1,103 likely voters, estimating a 51 percent turnout. The issues questions are based on interviews with a subset of 946 registered voters. The results have a three-point margin of error. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.